cyclone77 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 The 12z run on October 25 did. Here's that old thread for anyone who wants to reminisce http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/239844-the-great-midwest-low-of-2010/ Just read through most of that. Very interesting/fun read. BTW, whatever happened to Turtle? Posted a lot in that thread, and I don't think I've seen him on here in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 The 12z run on October 25 did. Here's that old thread for anyone who wants to reminisce http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/239844-the-great-midwest-low-of-2010/ Ytterbium with a dynamite second post in that thread. "Hopefully it's not as dry so they won't need red flag warnings." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 980mb low on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 980mb low on the 0z GFS. looks like some decent (but light) wrap around snows too over the next few frames also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Peaks at 974mb near Escanaba, MI. Waiting to see what the wrap around does. Not a whole lot of wrap around in this area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 GGEM taking the low farther east. Cuts from near Terre Haute to this position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 00z GFS has 850 mb winds of 75 kts here at 18z Sunday, but an inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 00z Euro fairly similar to previous runs. Deepens low to upper 970s by the time it reaches the WI/IL border, and then settles to around 974 as it moves into the UP. Large area of snow showers wrapping around the back side of it by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 00z Euro fairly similar to previous runs. Deepens low to upper 970s by the time it reaches the WI/IL border, and then settles to around 974 as it moves into the UP. Large area of snow showers wrapping around the back side of it by Monday. Pretty large area of 50 kt 850 mb winds still at 120 hours. We'll have to see about mixing but taking a peek at GFS forecast soundings, it's suggesting decent mixing potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 CIPS analogs valid at 96 hours. Don't really recognize these dates other than #3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 ...and corresponding severe weather reports. Most of the reports north of the Ohio River came in the 11/10/1998 event, and it doesn't look like the thermodynamics will be as favorable this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Light freezing rain looks possible in OH/IN on Saturday. Neither the NAM nor the GFS predict very much precipitation. NAM soundings for Fort Wayne show 30F surface, and saturated, above freezing at 850mb early Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Light freezing rain looks possible in OH/IN on Saturday. Neither the NAM nor the GFS predict very much precipitation. NAM soundings for Fort Wayne show 30F surface, and saturated, above freezing at 850mb early Saturday. Yeah, I was worrying about sl**t here, but it's looking more and more like a freezing rain to rain event. Fortunately, it should be a light icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 There's been hints on some models of a wave swinging through the Ohio Valley as cold air tries to catch up with the precip. The GGEM is perhaps the most striking example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShtRemusSays Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 "FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPS OF +3 TO +7 DEGREES DEVELOP ABOVE A 1000-1500 FOOT LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE...MAKING FREEZING RAIN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT SLEET THE LIKELY INITIAL PRECIP TYPE." ^^ From LOT for Friday night. I don't think it will be much. Shouldn't be a big problem as it's going to start later at night and stop by early morning in the southern portions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 12z Euro 982mb over Alek's Gold Coast condo at 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 ^^ From LOT for Friday night. I don't think it will be much. Shouldn't be a big problem as it's going to start later at night and stop by early morning in the southern portions. I agree...southerly low level flow is usually hostile for prolonged freezing rain but even minor amounts seem to cause an inordinate amount of problems on the roads. There's been some model differences in just how quickly the surface warms but given the lack of replenishing cold/dry air feed in the low levels, I wouldn't be surprised if it's on the quicker side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 12z Euro 982mb over Alek's Gold Coast condo at 90 hours. Seems like we've seen a slight weaker/east move on the 12z cycle. Blip or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 There's been hints on some models of a wave swinging through the Ohio Valley as cold air tries to catch up with the precip. The GGEM is perhaps the most striking example. 12z Euro has something similar to this, but verbatim...cold air lags just a bit too far behind the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Seems like we've seen a slight weaker/east move on the 12z cycle. Blip or not? Hard to know I guess. Seems we've seen this movie before at this range, and in the end...the east/weaker move was incorrect. But every storm is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShtRemusSays Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I agree...southerly low level flow is usually hostile for prolonged freezing rain but even minor amounts seem to cause an inordinate amount of problems on the roads. There's been some model differences in just how quickly the surface warms but given the lack of replenishing cold/dry air feed in the low levels, I wouldn't be surprised if it's on the quicker side. Im with you. I see the surface temps warming quickly. 12Z NAM is the only one that is little slower to bring the temps back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 How much snow cover is left down state from Sunday's wave? It might be worth looking at how the various models are resolving that snow cover to then guess how they're handling 2 m temps for Friday night. That said, I'm on board with everyone else for very light IP/ZR that's mostly a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 SWS for light ice accums across LOT for Friday night.... also mention in the AFD 1 to 2 of rain inches possible across a good chunk of LOT sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Looks like the lead energy is coming onshore in Cali this evening...should have solid sampling of that for tonight's 00Z model suite.... The northern stream vort comes on shore 12Z 22NOV... I am not expecting much to change...just we should be ironing out some of the wobbles and strength differences moving forward I would imagine....especially Saturday morning ... fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 Looks like the lead energy is coming onshore in Cali this evening...should have solid sampling of that for tonight's 00Z model suite.... The northern stream vort comes on shore 12Z 22NOV... I am not expecting much to change...just we should be ironing out some of the wobbles and strength differences moving forward I would imagine....especially Saturday morning ... fwiw 12z might be better for the Cali wave as it may not be totally onshore at 00z. Certainly will have at least partial sampling though. After that it does the ol plunge into Mexico, which seemingly creates some wonky output on occasion...hopefully not this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 12z might be better for the Cali wave as it may not be totally onshore at 00z. Certainly will have at least partial sampling though. After that it does the ol plunge into Mexico, which seemingly creates some wonky output on occasion...hopefully not this time. haha...so as the lead vort drifts down into mexico the northern stream vort comes on shore in the NW....oh well...again, should only lead to minor differences which shouldn't play a huge role in this particular setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShtRemusSays Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Here's the latest special weather statement North and East Central IL 334 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014 /434 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAYMORNING...AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BEPOSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANAFRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT DO OCCUR ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT ONLY VERY SMALL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES CANCREATE SLIPPERY AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.WITH THE VERY COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA FOR OVER A WEEK...GROUNDTEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING. AIR TEMPERATURES WILLSLOWLY RISE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAYMORNING. BUT UNTIL BOTH AIR AND GROUND TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVEFREEZING...ICY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.ANYONE TRAVELING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BEPREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 18z GFS maps of low pressure strengthening. Bottoms out at 976mb on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 00z NAM looks like it's throwing a little more precip farther north into the sub freezing sfc air tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShtRemusSays Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 MAIN QUESTION WILL THEN BE HOW LONG DOES IT PERSIST. GROUND SURFACES HAVE BEEN SUB FREEZING FOR OVER A WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS MAYBE REACHING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FRIDAY. THUS IT WILL TAKE SOME AMOUNT OF TIME FOR AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TO WARM THESE COLDER SURFACES AND END FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. ^from LOT's AFD - This will be interesting to see how this plays out. After a week of subfreezing temps, it could take some time to warm up different types of surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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