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MN Transplant

Oct. 31st - Nov. 2nd wind and cold event

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This is what caught my attention with last nights euro ens run. 

 

This is the furthest south the h5 mean has shown so the trend is good.

 

 

post-2035-0-00882100-1414504730_thumb.gi

 

 

The low locations caught my eye as well. First time I've seen a identifiable cluster of surface lows close enough to make things interesting. 

 

0z Sat

 

post-2035-0-91279400-1414504776_thumb.gi

 

 

6z Sat

 

post-2035-0-01974200-1414504790_thumb.gi

 

 

12z Sat

 

post-2035-0-21178800-1414504807_thumb.gi

 

 

There's a couple pieces interacting so there will likely be unpredictable shifts in guidance for a couple days. Won't really know how this evolves for a few days but being that there is potential and a very amplified/energetic pattern, it's gonna be fun to watch unfold. 

 

I hope the south trend continues but the ridge/trough positions are tight and not optimal for us to get a good storm. We'll need luck. Wind looks like a lock at this point. 

 

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Dry / wind sucks. 

 

 

23 euro members using a 3rd grade algorithm show accum snow for you. One shows 10". 

 

12 members for DCA. 

 

Mean precip is around .40 at dca but it's skewed from 8 or so members showing 1"+. 

 

Phin will need his shovel if he goes to deep creek. 7" mean snowfall. I could actually see Garrett Co getting a nice shot with this one. They stand 2 chances with synoptic and orographic. 

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This is what caught my attention with last nights euro ens run. 

 

This is the furthest south the h5 mean has shown so the trend is good.

 

Nice post.  Close enough to break our hearts if this was January.  But, looks like a fun event either way.

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23 euro members using a 3rd grade algorithm show accum snow for you. One shows 10"

 

12 members for DCA. 

 

Mean precip is around .40 at dca but it's skewed from 8 or so members showing 1"+. 

 

Phin will need his shovel if he goes to deep creek. 7" mean snowfall. I could actually see Garrett Co getting a nice shot with this one. They stand 2 chances with synoptic and orographic. 

 

lol.

 

I'm all in.

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23 euro members using a 3rd grade algorithm show accum snow for you. One shows 10". 

 

12 members for DCA. 

 

Mean precip is around .40 at dca but it's skewed from 8 or so members showing 1"+. 

 

Phin will need his shovel if he goes to deep creek. 7" mean snowfall. I could actually see Garrett Co getting a nice shot with this one. They stand 2 chances with synoptic and orographic. 

Please God, no.  Just please.

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Heh, gfs....closes off h5 in NC/SC. Wow. The mystery deepens. 

 

lol.  The hour 93 map looks pretty appetizing. 

 

It'll be nice to get slapped in the face with disappointment early this year to keep us all in line in January.

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No phase and trough isn't sharp enough so it's going to miss wide right with the precip. But it was a move towards the euro. Would love to see h5 close off near the nc/va border and then have the trough go neutral/negative. 

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Guess I will be the first weenie to mention it this winter, but the GGEM at 84 h5 looks somewhat similar to the GFS at that time with the h5 energy in IN... though the energy on the GFS is more centered in W IN while the GGEM is more in E IN

 

GGEM digs it like the GFS at 96... but 12z GFS h5 was closed, h5 on GGEM is open, but both are in the same general area... and 102 at least makes a gander of a look... but meh

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Unlike some here I hate warm Novembers. Sweating and wearing a t-shirt and shorts in your kitchen as you put the turkey in the oven sucks.

This times a million.  Sweating while closing the garden and back yard out for the season is just awful.

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Pretty strong piece of h5 energy left behind on the GGEM at 114 just south of us... someone else can confirm, but it looks like too little too late and a just miss on this run for some flurry action here

 

-8c 850s for DCA Sun morning (120 hrs)... -3c 925 at DCA... so right around freezing lows and prob some upper 20s in N and W suburbs... setting up for a cool Sunday in the 40s IMO

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Pretty strong piece of h5 energy left behind on the GGEM at 114 just south of us... someone else can confirm, but it looks like too little too late and a just miss on this run for some flurry action here

 

-8c 850s for DCA Sun morning (120 hrs)... -3c 925 at DCA... so right around freezing lows and prob some upper 20s in N and W suburbs... setting up for a cool Sunday in the 40s IMO

 

It's too late for anything meaningful. GGEM is messy with the phase like the gfs. Close but no cigar on the runs. GGEM briefly closes h5 almost overhead at hr 96 but it the trough is still positive so out she goes. Both the GFS and GGEM are close to a pretty big storm that would impact the coast. 

 

Here's hr 108. You can see just missing the mark with phasing the h5 energy. 

 

post-2035-0-85264800-1414516980_thumb.gi

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Any feasible scenarios for mid-air flurries in the DMV itself or is that a fantasy still?

 

Big dynamic storm that gets it's act together south of us is probably the only way. Anything strung out or weak at our latitude won't stand much of a chance. Just root for h5 closing off south of us (like eastern TN/western NC) as the trough axis is going negative. That's what I'm rooting for and it can't be ruled out yet. 

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Big dynamic storm that gets it's act together south of us is probably the only way. Anything strung out or weak at our latitude won't stand much of a chance. Just root for h5 closing off south of us (like eastern TN/western NC) as the trough axis is going negative. That's what I'm rooting for and it can't be ruled out yet. 

yep, remember how far south it was a couple days ago when it first showed up on the radar

it moved well north the next run but has been readjusting south ever since

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Big dynamic storm that gets it's act together south of us is probably the only way. Anything strung out or weak at our latitude won't stand much of a chance. Just root for h5 closing off south of us (like eastern TN/western NC) as the trough axis is going negative. That's what I'm rooting for and it can't be ruled out yet. 

 

Watch me.

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Seems like the 12z Euro isn't as impressive, but I am only looking the Mean Sea Level Pressure map.

 

It's not. Still close. H5 closes in the carolinas but the interaction with the lead low off the coast is messy so there's nothing to see here for us. 

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Ahh, winter.

 

post-1615-0-56509300-1414521581_thumb.pn

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Ahh, winter.

 

 

If this was Jan/Feb I would have that sinking feeling right now...gusts are down to 35mph on the euro as an added bonus. Stupid wind. 

 

Gotta wait until the shortwave is sampled. And take into consideration the model biases at this lead. There's plenty of time for favorable changes. The dgex and jma still show a storm. 

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