cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Was telling Joe the setup reminds me of 3/2/12, just without the big severe weather. Got into the dry slot and then heights tank and heavy snows developed and moved ENE across the area https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=10&year=2012&month=3&day=2&hour=8&minute=55 Yeah that was a fun one. We need this to slow up a little bit, or bomb a little sooner to maximize our time with the main deform band before it lifts more north. As it stands now it looks like at the least a quick shot of heavy snow and strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Was telling Joe the setup reminds me of 3/2/12, just without the big severe weather. Man I just can't buy a setup these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Man I just can't buy a setup these days. Severe weather can wait till April in my book. It's time for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Easy to say following last winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z 4km NAM siding with the RGEM more or less. 18z current GFS. Cold air gets wrapped around quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Was telling Joe the setup reminds me of 3/2/12, just without the big severe weather. Got into the dry slot and then heights tank and heavy snows developed and moved ENE across the area https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=10&year=2012&month=3&day=2&hour=8&minute=55 That's a good comparison. RFD had 3" of snow in a few hours. The track is fairly similar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z Euro not as impressed. Kinda hard to see, but only 981mb on this map. 11:22 euro.png So basically we have the GFS on the stronger side and the ECMWF on the weaker side with most everything else somewhere in between. This will have some implications especially regarding wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z Parallel GFS. Pretty similar to the current GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 21z plumers held serve ish for ord....not sure how much would actually accum of their projections. A couple high ones and a few at zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 One thing that needs to be ironed out is the placement of this feature. It's not a big difference in location from the 18z run to 00z run but it will have an effect on how quickly this thing deepens. Some models phase that with the other energy while the NAM really doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 0z NAM tracks the low right up WI past Oshkosh and up Green Bay on this run. 987mb near Freeport at midnight tomorrow. 982mb near Sturgeon Bay, 6am Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This is as low as she goes on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The low on the NAM does a really weird jog back south then back north! lol and then to the map above, which Chicago WX posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 One thing that needs to be ironed out is the placement of this feature. It's not a big difference in location from the 18z run to 00z run but it will have an effect on how quickly this thing deepens. Some models phase that with the other energy while the NAM really doesn't. nam_namer_027_500_vort_ht.png nam_namer_033_500_vort_ht.png I've been watching that as well. The NAM keeps it separate and tracks it to NYC. The GFS turns it hard left up into the lakes and at least partially phases it with the northern energy. The Euro also turns it up into the lakes, but still doesn't wrap the storm up as much as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 lol yeah, I saw that Geos. NAM is whacky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 I've been watching that as well. The NAM keeps it separate and tracks it to NYC. The GFS turns it hard left up into the lakes and at least partially phases it with the northern energy. Unless something else supports it on these model runs, I'd be skeptical of the NAM solution just based on that. Just taking a quick look, it appears that every other major model on the 12z cycle didn't do what the NAM is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Unless something else supports it on these model runs, I'd be skeptical of the NAM solution just based on that. Just taking a quick look, it appears that every other major model on the 12z cycle didn't do what the NAM is doing. On the other hand, some eyebrows have to be raised as well when the NAM is on the weaker side of the solutions (given its normal tendency to go buck wild with the intensity of these storms). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 RGEM 975 mb over Milwaukee at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hoosier's weenie model is at 975mb just north of MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Models agree on 100-130kph gust potential for the GTA as the sting jet swings through. Definitely some power outage/wind damage potential, especially after the +RN/snowmelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hoosier's weenie model is at 975mb just north of MKE. rgem 36.gif lol. 973 mb at 48 hours. Will have to wait to see the lowest pressure in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 lol. 973 mb at 48 hours. Will have to wait to see the lowest pressure in between. Don't stop believin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 0z RGEM gets down to 972mb on this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 No shortage of moisture on the 4km NAM. More of a spread the wealth type snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah the 4km NAM looks pretty convective with the changeover to snow starting in northeast MO as mid level heights tank and that snow streaking northward. Larger 2-4" area it it has snow hanging around here till late Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hopefully offices start hitting the wind potential hard if it looks like these deeper solutions are going to verify. Between favorable diurnal timing and a strong CAA regime, it could get kinda wild. At least the trees are largely void of leaves and whatever's left won't put up much resistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 0z RGEM total run snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 0z RGEM 10m wind gusts. Showing some 60+ mph potential for parts of OH, MI, and ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hopefully offices start hitting the wind potential hard if it looks like these deeper solutions are going to verify. Between favorable diurnal timing and a strong CAA regime, it could get kinda wild. At least the trees are largely void of leaves and whatever's left won't put up much resistance. x2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 0z GFS steps off the gas a bit, doesn't go sub-970 on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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