Hoosier Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 00z NAM has less wave interaction and as a result, looks way different than the solutions that have a deepening, northeastward moving surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 ^from LOT's AFD - This will be interesting to see how this plays out. After a week of subfreezing temps, it could take some time to warm up different types of surfaces. I remember a sneaky event last year where the ground level was frozen, and the rain did not freeze on trees but flash froze on contact with the roads and ground. I could certainly see this type of scenario playing out for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 00z NAM has less wave interaction and as a result, looks way different than the solutions that have a deepening, northeastward moving surface low. It's the NAM past 48 hours. We safely toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 It's the NAM past 48 hours. We safely toss it. Probably, though I'm almost hoping for something else to come with a similar solution just to stir the pot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Take this very much FWIW, but here's the 0z 4km NAM p-type accumulation maps for NE IL and southern lower MI. Nothing too serious, but maybe a little icing...if it has a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShtRemusSays Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Here is the hourly freezing rain accumulation for KORD. The model avg is just under .06in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 00z GFS also has more ice in some areas. About .2" as ice verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I remember a sneaky event last year where the ground level was frozen, and the rain did not freeze on trees but flash froze on contact with the roads and ground. I could certainly see this type of scenario playing out for a bit. January 10th last winter that was. That was horrible icing on the roads. It was unexpected too, because the air temperature was above freezing. Saw quite a few accidents on the way home from work that night because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 0z GFS with what looks like a more formative trailing/secondary sfc low along the cold front at 84hr moving through IN but the cold air looks to be too slow advecting in to do anything interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 00z model runs have me more concerned for measurable freezing rain. Both the GFS and NAM show a period of pretty deep saturation between 06z and 12z. Definitely a change of pace from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 That secondary low on the GFS. Close, but probably a mix at best in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 Don't look now but the 00z GGEM is a significant snow maker. Geos or someone else can post a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Some sort of upper level low feature or trough axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 Comparing this GGEM run to the 12z run, there's some notable changes aloft but it really leads to a huge change in the outcome. It'll be interesting to see if anything backs it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 FWIW, there were a few 18z GEFS members that were hinting at something like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Northern half of IL and the eastern half of iowa with a freezing rain advisory....southern tier of counties in wisco as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 you don't get to say this about november front end icing events but the prolonged cold and surface temps should increase the risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 12Z NAM spitting out a decent icing for Michigan as well the already advised regions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 since it is relative to this particular storm I will post the soil temps here.... 4 inch (what doesn't have a direct impact on icing...but indirectly could make surface soil temp warming a tad slower) 7 am 21NOV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 12z NAM definitely showing the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Nice to see the 12z GFS bomb the low out to 971mb as it crosses lake superior after having quite a few weaker runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 Offices have been hinting at potential convective nature of zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Thankfully this isn't coming at a rush hour or it could of been a pretty hairy situation.. 12z NAM for DPA overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 Looking at forecast soundings, there's a deep layer of moderately steep lapse rates and models are generating a small amount of elevated CAPE ORD: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Thankfully this isn't coming at a rush hour or it could of been a pretty hairy situation.. 12z NAM for DPA overnight freezing rain.png yeah, it's gonna go down when every one is sleeping and be largely cleared up by mid morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 12z GGEM backed off from its 00z solution but does have a stripe of snow 12z GFS: I'd still keep an eye on this aspect, especially farther north, as it seems like some changes in phasing details could alter things substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Re. soil temps: 2" down to 15 and 4" down to 26 here at the office this AM. Even the 8" temp was 28 degrees. Yesterday's measured frost depth was 7", higher than at any point in the warm winter of 2011-12. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 November barometric pressure records across the area. Some of these most likely won't be in play but wanted to create a list that included many places to account for changes in track/strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Re. soil temps: 2" down to 15 and 4" down to 26 here at the office this AM. Even the 8" temp was 28 degrees. Yesterday's measured frost depth was 7", higher than at any point in the warm winter of 2011-12. Sent from my SM-G900V Those years are not to be spoken of in my house. Other than my son being born in one of those years. Gaylord Michigan had grass visible in mid January at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 18z GFS keeps the low bombing out to 971mb over lake superior, 970mb just into Canada, would be fun to see a sub 970 low this time of year. I'm kind of surprised in the difference in the models at < 72hrs out, GGEM and EURO show a much weaker low around 985 vs the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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