winter_warlock Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Disagree. Sun-angle in late Nov is far different than March. I'll take my chances with a border-line event now far more than I would in March. hmm ok good point about the angle I figured the angle in nov wouldn't be all that much of a difference then in late march, but I can see how it would be different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We have a better sun angle than we did Jan 26 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 4-8 final call imby Hmmm...you didn't specify what units. I wonder if with it being a busy holiday weekend if that will change the warning criteria?? so lesser snow amounts may call for a warning because its a holiday weekend No, warning criteria will stay the same. I'm sure they'll just phrase the text of whatever watch/warning/advisory is issued to describe the apocalyptic travel impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 hmm ok good point about the angle I figured the angle in nov wouldn't be all that much of a difference then in late march, but I can see how it would be different Its wayyy different. We are less than a month from the solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 looking good for what part? im in Baltimore county DC along the I-95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hmmm...you didn't specify what units. No, warning criteria will stay the same. I'm sure they'll just phrase the text of whatever watch/warning/advisory is issued to describe the apocalyptic travel impacts. D.C. does that to people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DC along the I-95 corridor ahh ok ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Its wayyy different. We are less than a month from the solstice. ohh ok ty ill pay more attention to sun angle for now on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 ohh ok ty ill pay more attention to sun angle for now onIt's fairly simple. As you go a direction from December 21st, the sun angle becomes more problematic. Our sun angle will be that of Mid/Late January, so that will be the least of our concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hmmm...you didn't specify what units. No, warning criteria will stay the same. I'm sure they'll just phrase the text of whatever watch/warning/advisory is issued to describe the apocalyptic travel impacts ahh ok ty bud. how little did I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's fairly simple. As you go a direction from December 21st, the sun angle becomes more problematic. Our sun angle will be that of Mid/Late January, so that will be the least of our concerns. cool so sun angle isn't really an issue like I thought , I stand corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I have to slow down or I will burn myself out which I did last year on almost every event.... Obligatory storm commentary - I'm sticking with my algorithm from last night which gives me like 2.2" Average of (3/16/07+12/5/03+12/5/09+3/6/13+12/8/13+12/10/13+3/25/14+10/29/11) x 1.75 = total. zwyts 97 Bob Chill 42 C.A.P.E. 37 yoda 28 mitchnick 28 WxUSAF 28 Highzenberg 25 BTRWx 23 EasternUSWX 17 Ian 16 nj2va 15 Amped 14 PhineasC 13 winter_warlock 13 Ok, so where am I in that list...lol. A couple of days ago I said, jokingly, that I'd take P003. It's remarkable how similar the latest gfs is to that earlier ens member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think the city dwellers ought to be encouraged by the lower sun angle this time of year compared to March storms. It could mean the bigger difference in those places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 hmm ok good point about the angle I figured the angle in nov wouldn't be all that much of a difference then in late march, but I can see how it would be different I could do the math, but for a quick response I'd say the sun angle on last years St Paddy snow would be about 20 degrees higher than it will be Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I could do the math, but for a quick response I'd say the sun angle on last years St Paddy snow would be about 20 degrees higher than it will be Wednesday. wow that is a huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think the city dwellers ought to be encouraged by the lower sun angle this time of year compared to March storms. It could mean the bigger difference in those places. my biggest issue is I live on the water so im always a degree os two higher till it freezes over in january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think we've figured out the lack of sun angle issue pretty thoroughly. With temps of 30-34, accumulations will be elevation dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I could do the math, but for a quick response I'd say the sun angle on last years St Paddy snow would be about 20 degrees higher than it will be Wednesday. 