Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 The 12z rgem phases early and revs the low up big time, 976 mb in nw Illinois... heavy def zone across eastern Iowa. That would be great, but seems awfully ambitious. The 12z GFS may be stronger than the NAM, but I doubt it's in the same ballpark as the rgem. It's close pressure wise, though seems a little faster. The 42 hour strength on the 12z GFS is 975 mb and the 48 hour strength on the RGEM is 973 mb, though they are in a similar location because of the timing differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z GFS bombs the low to 966mb as it crosses sault sainte marie into canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 BUF would have 75-80 mph gust potential if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 This BUF sounding is just phenomenal. Also have strong CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z GFS bombs the low to 966mb as it crosses sault sainte marie into canada I'm getting ready for a heavy snow just in case... picking up a generator tomorrow because power loss here seems pretty common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Wow at the gfs. Probably close to blizzard criteria here if it would verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z pGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Kind of weird that there is such a strong L, in such a cold November, that will be producing relatively little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z pGFS clown map. Use with caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z RGEM at 48 hours. That is a massive area with pressures under 980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Might as well start preparing for the potential of power outages here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 didin't notice any ice here It's not something to be expected in an UHI during November (accumulating ice)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Earlier, I mentioned Detroit in regards to wind potential. Here's the 00z GFS forecast sounding valid 18z Monday. You have essentially dry adiabatic lapse rates tapping into 65 kts aloft with 60 kts as close as 900 mb. We'll see if future runs hold but there would be a window of major gust potential if this is right. 00_GFS_066_42_23,-83_33_skewt_ML.gif And the fact that the city will be directly downwind of the SE flow off Lake Erie/Lake St. Clair (early on) will only enhance the wind potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z 4km NAM snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I guess a Delta Airlines flight slid off the runway at DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I guess a Delta Airlines flight slid off the runway at DTW After that, flights in/out of Metro Airport were also indefinitely delayed until the ice melted this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Impressive wind potential... Gusts over 80mph on some models. While unlikely, usually means we'll still have 60mph gusts. Looks like I better fill up the gas tanks and generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z Euro not as impressed. Kinda hard to see, but only 981mb on this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Did have some ice this morning, but past 9am or so - wasn't visible anymore. Picked up 0.05" of moisture thus far. Noticing fog is trying to form up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Much warmer here in southeast illinois currently than forecast. So far 61, makes me wonder about enhanced t storm chances in the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Didn't expect the plumes to be this high and with some juiced members. Mean for DKB at 4" and 3" for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 GGEM snowfall and winds. Winds of lower Lake Michigan, Lake Erie and Lake Huron will really be howling Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 18z NAM: 986mb DKB at midnight Monday. 983mb SBM, 3am. 981mb east of Door County, 6am. 977mb near ANJ. Peak strength as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 55 here now in Indy...warmer than expected initially. Wonder if chances for convection will increase Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 18z 4km NAM gets the low down to about 969mb at 18z Mon near Grand Marais. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 18z 4km NAM gets the low down to about 969mb at 18z Mon near Grand Marais. also lays about a foot of snow down here by the end of the run with snow still falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 also lays about a foot of snow down here by the end of the run with snow still falling Very cool looking forecast simulated satellite imagery from the 4km NAM. Looks like a classic bombing storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Very cool looking forecast simulated satellite imagery from the 4km NAM. Looks like a classic bombing storm system. I like where you're sitting for a period of some good rippage and the cold air advects in Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I like where you're sitting for a period of some good rippage and the cold air advects in Monday morning. Yeah it looks like much of northern IL could be in line for some brief rippage followed by a lot of snow shower activity. This following 1"+ of rain makes it all the more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yeah it looks like much of northern IL could be in line for some brief rippage followed by a lot of snow shower activity. This following 1"+ of rain makes it all the more interesting. Was telling Joe the setup reminds me of 3/2/12, just without the big severe weather. Got into the dry slot and then heights tank and heavy snows developed and moved ENE across the area https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=10&year=2012&month=3&day=2&hour=8&minute=55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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