Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 hourly loop of the RAP...be careful when trying to figure out where the surface low is later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 hourly loop of the RAP...be careful when trying to figure out where the surface low is later Lol....whack a mole LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 20z HRRR with a pretty imperssive area of precip early tomorrow morning with the cold air catching it and heavy snow breaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Lol....whack a mole LP This is minor but looks like the lowest pressure is about 2 mb lower than the RAP as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 LOT map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif Pretty sweet run for my backyard lol. I usually use the NMM for thermal profiles in dynamic cooling type events like this, it seems to do very well, but with all the model disagreement I'm not really paying attention until we get even closer to the snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Lol....whack a mole LP Perfect analogy! 2-4" in November is great in my book. It would ensure a white Thanksgiving this year. 974-975 mb on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 WPC's version .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 21z HRRR at 12z tomorrow. Shows precip already leaving eastern Iowa and quickly exiting the QCA. Verbatim this would yield little to no snow for these areas. Hope this is just a bad run, but the trend is quickly going to hell. Luckily it's only November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nothing crazy or out of hand by any means.....but the normal ponding spots on the grass are a little higher/larger than normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 LOT map good map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif Would be a few hour period of good rippage across most of the LOT CWA if that verifies Seems much slower as well compared to the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Wasn't expecting a model 'battle' (if that's a suitable replacement for 'dumpster fire inconsistency') this early in the season, especially with the 1" and under rounds that've been handed out so far. Worried this'll be a nuisance shoveling event for the north LOT CWA, where it's not a meaningful storm, but it lays down just enough snow that you have to get out there and shovel. Maybe some nice totals near the WI/IL border, but everyone else probably in for 1-3", the going standard this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Would be a few hour period of good rippage across most of the LOT CWA if that verifies Seems much slower as well compared to the HRRR It is slower...it's also a bit slower with the cold air though. The HRRR is basically using the 850 mb 0C isotherm as the changeover line. A couple hours difference either way could be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Anybody have the 18z RGEM snow maps? I don't have access to that just wondering (and bored before the 0z runs come out), I'm interested in it's snowy trowal feature it was showing on the 12z run just a few miles north of my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Anybody have the 18z RGEM snow maps? I don't have access to that just wondering (and bored before the 0z runs come out), I'm interested in it's snowy trowal feature it was showing on the 12z run just a few miles north of my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SN_000-048_0000.gif I guess I need to look closer at the meteocentre.com site to find the snow maps lol, I love their long range maps that compare the gfs/ggem/euro/ukie up to 240hrs. I watch them all the time actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 At 00z, it looks like lowest pressures are in the central MO area. Seeing a few 990-991 mb readings there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SN_000-048_0000.gif Lock that puppy in, though I know some of that will be lost when it comes to accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If you don't feel like converting from mm to inches here is this map. About 3" here, I'll take that. Milwaukee office would need to add on advisories if this was the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 lol, Geos. I sat here trying to figure it out, and concluded I would get about 7 inches according to the RGEM. Then I scrolled down and saw your map. I would be right in the jackpot for Michigan! 7 to 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Pretty good rain coming down right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Crazy 10m wind gust output from the 18Z RGEM for Southern Ontario tomorrow in the order of 110-120km/h. Going to be damage and power outages if these wind even come close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 High wind watch for SEMI Now this is more like November in southern Michigan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM semi flipped back with more cold sector QPF and lines up decently with current headlines out Actually really nice hit for parts of WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 0Z NAM snow map, nails Wisconsin, not that you can believe the NAM farther than you can throw it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'll believe it when I see it nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sharp gradient on the NAM. Part of LOT's advisory area would be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sharp gradient on the NAM. Part of LOT's advisory area would be in trouble. Nightmare of a forecast for the DVN crew as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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