Hoosier Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 Bone dry air at the surface especially in N IL/S WI. Will take some time to moisten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 18z GFS keeps the low bombing out to 971mb over lake superior, 970mb just into Canada, would be fun to see a sub 970 low this time of year. I'm kind of surprised in the difference in the models at < 72hrs out, GGEM and EURO show a much weaker low around 985 vs the GFS. 18z parallel GFS also deepens it very quickly...might even go sub 970 mb on there based on the rather large 972 mb isobar but hard to tell on the crappy NCEP graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 34 bank clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 18z GFS parallel 850mb graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 18z parallel GFS also deepens it very quickly...might even go sub 970 mb on there based on the rather large 972 mb isobar but hard to tell on the crappy NCEP graphics. 968 on WxBell 34 bank clock Torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 I'm not 100% positive on this but I believe the November 1998 storm may be the only sub 970 mb storm on record in the Midwest in the month of November. There have been very few sub 970 mb storms in this part of the country at any time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Pretty impressive 22mb pressure differential over the LP of MI on that run. I would think the NWS would have to go with high wind warnings if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Radar returns look showery so far. Some of the short term/hi-res guidance is a little more bullish on freezing rain prospects here and I wouldn't be surprised if IND issues an advisory later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Radar returns look showery so far. Some of the short term/hi-res guidance is a little more bullish on freezing rain prospects here and I wouldn't be surprised if IND issues an advisory later. It would surprise me. They issued an update to the afternoon discussion with concerns about moistening up enough for precip before temps get above freezing, basically shortening the the timeframe for zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 It would surprise me. They issued an update to the afternoon discussion with concerns about moistening up enough for precip before temps get above freezing, basically shortening the the timeframe for zr. The thing I'm thinking though is that there will be some lag between 2m temps going above freezing and surfaces going above freezing, though maybe not as extreme as some of those occurrences last winter. If we struggle to get precip then that would negate that lol. We'll see I guess. 27/12 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The thing I'm thinking though is that there will be some lag between 2m temps going above freezing and surfaces going above freezing, though maybe not as extreme as some of those occurrences last winter. If we struggle to get precip then that would negate that lol. We'll see I guess. 27/12 now Quite a bit warmer out that way. 19/12 at FWA. I think that they'll end up covering it with an SPS. EDIT: Good point about 2m/surface temps. With a week of cold weather under our belts and not a fast 2m temperature rise, it might take awhile for the surface to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Is the NAM ever going to come in line with the globals on this. Geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Is the NAM ever going to come in line with the globals on this. Geez. 6 hours before it happens, maybe... Such a useless model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 6 hours before it happens, maybe... Such a useless model. Ends up with a sub 980 mb surface low, but it's how it gets there of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Looks like the freezing rain threat in this area will be pretty minimal. Temps have bumped back up to 34. Dews are dry and the ground is frozen so even with temps starting above freezing we could still get a brief bout of glazing. Precip looks very sparse on radar at the moment though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 30°/8° here, so plenty of potential for ZR here. MKX calling for up to 0.15" of icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Bombs away on the 00z RGEM...already down to 987 mb on the MO/KY border at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Bombs away on the 00z RGEM...already down to 987 mb on the MO/KY border at 48 hours. Over/under on a RGEM run showing <968mb at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Bombs away on the 00z RGEM...already down to 987 mb on the MO/KY border at 48 hours. The RGEM is the official bomb sniffing model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Bombs away on the 00z RGEM...already down to 987 mb on the MO/KY border at 48 hours. Usually a good sfc low location for good snows here but not this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 The RGEM is the official bomb sniffing model. I know one thing, I'd put more stock in it at 48 hours than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Over/under on a RGEM run showing <968mb at some point. I'd say probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 That RGEM run is borderline vile. You're probably talking about something like 974 mb near southern Lake Michigan about 9-12 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Just rocking the RGEM precip map back and forth in the 36-48hr range is pretty sweet. Nice swirling mass of heavy precip north and west of the deepening low. Man if that was snow we'd be in a near perfect location here lol. Ahhhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The 0z 4km NAM shows some snow love for a good portion of the DVN CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 0z GFS coming in stronger at the sfc through 45hrs and also a sharper, well defined trof over the nrn/central plains. 80kt winds at 850mb across KY up to the IN/OH border at 45/48hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 00z op GFS goes well below 970 mb (into the mid 960s so far...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 00z op GFS goes well below 970 mb (into the mid 960s so far...). Lowest is 966mb just NE of Sault Ste. Marie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Lowest is 966mb just NE of Sault Ste. Marie. Check out the forecast soundings at DTW on Monday in terms of wind potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 00z op GFS goes well below 970 mb (into the mid 960s so far...). Look at the changes of the height field at 500mb at 54hrs. Not far off from a sneaky snow event the way the wave dives SE over the midwest from the nrn plains with strong height falls. Sfc low starts bombing passing over Chicago. 6mb drop in 3hrs as it heads over Lake Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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