December-winter is finally here!

[CT Rain]

What? I've been the one actually posting reality today . A normal pattern offers wintry chances. Maybe they pan out maybe not. My posts have been dead nuts on today

[Damage In Tolland]

i was scratching my head at your tweets this afternoon. A very mild next few weeks ??

[Damage In Tolland]

It's a condescending tone. As if you are saying "see I am right." It's a crappy pattern. It could be worse, but it's rather hostile.

They are words on a weather blog. No one is talking or can hear any tones. Tone deaf

[CT Valley Snowman]

That Sums it up nicely. Yesterday my pack took a hit. today was close to a knockout blow. Still decent piles and shaded areas holding on. once you go south of BDL absolutely nothing.

[powderfreak]

Low levels will almost certainly outperform the mid-level temps on the cold side if we have a lot of Quebec highs.

 

I'm hoping this will really benefit the NNE ski areas. After skiing Kmart on Saturday, I was thinking it would realy suck to "waste" the great start. Hopefully any melting is minimal and the resorts can tack on marginal snow events. The sensible wx could be quite a contrast to a SW flow in the low levels with -2C 850 temps or a colder 850 temp in the means, but interrupted by a 5-6 hour deluge cutter.

 

The Devil is in the details and the details might break favorable for us this time. Esp the ski areas...they didn't last January.

 

The snowmaking snow is fine, the natural snow won't do well in this pattern unless we get some bigger QPF events to give it some heft.  Snowmaking snow is like sleet ratios though, and at like 2-5 feet thick, that ain't going anywhere.

 

As long as we get these periods of cold (like today/tonight/tomorrow, and again Thur/Fri) mixed in, the snowmaking spots will be fine. 

 

I was looking over the 12z ECM operational run and you can easily see how the 925mb temps are pretty much the coldest level on average.  Even that system in Day 7-10 it has cut-off over New England, its got torched H7 and H85 but sits 0C to -2C at 925mb in CNE/NNE.

 

Its all la la range right now, but at day 10 you can see the type of pattern setting up...it has 700mb temps of -3C, -12C at 850mb, and -18C at 925mb in this area. 

 

Overall that run definitely seemed to have the warmth muted below the Picnic Table elevations.

[Damage In Tolland]

The snowmaking snow is fine, the natural snow won't do well in this pattern unless we get some bigger QPF events to give it some heft. Snowmaking snow is like sleet ratios though, and at like 2-5 feet thick, that ain't going anywhere.

As long as we get these periods of cold (like today/tonight/tomorrow, and again Thur/Fri) mixed in, the snowmaking spots will be fine.

I was looking over the 12z ECM operational run and you can easily see how the 925mb temps are pretty much the coldest level on average. Even that system in Day 7-10 it has cut-off over New England, its got torched H7 and H85 but sits 0C to -2C at 925mb in CNE/NNE.

Its all la la range right now, but at day 10 you can see the type of pattern setting up...it has 700mb temps of -3C, -12C at 850mb, and -18C at 925mb in this area.

Overall that run definitely seemed to have the warmth muted below the Picnic Table elevations.

What you described there would be a nice icestorm setup over next 10 days. Just gotta get the storm in the right spot and the high at the same time

[powderfreak]

 

lol...guess where the last storm tracked and had the largest QPF dumping of snow? 

[powderfreak]

What you described there would be a nice icestorm setup over next 10 days. Just gotta get the storm in the right spot and the high at the same time

 

It really does have that sort of vibe...like I looped the H85 temps and precip and was like eh that doesn't look too pretty but it got much more interesting when you loop the 925mb temperatures.  There's definitely an icy vibe to this pattern, more so than snow.  Wasn't 1997-98 an El Nino? Haha.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

starts on the 10th, pattern change complete by the 25th? Time to take a temporary reprieve from model watching. November already warranted much more than I expected.

Lol maybe. Pattern change starts around Christmas, complete by early Jan? Who knows. People were warned months ago that nino Decembers can be pretty ugly. It appears thats what we have on our hands.

The million dollar questions is if and when we flip it around.

Model watching is probably going to take a break for a few weeks. Finals over that time period anyway.

Maybe we get a couple of well timed events that lay down a coating or an inch, other than that I think its curtains for a while. Just being realistic

[TalcottWx]

Winter months have exploded here, as they did last year. We don't have them in the same abundancy in Boston. Here in Andover, they're everywhere. Areas of New England are infested around the worst in country.

here's an excerpt about them:

Males and female moths of both species emerge around Thanksgiving time and may continue to emerge well through December whenever milder temperatures prevail during that time period. The moths of both species are attracted to lights. Females of both species will orient on a vertical silhouette, such as a tree trunk, and race up it while emitting a sex pheromone to attract males of her species. Clouds of male winter moths can be seen flying around tree trunks, resting on the bark and mating with females at this time

[Damage In Tolland]

It really does have that sort of vibe...like I looped the H85 temps and precip and was like eh that doesn't look too pretty but it got much more interesting when you loop the 925mb temperatures.  There's definitely an icy vibe to this pattern, more so than snow.  Wasn't 1997-98 an El Nino? Haha.

Sounds like Haydon has been following along anonymously with us today.

