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The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Don't look now, but the radar is really starting to pop since 5pm. Some decent returns in VA/NC right now.

Anytime there's a low moving through SC with cold air in place, we should keep an eye out. That can trick the ol' models every once in awhile.

Obviously not anything major, but someone in western VA/NC could see some surprise flurries the next couple hours. :)

Surprise ! I got 17 raindrops.
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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

Some serious cold... Tuesday 1 PM and Wednesday 4 AM. Also a comment from the Atlanta NWS:

SO SPEAKING OF THE COLD AIR...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WHAT IS IN STORE BEHIND THE
EARLY WEEK FRONT IS JUST PLAIN RIDICULOUS. MONDAY NIGHT WE HAVE
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH...AND FOR TUESDAY
HIGHS...BRACE YOURSELVES...LOWER TO MID 30S AT BEST NORTH AND
UPPER 40S SOUTH. A HIGH OF 39 IN ATLANTA IN NOVEMBER IS JUST
CRAZINESS. BUT...CURRENT BLEND IS ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER /YES
WARMER/ THAN CONSENSUS SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
TEMPS. JUST KIND OF MISERABLE. EVEN RIDICULOUSLY COLDER TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. 

 

post-594-0-44611500-1415965200_thumb.jpg

 

 

post-594-0-47449800-1415965207_thumb.jpg

 

 

 

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Well no doubt it's been dry lately. All of us who have been complaining about it, myself included, are about to see the old rubber band theory unfold here in a couple of weeks. December and January will work out above normal precipitation wise for alot of us. Nino is fixing to come to life as we head towards turkey day and beyond. It's influence will be suttle at first but should be throwing some decent punches as we head into January. Been several years since we got to see the stj active in the winter, 4 to be exact. I for one can't wait. We are gonna get one of these 7 to 10 day artic outbreaks to clash with the active stj and get one of those awesome stretches of winter weather where we see 3 to 4 snow ice events unfold back to back to back, just like we saw in January of 2000 here in central North Carolina. People remember the Carolina crusher but they forget the weekend preceeding that Monday event and the measly 5 inch storm the following Thursday.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Well no doubt it's been dry lately. All of us who have been complaining about it, myself included, are about to see the old rubber band theory unfold here in a couple of weeks. December and January will work out above normal precipitation wise for alot of us. Nino is fixing to come to life as we head towards turkey day and beyond. It's influence will be suttle at first but should be throwing some decent punches as we head into January. Been several years since we got to see the stj active in the winter, 4 to be exact. I for one can't wait. We are gonna get one of these 7 to 10 day artic outbreaks to clash with the active stj and get one of those awesome stretches of winter weather where we see 3 to 4 snow ice events unfold back to back to back, just like we saw in January of 2000 here in central North Carolina. People remember the Carolina crusher but they forget the weekend preceeding that Monday event and the measly 5 inch storm the following Thursday.

 

Yep, that was a prolific period.  Wouldn't mind seeing that repeat throughout the winter. :):snowman:

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toxictwister00

toxictwister00

Posted
Posted

Some serious cold... Tuesday 1 PM and Wednesday 4 AM. Also a comment from the Atlanta NWS:

SO SPEAKING OF THE COLD AIR...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL

SIDE OF NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WHAT IS IN STORE BEHIND THE

EARLY WEEK FRONT IS JUST PLAIN RIDICULOUS. MONDAY NIGHT WE HAVE

LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH...AND FOR TUESDAY

HIGHS...BRACE YOURSELVES...LOWER TO MID 30S AT BEST NORTH AND

UPPER 40S SOUTH. A HIGH OF 39 IN ATLANTA IN NOVEMBER IS JUST

CRAZINESS. BUT...CURRENT BLEND IS ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER /YES

WARMER/ THAN CONSENSUS SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON

TEMPS. JUST KIND OF MISERABLE. EVEN RIDICULOUSLY COLDER TUESDAY

NIGHT WITH SOME LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. 

 

attachicon.giftemp_tues_1pm.jpg

 

 

attachicon.giftemp_wed_4am.jpg

 

Some record lows will surely be broken/shattered. I had to look it up, but I think the record low for Atlanta that day is 18° set back in 1903.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Well no doubt it's been dry lately. All of us who have been complaining about it, myself included, are about to see the old rubber band theory unfold here in a couple of weeks. December and January will work out above normal precipitation wise for alot of us. Nino is fixing to come to life as we head towards turkey day and beyond. It's influence will be suttle at first but should be throwing some decent punches as we head into January. Been several years since we got to see the stj active in the winter, 4 to be exact. I for one can't wait. We are gonna get one of these 7 to 10 day artic outbreaks to clash with the active stj and get one of those awesome stretches of winter weather where we see 3 to 4 snow ice events unfold back to back to back, just like we saw in January of 2000 here in central North Carolina. People remember the Carolina crusher but they forget the weekend preceeding that Monday event and the measly 5 inch storm the following Thursday.

