yoda

Wait, in the desert?

Good thing hockey season starts soon

Welp....guess the Commanders are done. Bad way to end the half and Daniels got injured

Got close... but the ASCAT denied the upgrade Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 The convective organization of the depression has increased somewhat since the last advisory, with multiple convective bands in the northern semicircle. This increase is reflected in the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates now suggesting the cyclone has reached tropical storm strength. However, an ASCAT-C overpass showed maximum winds near 30 kt. Based mainly on that the initial intensity will remain 30 kt. Cirrus cloud motion indicate that an upper-level cyclonic shear axis is located near or just south of the center, with very strong upper-level westerly flow over the southern part of the low-level circulation. The initial motion is 020/4 kt. The depression is in an area of weak steering currents between a low- to mid-level ridge to the east and a deep-layer mid-latitude trough to the northwest. During the next couple of days, the southern portion of this trough is expected to weaken, with a low- to mid-level ridge developing to the west and northwest of the tropical cyclone. This should result in the cyclone stopping its north-northeastward motion and turning toward the southwest. A general southwestward motion is then likely until the system dissipates. The track guidance has shifted a bit westward after 36 h, and the new forecast track is also nudged a bit west of the previous track. The dynamical models are forecasting a small upper-level low to develop along the cyclonic shear axis near or south of the tropical depression during the next 12 h or so. This is likely create a less hostile shear environment around the depression that should allow some intensification. After 24 h, the models are in good agreement that strong upper-level northerly or northwesterly winds will move over the cyclone, creating strong shear and causing weakening. While the models forecast the shear to diminish after 48-60 h, the cyclone or its remnants will be in an area of dry air and subsidence that cause cause the convection to dissipate. The new intensity forecast shows the depression becoming a tropical storm for a day or so, followed by weakening to a remnant low between 60-72 h. Based on the dynamical models, the remnant low is forecast to weaken to a trough between 96-120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 33.3N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 33.8N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 34.0N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 33.6N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 32.7N 32.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 30.4N 35.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0000Z 29.0N 39.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Not yet Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026 A new burst of convection has formed over the depression, that mostly covers the center of the system. However, the bulk of the convection is still on the northern side of the cyclone at this time, implying that some wind shear is still affecting it. The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which is the same as the previous cycle. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt for this advisory. Tropical Depression Six is still moving slowly, but has started to show a bit more motion towards the north-northeast. The cyclone should move more northeastward for roughly the next 36 h as a trough to the north weakens a low- to mid-level ridge to the northeast. Following this, at around 48 h, the ridge should build back towards the west, which in turn will force the cyclone to move southwestward for the rest of the forecast period. The current NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast track with small adjustments to the track and speed, and remains in good agreement with HCCA and GDMI. The cyclone should move into a slightly more favorable environment, between two areas of intense shear, and so there a good chance for intensification to occur for the next day or so. After 36 h, the system should move into an area of higher shear as the previously mentioned trough moves closer. This should lead to a gradual weakening of the system. The depression is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then dissipate around 120 h. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast of when the cyclone will become post-tropical and then dissipate, as both could possibly occur sooner than what is currently forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is still in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is closely align with HCCA and just under GDMI for peak intensity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 32.9N 33.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 33.3N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 33.8N 32.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 33.7N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 32.9N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 31.7N 33.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 30.5N 34.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z 28.6N 38.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg

Albernaz back for 2027 per Elias... Mancini to retire https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/49982125/orioles-activate-ex-closer-felix-bautista-trey-mancini-retires Mike Elias, Baltimore's president of baseball operations, said Saturday that Albernaz would return in 2027. The Orioles are 75-79 in Albernaz's first season and began the day three games out of an American League wild-card spot. "It's a great vote of confidence," Albernaz said. "Obviously, this season hasn't gone the way I wanted it by any stretch, by how the players wanted the season to go, how the front office, how the fanbase. ... That's something I wear pretty heavily because of the seat I'm in and I don't take that lightly." In addition, Trey Mancini signed a one-day contract to retire with the Orioles, the franchise he played for during the bulk of his eight-year career in the majors.

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026 A recent ASCAT pass showed that the system NHC has been monitoring southwest of the Azores (AL99) has a well-defined circulation and peak wind vectors were around 26 kt. The stucture of the cyclone still has the bulk of the convection on the northern side, and that area of convection has persisted for more than 12 hours. However, the cyclone appears to lie along the northern edge of a zone of strong westerly shear. In addition the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which has persisted since the last forecast cycle. Based on the given data, this system has been started as Tropical Depression Six with an initial intensity of 30 kt. Tropical Depression Six is currently meandering, however it should start to increase in speed and move generally to the northeast for the next 36 h as a trough to the north weakens the ridge to the northeast. Around 48 h, the ridge is expected to build back, which will force the cyclone to move towards the southwest. The system is expected to remain on this heading for the rest of the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI. The depression is expected to move into a slightly more favorable environment, between two areas of intense shear. This could allow for some slight intensification to occur for the next day or so. After 36 h, the system is expected to move into an area of higher shear as the previously mentioned trough starts to negatively impact the cyclone, thus resulting in gradual weakening. The system is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then dissipate around 120 h. However, the guidance from the GFS and ECMWF show significant differences in when dissipation occurs. The GFS has the cyclone dissipating much sooner around 72 h, while the ECMWF has dissipation occuring around 120 h. The current NHC intensity forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is slightly under HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 32.6N 33.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 33.0N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 33.6N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 33.8N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 33.4N 32.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 32.4N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 31.0N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 28.9N 37.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 33.6W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 33.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). This system is expected to generally move to the northeast for the next 24 to 36 hours, before turning toward the southwest in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, however after that gradual weakening is expected to occur. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg

It will be TD 6 at 11

Nothing at 5pm

I'm kind of fine with punting December. We haven't really had much cold and snow the past few years anyway in that month. Granted, I don't want 70s... but it seems as many knowledgeable posters have stated across the numerous threads... December is gone

I vaguely remember seeing that somewhere too

It has @EastCoast NPZ in the heavy rain totals... so we have to toss it

I understand that... what i meant is do I keep my spotter ID forever and not have to take another class or does NWS recycle them

Anybody know if you need a refresher? Like I still have my spotter ID and such... but last class I took was about 8 years ago I think?