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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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Am I missing something gentlemen? The midweek storm

looks like rain for most on the Euro OP and than the follow storm is close but mainly OTS. Obviously the evolution of the first storm will have great impacts on the track of the 2nd so any early conjecture would be mere speculation.

 

Yeah--I don't see anything to get in the mid-week to get excited about.  Maybe Pete will have a little mix, but rain for everyone else.

 

Next.

 

24.7/21

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The Euro is crazy strong with that ULL that traverses the NE before the storm, that sucker then basically acts as a 50/50 to force the system off the coast. The entire setup as pretty much most Mets have been saying likely depends on the predecessor low whether it he 12/21 hinging on 12/17 or 12/24 hinging on 12/21, without a -NAO the previous system really is going to need to bomb off ERN CANADA

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Conjecture is the AmWx way :)

Somewhere between excessive optimism and pessimism is usually reality. The first storm will somehow need to dig and transfer energy much sooner and really intensify for most of us to see any snowfall which is unlikely. Because the track and evolution of the second storm is so dependent on the first storm and it is still 8 days away the probability of snowfall is also inherently low however with a mean storm track to the south of us there should be a better supply of cold air and hence somewhat more of a potential.

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So you're telling us all ensembles indicate a warm, cutting rainer and no chance of white Xmas?

It's 10 days out. And most adults understand it's nbd. The bigger take home is that the euro ensembles are now legit wintry 11-15 right after 12/25. So a white NYD is a much higher probability.

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The pattern is just not good until after Christmas. It stinks, but oh well. Hopefully people can wish 12/22 to fruition.

I agree. The pattern change was never before...it's a step down process. Right after Christmas heading into early JAN is when things should take off.

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Yeah it does, just disappointed in things until Christmas. There is still some hope for 12/22.

If you think about it, the changes started showing up around the 5th in the guidance making them valid 12/19-20. Typically big regime changes end up getting pushed back about a week to 10 days due to models trying to rush them when they are first sniffed. The one week delay seems par for the course.

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If you think about it, the changes started showing up around the 5th in the guidance making them valid 12/19-20. Typically big regime changes end up getting pushed back about a week to 10 days due to models trying to rush them when they are first sniffed. The one week delay seems par for the course.

Yeah , but this month has been awful. It's not like it has been a torch and getting snow is a pipe dream....it's been tantalizingly close. To me, that's frustrating. Even a 3-6" before the month is over would be great . I'm hoping that's attainable. It's like pulling teeth to get a White Christmas around here lately. And Chanukah...lol. Although last year had that for you to start.

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The pattern is just not good until after Christmas. It stinks, but oh well. Hopefully people can wish 12/22 to fruition.

I think it's too early to tell what the "pattern" will look like after Christmas.  WIth so much potential storminess and wave interaction, it's tough to tell how things will look even as soon as one week from now.  I think we can gather some basic idea though.  Temps look marginal at best, which is typical for December (and much of the winter along the coastal plane).  But then again so many of our snowstorms occur with marginal temperatures and :so so looking "patterns."  And too many great looking patterns lead to cold, dry, and boring.

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I'll take my chances with just a +PNA in place.  I also think we will see some nice snows today along the coast, especially east of HYA on the Cape.  OES combine with a shortwave aloft at h5 will provide the area with a nice scenery of snow today.  Not much accumulation, but something nice to see fall from the sky.

 

Also the 18th clipper is close to diving south of SNE Islands, we just need a better secondary shortwave energy.  NAM has more energy swinging through then the GFS does, so we need to watch this evolution.

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I think it's too early to tell what the "pattern" will look like after Christmas. WIth so much potential storminess and wave interaction, it's tough to tell how things will look even as soon as one week from now. I think we can gather some basic idea though. Temps look marginal at best, which is typical for December (and much of the winter along the coastal plane). But then again so many of our snowstorms occur with marginal temperatures and :so so looking "patterns." And too many great looking patterns lead to cold, dry, and boring.

I think it will be a decent pattern after Christmas. How long that will last, I do not know, but it looks good for the region IMO. I know very well how difficult it can be in December. It would be nice to do better than .5" by 12/25.

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