 

JUST

LOOKING AT THESE HEIGHT ANOMALIES...IT MIGHT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL

FOR ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH AT

TIMES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOUTS OF SHALLOW

COLD AIR TO OFFSET SOME MILD DAYS. WHILE WINTRY WEATHER IS UNLIKELY

ON THE COAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK...CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD

OF WINTRY MIX/ICE ACROSS  THE INTERIOR SOMETIME THIS

WEEKEND GIVEN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That Sums it up nicely. Yesterday my pack took a hit. today was close to a knockout blow. Still decent piles and shaded areas holding on. once you go south of BDL absolutely nothing.

Good riddance. Nothing pleasant about a melting slushy inch. All I see is mud.

[Logan11]

Well fwiw (not much LOL), the weatherbell 240 hr total snowfall map has around 18" up there. It has 10-12" here. Cumulative from these various interior events I guess.

The snowmaking snow is fine, the natural snow won't do well in this pattern unless we get some bigger QPF events to give it some heft.  Snowmaking snow is like sleet ratios though, and at like 2-5 feet thick, that ain't going anywhere.

 

As long as we get these periods of cold (like today/tonight/tomorrow, and again Thur/Fri) mixed in, the snowmaking spots will be fine. 

 

I was looking over the 12z ECM operational run and you can easily see how the 925mb temps are pretty much the coldest level on average.  Even that system in Day 7-10 it has cut-off over New England, its got torched H7 and H85 but sits 0C to -2C at 925mb in CNE/NNE.

 

Its all la la range right now, but at day 10 you can see the type of pattern setting up...it has 700mb temps of -3C, -12C at 850mb, and -18C at 925mb in this area. 

 

Overall that run definitely seemed to have the warmth muted below the Picnic Table elevations.

[powderfreak]

Well fwiw (not much LOL), the weatherbell 240 hr total snowfall map has around 18" up there. It has 10-12" here. Cumulative from these various interior events I guess.

Those are more useless than most snow maps. I don't know what they do at weatherbell to make those but I've found they are the worse offenders. It's like if any part of the column is below freezing, count it as snow.

[Randy4Confluence]

Well, it was a great winter this year...and we're so glad that we were able to enjoy it early. Now that the cold has wobbled to the other side of the planet, and that early starts almost always lead to meh at best ( save 2002) we've decided to shut it down this year. We'll see

Everyone next year! And be careful out there.

[Typhoon Tip]

Sounds like Haydon has been following along anonymously with us today.

 

JUST

LOOKING AT THESE HEIGHT ANOMALIES...IT MIGHT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL

FOR ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH AT

TIMES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOUTS OF SHALLOW

COLD AIR TO OFFSET SOME MILD DAYS. WHILE WINTRY WEATHER IS UNLIKELY

ON THE COAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK...CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD

OF WINTRY MIX/ICE ACROSS  THE INTERIOR SOMETIME THIS

WEEKEND GIVEN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR.

 

i think we've been covering this for a couple days now; this is/was not really a "torch" (though that term is entirely subjective nonsense to begin with...) and never could be with polar high migrating E ... due N of our lat/lon. 

[CoastalWx]

Weeklies don't look much different from last week. They have a decent look in NW Canada and lower heights again in the east...especially southeast. Still not real ridging in the Davis Straits. I guess that idea is them at they have things improving week 3 into week 4. Of course we all know how accurate they are at that time too.

[J Paul Gordon]

Well, it was a great winter this year...and we're so glad that we were able to enjoy it early. Now that the cold has wobbled to the other side of the planet, and that early starts almost always lead to meh at best ( save 2002) we've decided to shut it down this year. We'll see

Everyone next year! And be careful out there.

Seriously? On December 1st?

[JC-CT]

Seriously? On December 1st?

 

Your sarcasm detector needs a little work.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

36/33. Cooled well off a high of 50F today.

Still about 70% snow cover here but less in town.

[Ginx snewx]

I have sleet mixing in

[JC-CT]

I have sleet mixing in

Just got home from work, pelting right now. Some minor accumulations on the cars.

[Damage In Tolland]

Let's see if this is snow when it moves In here. Moving in shortly

[CT Valley Snowman]

Nice Ana front type deal going on right now with sw flow aloft overrunning the surface boundry with some mixing going on on the northern fringe of the precip shield. Shouldn't amount to much but impressive given some areas were over 60 earlier this afterrnoon.

[Ginx snewx]

Nice Ana front type deal going on right now with sw flow aloft overrunning the surface boundry with some mixing going on on the northern fringe of the precip shield. Shouldn't amount to much but impressive given some areas were over 60 earlier this afterrnoon.

I was 66, saw report near IJD, Scotland Ct,of flakes mixed in, very impressive air mass change

[jamesnichols89]

18z GFS looked better with the December 8-9th system, just a day later with it in timing issues this far out.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Let's see if this is snow when it moves In here. Moving in shortly

Might have a hard time saturating north of 84 with dewpoint depressions and dry air further removed from the forcing along the front. I'm not finding many surface obs in NW CT and Eastern NY to back up the radar. 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully this post does not get twisted..lol, but there is still the 10-12 give or take timeframe for something perhaps.

[JC-CT]

Hopefully this post does not get twisted..lol, but there is still the 10-12 give or take timeframe for something perhaps.

How many inches for my backyard? To the nearest tenth please.

[Ginx snewx]

Might have a hard time saturating north of 84 with dewpoint depressions and dry air further removed from the forcing along the front. I'm not finding many surface obs in NW CT and Eastern NY to back up the radar.

I was honestly dumbfounded when I was pelted while out with the dogs,pretty cool.