49.9 degrees above the horizon in DC on March 17 at solar noon. 30.1 degrees above at solar noon on Wednesday. Right on with that 20 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I could do the math, but for a quick response I'd say the sun angle on last years St Paddy snow would be about 20 degrees higher than it will be Wednesday. yup...we have the same sun angle as January 16th...it could make a big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think we've figured out the lack of sun angle issue pretty thoroughly. With temps of 30-34, accumulations will be elevation dependent. That would be true if the range was 27-31 as well. It would be from "some to some more" as opposed to from "none to some" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That would be true if the range was 27-31 as well. It would be from "some to some more" as opposed to from "none to some" Not really.... when everyone is below freezing, then elevation matters much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not to get too weenie, but if people recall on 3/6/13 there was no high pressure, and there was a surface low to our west until the coastal took over...I think models *may* be underestimating the high pressure and/or the impact on surface temps...they all now have a broad 1024mb+ high directly to our north centered over PA in place when the storm starts....so it is a bit of a misconception that this storm has to create its own cold air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not really.... when everyone is below freezing, then elevation matters much less. Honestly, I'm a bit confused by the elevation argument with this particular storm. Obviously NW of the cities will be colder, but below freezing is below freezing. If it's snowing at BWI at 31F, and snowing in Westminster at 28F, they're both going to accumulate. Maybe with this storm BWI would be something like 33F, while Westminster is 31F. Westminster would obviously have an easier time with sticking, but BWI could still get accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Honestly, I'm a bit confused by the elevation argument with this particular storm. Obviously NW of the cities will be colder, but below freezing is below freezing. If it's snowing at BWI at 31F, and snowing in Westminster at 28F, they're both going to accumulate. Maybe with this storm BWI would be something like 33F, while Westminster is 31F. Westminster would obviously have an easier time with sticking, but BWI could still get accumulation. The ground temp still matters.... if it's 31°F in BWI then it's possible that not all surfaces are cold enough for snow to accumulate well, especially if the previous few days were very warm. But when it's 28°F, snow generally accumulates without any trouble. And in any case, temps will be falling so the higher elevations/colder burbs will reach freezing sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not to get too weenie, but if people recall on 3/6/13 there was no high pressure, and there was a surface low to our west until the coastal took over...I think models *may* be underestimating the high pressure and/or the impact on surface temps...they all now have a broad 1024mb+ high directly to our north centered over PA in place when the storm starts....so it is a bit of a misconception that this storm has to create its own cold air... The high could potentially trend stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I've been watching that too matt. Euro actually had a 1027 just n of ny in Canada IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The high could potentially trend stronger. I've been watching that too matt. Euro actually had a 1027 just n of ny in Canada IIRC FWIW, our pressure was 1010mb at the onset of the precip on 3/6/13.....18z GFS has us at 1026mb at onset....there is a vague CAD signature that sets up once the front passes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not to get too weenie, but if people recall on 3/6/13 there was no high pressure, and there was a surface low to our west until the coastal took over...I think models *may* be underestimating the high pressure and/or the impact on surface temps...they all now have a broad 1024mb+ high directly to our north centered over PA in place when the storm starts....so it is a bit of a misconception that this storm has to create its own cold air... That's interesting and I didn't even bother to look at placement of any High pressures to our north. We've seen countless borderline storms bust here due to the models being a degree or two too cold...though we had a 'hostile' sun angle to deal with in most of those storms, too. So I'm used to thinking along those lines and figuring we may end up a degree or two warmer than modeled... Keeping the QPF juiced will also be important for us so we get high rates. I'll be paying attention to the placement and strength of the high on future runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 21z SREF bumped west based on NCEP maps. 1" mean now includes DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That's interesting and I didn't even bother to look at placement of any High pressures to our north. We've seen countless borderline storms bust here due to the models being a degree or two too cold...though we had a 'hostile' sun angle to deal with in most of those storms, too. So I'm used to thinking along those lines and figuring we may end up a degree or two warmer than modeled... Keeping the QPF juiced will also be important for us so we get high rates. I'll be paying attention to the placement and strength of the high on future runs now. You always have to look for the placement and strength of the high. I think a lot of forecast busts are because the lack of a high or under estimating the strength of the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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