Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Meltdown complete..lol..That was a good one..Matches some of mine from days of yore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yeah guidance overall is pretty flat. I think thats what we need right now to have any shot. We all know how these trend closer to verification time. I would rather this whiff than get 3+" of rain again. I mean, this could go out to sea....there are southern streamers that whiff. But I'd rather have it whiffing, than on top of us at this early juncture. ...and agreed...I'll take cirrus over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I mean, I like Bob, but it's not as though I was talking amounts....I don't think preliminary qualitative conjecture is unwaranted within a week of go-time...especially considering the enormous travel ramifications at play. Sorry, but.... I wasn't singling you out. Geez. In general, this place just over-analyzes every model to the Nth degree. Is it South, is it North, is it rain, is it snow, where is the 850 line? The QPF is lame. It's pointless to discuss these sorts of specifics on a system at this lead time imo. Just see that there is a system modeled and get it down to the day 4 mark and than have at it. I don't know, it's just how I feel these days when it comes to this stuff. Call me a debbie-downer, call me a bad mod, call me whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 You can call me Al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Call me maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Call on me...call on meeee... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I wasn't singling you out. Geez. In general, this place just over-analyzes every model to the Nth degree. Is it South, is it North, is it rain, is it snow, where is the 850 line? The QPF is lame. It's pointless to discuss these sorts of specifics on a system at this lead time imo. Just see that there is a system modeled and get it down to the day 4 mark and than have at it. I don't know, it's just how I feel these days when it comes to this stuff. Call me a debbie-downer, call me a bad mod, call me whatever. This is true, but I was only speaking of the general concensus. Anyway, this is what people do here....become completely and utterly immersed in a hobby, and in many cases a life long passion. It's a nice escape from the daily grind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Meltdowns already and we haven't even made it to Christmas. I can only imagine what January and February are going to be like around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Did someone hijack Scott's account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Meltdowns already and we haven't even made it to Christmas. I can only imagine what January and February are going to be like around here. Who is melting down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Did someone hijack Scott's account? LOL, just playing. In a good mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Who is melting down? I think the board jargon envelopes any type of passionate retort into the "melt down" categorization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I think the board jargon envelopes any type of passionate retort into the "melt down" categorization. News to me. I don't really care if it rains or snows or whiffs. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 May have to watch for some spotty freezing drizzle tonight/ early tomorrow with light east flow over low level cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Congtats to the south for what appears to be a white christmas you guys deserve it. I will be smoking cirrus till after christmas and will enjoy my brown lawn LOL. Really looks good for you guys! Congrats! :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I wasn't singling you out. Geez. In general, this place just over-analyzes every model to the Nth degree. Is it South, is it North, is it rain, is it snow, where is the 850 line? The QPF is lame. It's pointless to discuss these sorts of specifics on a system at this lead time imo. Just see that there is a system modeled and get it down to the day 4 mark and than have at it. I don't know, it's just how I feel these days when it comes to this stuff. Call me a debbie-downer, call me a bad mod, call me whatever. well this is a weather board, so if there is one place where things will get overanalyzed it will be here. I see nothing wrong with that and everybody can choose to participate as they wish. When the Euro has a system a certain way for multiple runs a week out and other guidance is doing something very different it is even more interesting....so we look for little indicators. Thanks for being a mod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I think the board jargon envelopes any type of passionate retort into the "melt down" categorization. Easy way out using the term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Don't know why I'm doing this but literal interpretation is a good hit for the southern 2/3 of CT.many have already beat me up for this when I mentioned it 2 days ago but at this time frame,setup and evolution remind me of 12-19-09. Of course that is not my forecast but seeing some support for a SNE scrapper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 lol Ray. Crisp morning. Looking forward to warmer temps mid-week, and the possibility of more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I sort of thought that's what we do one here... look at models, what ifs, see if it was right... Otherwise, what do we do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Picnic tables will be white no matter the outcome of this, another upslope week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Talking with Mike V, we note the Nino signal for whatever reason is fading a bit for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 many have already beat me up for this when I mentioned it 2 days ago but at this time frame,setup and evolution remind me of 12-19-09. Of course that is not my forecast but seeing some support for a SNE scrapper. I wouldn't beat you up for that. I could see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Talking with Mike V, we note the Nino signal for whatever reason is fading a bit for now. How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 How so? Just the pattern in general may not be classic Nino for awhile. It could be good though because we still have lingering STJ. The next two weeks almost look more Nina-like as compared to Nino with the cold plunging into the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 A lot of talk about storms and the Euro. Sometimes its hard to figure whether the talk is next weekend or on Christmas. I'm assuming that the midweek event is non wintry in SNE. I"ve been looking over the last few pages but still not clear. Can someone clarify? (This is not a, "how much in mby" question as it is far too out there for that kind of stuff anyhow). Also, is there free access to the euro anywhere? GFS op info is a whole different world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 A lot of talk about storms and the Euro. Sometimes its hard to figure whether the talk is next weekend or on Christmas. I'm assuming that the midweek event is non wintry in SNE. I"ve been looking over the last few pages but still not clear. Can someone clarify? (This is not a, "how much in mby" question as it is far too out there for that kind of stuff anyhow). Also, is there free access to the euro anywhere? GFS op info is a whole different world Mid week is a non event. We are speaking of Sat night/Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Here ya go Junior http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=ecmwf®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2014121500&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Talking with Mike V, we note the Nino signal for whatever reason is fading a bit for now.That shouldnt matter for us. Probably better off as it shuts down Pac jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Just looked at the entire pantheon of guidance relative to this event for the first time, and was surprised to see how flat everything is. Fine by me. I'd rather smoke cirrus, than see the picnic tables decorated in white for the holiday. Haha nice attitude. If I can't have it no one can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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