jamesnichols89 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yes Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yes Scott. First off, the solution itself is not very common. An ULL that wraps around snow like that? Eh, maybe flurries. Secondly the lower 1500' looks pretty mild. Looks like non-accumulating 34F snow if it happened there. I mean sure, never say never...it just looks like an unlikely solution to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 First off, the solution itself is not very common. An ULL that wraps around snow like that? Eh, maybe flurries. Secondly the lower 1500' looks pretty mild. Looks like non-accumulating 34F snow if it happened there. I mean sure, never say never...it just looks like an unlikely solution to get snow. What's keeping it from looking good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 As far as the euro ending cold, we are about 10 days from the changes starting. These aren't felt usually right away so it may take a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 What's keeping it from looking good? It's the only model doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 It's the only model doing it. True, so if like the NAM and EURO showed something similar to it say by 12z Monday, then it will be more likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Wow is the GFS parallel run sucky at day 6 scores. Oy Vey. It has a non-event at day 7. Generally, it has seemed like a model that is worthless, haha. Too bad because the resolution seems pretty high. It is showing a little refresher for NNE on Thursday night into Friday. The horrible model has a few 6-hour panels like this with a decent snow shower signal with MVL at 0.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 True, so if like the NAM and EURO showed something similar to it say by 12z Monday, then it will be more likely? The NAM is garbage, I wouldn't really look at it until 24 hrs out. I suppose if the euro showed it then perhaps, but my guess is the euro won't shift to a GFS solution. The GFS as is still looks crappy for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The NAM is garbage, I wouldn't really look at it until 24 hrs out. I suppose if the euro showed it then perhaps, but my guess is the euro won't shift to a GFS solution. The GFS as is still looks crappy for you. Yeah its still 5 days away from Friday, so time for change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 They ended mild back in November. That is hardly encouraging considering November ended cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 HIRES models in line with the 00z Monday observations on water vapor imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That is hardly encouraging considering November ended cold. Just don't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 @capecodweather: Ensembles continue to show big-time flip coming later in the month. Think heating bills and snow shovels. http://t.co/I23LFO5Adp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I will wait until 12z runs tomorrow to determine if something can happen on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Don't they always? No. In fact only the past few days is the cold signal growing sand today it's hammer time. Don't confuse euro ens with GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 That is hardly encouraging considering November ended cold. Ummmm...my birthday is 12/1. It was 67 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Ummmm...my birthday is 12/1. It was 67 degrees. I think he missed the part where I said we are getting inside 10 days for the changes. Hush little weenie don't you cry, Scooter's gonna make your snowflakes fly, And if those snowstorms aren't a miss, Your gonna end up in snow bliss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I think he missed the part where I said we are getting inside 10 days for the changes. Hush little weenie don't you cry, Scooter's gonna make your snowflakes fly, And if those snowstorms aren't a miss, Your gonna end up in snow bliss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 As far as the euro ending cold, we are about 10 days from the changes starting. These aren't felt usually right away so it may take a few days.So really were talking 2015 before this monotonous pattern gets replaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 So really were talking 2015 before this monotonous pattern gets replaced. Christmas is within 10 days, so way before than, Christmas Day is when pattern switches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 So really were talking 2015 before this monotonous pattern gets replaced. Ehh, not that far. Last week of the month could feature chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Next two weeks will feature chances, whether or not they work out that's the 1 million dollar question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 So really were talking 2015 before this monotonous pattern gets replaced. No the wheels are in motion prior to Christmas. It won't be that long. I could see one messy storm near Christmas and perhaps another after as an example. One or both could be on the snowier side. Tough to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Nice to see BOX aboard the "possibly a system" for the weekend train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Los Angeles had a small tornado today. Niño. I remember the one that damaged the convention center in march or 1983 during a strong niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Los Angeles had a small tornado today. Niño. I remember the one that damaged the convention center in march or 1983 during a strong niño. I think there were 7 that day. The tornado you speak of happened Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Los Angeles had a small tornado today. Niño. I remember the one that damaged the convention center in march or 1983 during a strong niño.I thought there was one a couple days ago in LA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I think he missed the part where I said we are getting inside 10 days for the changes. Hush little weenie don't you cry, Scooter's gonna make your snowflakes fly, And if those snowstorms aren't a miss, Your gonna end up in snow bliss. I set myself up for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 00z NAM has a stronger secondary low and a faster transition to the secondary low south of Nantucket, MA with a max of QPF near 1" south of Nantucket, MA. Let's see if the GFS jumps on board, because both models are at odds over the Tuesday night into Wednesday storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Thinking Rain/Snow for this weekend, 25-26th snow, and then a few days later snow. With a parade of southern stream systems in play and return of the northern stream into the US, chances for phasing storms is more likely with chances for snowfall the later you get into next week. The first of the series will be a rain to snow idea Tuesday night/Wednesday of this week. There is the potential for snow showers on Friday with the passage of the northern stream H5 low. Then a few days later on the 21/22 there is the potential for rain and snow, followed by a colder storm scenario on the 25/26th. We are still a few days away from the lead shortwave, so we have time to figure out the rest later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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