Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Check out the forecast soundings at DTW on Monday in terms of wind potential. Wow. 90kt winds at 850mb near Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 What a bomb! Showing western subforum snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Ends up producing fairly impressive defo snows across most WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 How is the parallel GFS looking? Tropicaltidbits is down for the night because of ddos attacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 How is the parallel GFS looking? Tropicaltidbits is down for the night because of ddos attacks. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 That's a ship sinker right there, big time November gale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Looks the the parallel GFS is fairly snowy on the backside around here on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Parallel GFS has the low diving to 971mb. Lot of wrap around snow. Snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Looks the the parallel GFS is fairly snowy on the backside around here on Monday. Hopefully surface temps can cool a bit quicker than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 GEM looks big time too.. 988mb just east of PAH 982mb just NE of LAF it looks like 975mb over Traverse City on its way to 969mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Peoria is reporting 34 degrees and freezing rain. Wondering if this will kinda be a hit and miss thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 GEM looks big time too.. 988mb just east of PAH 982mb just NE of LAF it looks like 975mb over Traverse City on its way to 969mb Positive runs from the non-NAM guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Earlier, I mentioned Detroit in regards to wind potential. Here's the 00z GFS forecast sounding valid 18z Monday. You have essentially dry adiabatic lapse rates tapping into 65 kts aloft with 60 kts as close as 900 mb. We'll see if future runs hold but there would be a window of major gust potential if this is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 seems silly to discredit all of tonight's runs as the WPC has done when there is likely some better sampling for tonight's suite....clearly the models are sniffing something out...we shall see what they say if the euro tags along MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1138 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014VALID NOV 22/0000 UTC THRU NOV 25/1200 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST......AN EVALUATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS ALONG WITH PRELIMINARYPREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00ZNAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT ITS THEIR FORECASTS....INITIAL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MX......EVENTUAL NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROF LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES......RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES......POSITION OF MEAN TROF/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANFORECAST CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 GGEM cranking out more backside snow this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 EURO goes down to 976mb, but not until it hits Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 It's a step in the right direction in the snow department though from nw IL/sw WI up through Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 EURO goes down to 976mb, but not until it hits Quebec. Stronger than the 12z at those time stamps, I would argue every model went stronger with the low pressure tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Wow, GFS/GGEM showing some Gordan Lightfoot love. My point already has gusts to 40 for Monday and I'm not even in the area for the highest gusts. If that sounding Hoosier posted ends up being right, hide your kids, hide your wife, or they'll get blown away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 nICE morning out here, a good solid 0.1" ICE on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Had a light glaze on some surfaces (Some roads, soil, grass, etc) this morning. Up to 36 now, with the only remaining ice glaze being on bare soil, which goes to show how cold ground temps are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 This morning, the 0.05" of freezing rain that fell on frozen ground created sidewalks that were literally unwalkable. I dont know how anyone stepped out their door lol. A plane slid off the runway at DTW airport due to the ice, and as of 945 am no flights in or out of Detroit until further notice (which probably wont be long as the temp rises). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 didin't notice any ice here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 This morning, the 0.05" of freezing rain that fell on frozen ground created sidewalks that were literally unwalkable. I dont know how anyone stepped out their door lol. A plane slid off the runway at DTW airport due to the ice, and as of 945 am no flights in or out of Detroit until further notice (which probably wont be long as the temp rises). My kids are having fun with it sliding around. Plus the snow has become good packing so they are making big snowmen!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Quite a slick drive this morning. Glaze on all the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 I was thinking if the track shifts west of where models had it last night, you'd probably bring the stronger core of winds aloft farther west over Lake Michigan on Monday. It's going to be windy anyway but it would make things even more intense along the eastern shore, where they will feel the full effect of the W/SW flow coming off the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The 12z rgem phases early and revs the low up big time, 976 mb in nw Illinois... heavy def zone across eastern Iowa. That would be great, but seems awfully ambitious. The 12z GFS may be stronger than the NAM, but I doubt it's in the same ballpark as the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 RGEM gust maps have 50-60 mph gusts in some areas at 12z Monday, and that's before the best diurnal mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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