TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Encouraging Euro run for northern IL in regards to snow. Power outages might become a pretty significant issue Monday as the rain quickly changes over to wet snow and sticks to everything. The strong winds and caking snow to power lines/trees should keep the power crews busy. The Dec '12 event resulted in significant power outages from a similar situation. YIkes! Grand Rapids NWS makes it sound like it will take quite a while for the rain to change over to snow completely. One would think if there were some strong dynamics in place it would change over rather quickly like you're advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 looks like rains will fall well under 1" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 3z SREF plumes mean total snowfall for DVN is around 5.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 YIkes! Grand Rapids NWS makes it sound like it will take quite a while for the rain to change over to snow completely. One would think if there were some strong dynamics in place it would change over rather quickly like you're advertising. Yeah it's looking like it could go from moderate/heavy rainfall right over to wet snow quite quickly out this way. You wouldn't think with the winds so strong that the snow would stick to much, but in a quick changeover situation we've seen it plaster to everything immediately, and then freeze. Back in Dec '12 the snow plastered everything, even with 50-60mph winds lol. Making sure everything is charged up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 3z SREF plumes mean total snowfall for DVN is around 5.1". 3z sref plumes dvn.png Some pretty solid numbers there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nobody knows the what model to use. Pretty much will the afd's around me took a wait see approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 3z SREF plumes mean total snowfall for DVN is around 5.1". 3z sref plumes dvn.png FrankTheTank's Jacque is similar at about 5.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah it's looking like it could go from moderate/heavy rainfall right over to wet snow quite quickly out this way. You wouldn't think with the winds so strong that the snow would stick to much, but in a quick changeover situation we've seen it plaster to everything immediately, and then freeze. Back in Dec '12 the snow plastered everything, even with 50-60mph winds lol. Making sure everything is charged up today. I love the plastered look! It's like a work of art. What are the specific dates for the Dec '12 event? Was that right around Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Already 51° here in St. Paul. Soupy mess out there with the melting snowpack. Visibility less than a few hundred feet. Won't see much snow on the backside here, although plumes show some decent totals. You boys down south enjoy whatever happens today. Should be interesting to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 In least shocking news, the 12z NAM has changed its mind...through 35 hours, now going with a nice thump of snow for the QC, parts of northern IL and southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 In least shocking news, the 12z NAM has changed its mind...through 35 hours, now going with a nice thump of snow for the QC, parts of northern IL and southern WI. Does it continue into Michigan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Does it continue into Michigan? thru 45hrs http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014112312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=045 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Does it continue into Michigan? Yep. Totals through 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Thanks. I didn't realize the maps were coming out this early. I guess with the time change, that makes sense. It looks like the band is more SW to NE than I thought it would be. It gives my area some lake enhancement along with the snow. South-central WI definitely gets a nice hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 with the track of the low, this placement doesn't make sense to me. Will the NAM ever kick its drug habit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 not too shabby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 with the track of the low, this placement doesn't make sense to me. Will the NAM ever kick its drug habit? It's a bad model. But there are multiple moving parts to this system. Alas, the NAM has now joined the Euro and GFS with this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Being that the storm is going to last longer than just to the 24th, and there will be a whole different part to this storm, I figured this might be a good place to talk about the deformation band specifically, and "current" conditions that occur with it. Right now, Southern WI, northern IL, and Northern/Western Lower Michigan are looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I wouldn't take it literally...but here's the 12z 4km NAM total snowfall through 51 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I love the plastered look! It's like a work of art. What are the specific dates for the Dec '12 event? Was that right around Christmas? It was 12/20/12 http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=50&interval=5&year=2012&month=12&day=20&hour=8&minute=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 .3" IMBY final call 2-3" for RFD to waukesha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 with the track of the low, this placement doesn't make sense to me. Will the NAM ever kick its drug habit? Haha. I don't think so. I have told myself before winter started to totally disregard the NAM unless within 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Going with the low numbers for yourself? I guess you can never be disappointed, unless you get .29999999 of an inch of snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Going with the low numbers for yourself? I guess you can never be disappointed, unless you get .29999999 of an inch of snow. lol Truthfully, some of it is Alek being Alek. That said, I don't blame him for going with low totals, a changeover situation can be very murky in terms of accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Haha. I don't think so. I have told myself before winter started to totally disregard the NAM unless within 24 hours. There are times the NAM can see the trends but boy can it really suck with details. How is you snowpack doing? My 7" depth yesterday morn is just down to a couple piles & half melted snowmen today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z RGEM finally caved towards the Euro with a much weaker 981mb low just south of Mackinaw City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It was 12/20/12 http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=50&interval=5&year=2012&month=12&day=20&hour=8&minute=0 Haha, checking out that radar is exactly what I was going to do. Ew, that storm was such a letdown around here. We were supposed to get several inches from different parts of it, and didn't really get anything but lots of rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It was 12/20/12 http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=50&interval=5&year=2012&month=12&day=20&hour=8&minute=0 Was this the event that was blizzard warned that busted hard in LOT cwa? All theae rain to snow events run together in my mind: Regardless, these never seem to go as modeled, so I am figuring I will likely see mood flakes with maybe a quick hitting inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Was this the event that was blizzard warned that busted hard in LOT cwa? All theae rain to snow events run together in my mind: Regardless, these never seem to go as modeled, so I am figuring I will likely see mood flakes with maybe a quick hitting inch. Yes. It ended up being lots of heavy rain for areas that were supposed to get great snows. That was the "Madison Winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Haha. I don't think so. I have told myself before winter started to totally disregard the NAM unless within 24 hours. OT a bit but goodness sakes your current total before Thanksgiving would be a top 10 winter ever in Milwaukee. Could you spare all of us in non-lake belt areas an inch lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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