 

I think we actually had snow twice in the week leading up to the big one in Jan 2000. It would be awesome to be in a pattern like that again with back to back threats.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Well, the light snow this morning was a surprise. I don't recall any of the local forecasts calling for that. I know there was a chance of rain yesterday, but I don't even think rain was in the forecast for today. Looks like the system was slower to come through than thought. I know it wasn't much, but it was cool to see this time of year. Makes you wonder about what's to come this winter.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Well no doubt it's been dry lately. All of us who have been complaining about it, myself included, are about to see the old rubber band theory unfold here in a couple of weeks. December and January will work out above normal precipitation wise for alot of us. Nino is fixing to come to life as we head towards turkey day and beyond. It's influence will be suttle at first but should be throwing some decent punches as we head into January. Been several years since we got to see the stj active in the winter, 4 to be exact. I for one can't wait. We are gonna get one of these 7 to 10 day artic outbreaks to clash with the active stj and get one of those awesome stretches of winter weather where we see 3 to 4 snow ice events unfold back to back to back, just like we saw in January of 2000 here in central North Carolina. People remember the Carolina crusher but they forget the weekend preceeding that Monday event and the measly 5 inch storm the following Thursday.

Although KATL total SN/IP was only a trace during January of 2000, Atlanta area got two major ZR's exactly one week apart during consecutive weekends, one when the Super Bowl was there. By the way, those ZR's were the first major ones since all of the way back in Feb., 1979! While the 1980's and 1990's had some ZR on a number of occasions including a moderate but VERY slippery one on MLK day during the 1990's, none were the widespread power outage producing kind. This drought of 21 years is the longest by far since records started in 1879. The second longest was only 13 years, which was during the highly anomalous very snowy period of 1892-1905 (~250% of normal). Interestingly, the 1979-2000 drought was also during a snowy/sleety period that generated ~150% of normal.

Edited for careless error (a date).

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 Interestingly, the early part of the 12Z Euro 6-10 day has a notable westward shift of the upper air features over and near North America vs the 0Z Euro. As a result, days 6-8 are MUCH colder in the N Plains vs. the 0Z. Could this be the start of a colder modeling trend for late Nov. or is this just a burp? I'll assume burp for now but we'll see.

 

Edit: Example: at 192 hours, the 12Z Euro has 850 of -12C at MSP associated with a NEW Arctic high. The 0Z Euro had 0C and NO Arctic high.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

 Interestingly, the early part of the 12Z Euro 6-10 day has a notable westward shift of the upper air features over and near North America vs the 0Z Euro. As a result, days 6-8 are MUCH colder in the N Plains vs. the 0Z. Could this be the start of a colder modeling trend for late Nov. or is this just a burp? I'll assume burp for now but we'll see.

 

Edit: Example: at 192 hours, the 12Z Euro has 850 of -12C at MSP associated with a NEW Arctic high. The 0Z Euro had 0C and NO Arctic high.

Just looked at the same thing. It is interesting at keeping a trough primarily over the East and the Great Lakes. Will have to see if this is a trend. A new look to this period from the past couple of days.

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

12z Euro has 1-2" qpf over all the SE states the next 10 days.

Let me guess, after cold shot first of the week. It warms up and a lot of rain!!!  Of course we warn enough between the two shots of cold to get RAIN Sunday night.  :axe:  I know it's way early in the season, but these air masses are plenty cold enough for mix bag if it was timed right....

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WSNC

WSNC

Posted
Posted

12z GEM has nice CAD showing up at 192 with moisture moving in NC piedmont.  Also has single digit lows Wednesday for a lot of western NC   Probably too cold, but impressive model run for mid November.  There are a lot of winters where we don't make it to single digits here.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Let me guess, after cold shot first of the week. It warms up and a lot of rain!!! Of course we warn enough between the two shots of cold to get RAIN Sunday night. :axe: I know it's way early in the season, but these air masses are plenty cold enough for mix bag if it was timed right....

Correct, nothing wintery on the horizon. Hopefully by mid-Dec for you guys.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Just looked at the same thing. It is interesting at keeping a trough primarily over the East and the Great Lakes. Will have to see if this is a trend. A new look to this period from the past couple of days.

 

 Well, now the 0Z Sat GFS is joining the 12Z Euro in bringing in that new Arctic high into the N Plains/Mwest 11/21-2, Example: at hour 156, 850 at MSP is -13 vs. ~-4 on the prior 2 runs for same time.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Well, now the 0Z Sat GFS is joining the 12Z Euro in bringing in that new Arctic high into the N Plains/Mwest 11/21-2, Example: at hour 156, 850 at MSP is -13 vs. ~-4 on the prior 2 runs for same time.

Man, that sounds good! Tell the plains and Rockies to quit hogging all the arctic air and let's direct the next shot more directly into the SE
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