UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Or maybe it's not. GEFS were all on the benchmark at 6z. But it drastically reduced the precip shield on the NW front... I would be beyond shocked if this run verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This happened at 6z too. Started to look N and W of previous runs and when it gets close to our latitude it kicks E. NAM did same. GFS is seeing something different than the Euro at that point. Time will tell which is right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 But it drastically reduced the precip shield on the NW front... I would be beyond shocked if this run verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z GFS para is also a benchmark track. Warm for the coast but dryer to the north and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Why because it shows less snow for your area? What is your meteorological reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 How much liquid equivalent did the 0z euro have for far northwest areas like sussex county and poconos area for comparison to latest gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It is a bit west and def warmer. The precip shield would be a killer for NW areas. Difference between 5 and 10 inches! I haven't looked out in your area but surface temps around at EWR are virtually identical to the last run...+1.5C during the main portion of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Is be surprised if the GFS PARA isn't further West inside BM. That could be the bias fix... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hanging on to hope NYC! It snows here no matter what it seems, so I'm cool with sharing the love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Why because it shows less snow for your area? What is your meteorological reasoning? Uhhh no? Because it's the first model run to show the cut off in a string of runs from the GFS that have been inconsistent lol... If u read my previous posts which apparently you haven't, I've mentioned I assumed a eastern track, but as for a sharp NW cut off I doubt... Now would like to explain you're " meteorological " view as to why you think it may verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I haven't looked out in your area but surface temps around at EWR are virtually identical to the last run...+1.5C during the main portion of the eventI'm in Sussex County so I am not worried about temps with that GFS track. More the precip field! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yep. Should be a really interesting storm to track. The BL starts out near 40 east of city and never drops enough since the best VV's remain out over the ocean. Maybe a few hours of mid 30's snow for a little on the grass with this track toward the end of the storm. But even for that we would need a Euro shift east since the 850's stayed above freezing right through the storm on 0Z. Even a Euro GFS compromise wouldn't do much for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It is a bit west and def warmer. The precip shield would be a killer for NW areas. Difference between 5 and 10 inches!Actually, looking at it again though, the precip shield hasn't changed as much as we might think anyway :Compare 6z : To 12z : Silly analyzing it all anyway at this point, but just thought I'd mention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 What is with the SREF Plumes for LAG? Still show 7"+ SNOW out of 1.6"+ liquid. It peaks the storm in the PM Wed. when it shows temps. and DP both above 32! Those 850mb, not shown, must be very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Here is the 06z GFS valid 18z Wednesday, you can see the lead shortwave is over NC and the trailing shortwave is over the bootheel of Missouri. Taking a look at the 12z GFS also valid 18z Wednesday you can see the differences. You now have a piece over the DC area, one piece over SC and the trailing energy is further back over central MO. Those are some major changes regarding time and placement of important features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Actually, looking at it again though, the precip shield hasn't changed as much as we might think anyway : Compare 6z : To 12z : ImageUploadedByTapatalk1416844706.717733.jpg Silly analyzing it all anyway at this point, but just thought I'd mention Yeah. Hard to see on Phone but good visual. The early track made it look like there would be more expansive field of heavier precip N and W, but it scooted east again like 6z and wound up near the same point at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The BL starts out near 40 east of city and never drops enough since the best VV's remain out over the ocean. Maybe a few hours of mid 30's snow for a little on the grass with this track toward the end of the storm. But even for that we would need a Euro shift east since the 850's stayed above freezing right through the storm on 0Z. Even a Euro GFS compromise wouldn't do much for LI. Agree. City west might be in better shape then Islip east. Still too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 at KNYC at hour 54 850`s are minus 2 at hour 60 850`s are minus 4. BL is 34 . It`s going to snow in NYC wed and EWR which was my orig thougths . If the park walks away with 3 inches out of this I don`t see how anyone could be shocked . Snowfall rates will cool the column and the surface will drop fast enough to keep it snow for a while . NYC winds are NNE .With a crap BL you are prob looking at 5 to 1 ratios . I don`t see an all rain or just slush event in NYC and the Bronx . The Euro UKMET and GFS are on board . Think once east of JFK its a painful miss . Once to central Nassau there`s likely to be a E wind for a while . Think the Hudson could be a real dividing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 at KNYC at hour 54 850`s are minus 2 at hour 60 850`s are minus 4. BL is 33 - to 34 . It`s going to snow in NYC wed . If the park walks away with 3 inches out of this I don`t see how anyone could be shocked . Snowfall rates will cool the column and the surface will drop fast enough to keep it snow for a while . NYC winds are NNE .With a crap BL you are prob looking at 5 to 1 ratios . I don`t see an all rain or just slush event in NYC and the Bronx . The Euro UKMET and GFS are on board . Think once east of JFK its a painful miss . Once to central Nassau there`s likely to be a E wind for a while . I'm still not 100% convinced we get accumulations in the city or nearby burbs but we'll see. N&W are fine and east is rain but I think its a tough forecast for NE/Central NJ & NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 My thinking exactly. Going with elevation I might go over an inch places like the north shore hills, palisades and Staten Island. Unfortunately for us coastal folks it's allot of mid to high 30s rain. Even when snow is falling and it will fall it's still in the mid 30s and not sticking. I was down in DC for a storm just like this at this time of year a few years ago. In the city itself nada. Just north west and a couple hundred feet up and there was a nice snow storm. I think we are just a month to early here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This all reminds me of the early Nov 2012 storm where it was forecast to be mostly rain or a rain/snow mix despite a perfect track. Instead several inches of snow fell including over a foot in parts of south central nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Im out on this one. Good luck to all in NYC/N&W barring a last second hail mary miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm still not 100% convinced we get accumulations in the city or nearby burbs but we'll see. N&W are fine and east is rain but I think its a tough forecast for NE/Central NJ & NYC It's always a tough call for NYC with every storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 One of the reasons why the GFS is trending dryer N & W is because as the model begins catching on to a more organized, stronger system, the precip fields are becoming more and more wrapped up. The best deformation banding on the GFS just clips the twin forks on the way to Cape Cod. You're going to need a track inside of the benchmark to ensure that you get into better dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This all reminds me of the early Nov 2012 storm where it was forecast to be mostly rain or a rain/snow mix despite a perfect track. Instead several inches of snow fell including over a foot in parts of south central nj. Yup, this is a very dangerous forecast scenario near the coast, the boundary layer is borderline but the wind direction is good, any sort of heavy precipitation rates and its going to be snow...I'm glad I'll be off and not forecasting this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This all reminds me of the early Nov 2012 storm where it was forecast to be mostly rain or a rain/snow mix despite a perfect track. Instead several inches of snow fell including over a foot in parts of south central nj. I was just thinking about that storm. No one mentioned snow with that storm for NYC. I ended up with a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This all reminds me of the early Nov 2012 storm where it was forecast to be mostly rain or a rain/snow mix despite a perfect track. Instead several inches of snow fell including over a foot in parts of south central nj.Not even close to this storm at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's always a tough call for NYC with every storm lol. Well this is true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ive been telling family and friends 6 inches in abe, and 4 inches in middlesex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This is going to end up closing off an h5 low. Watch as we start getting closer to the event especially the meso/hires models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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