jburns Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 jburns, Respectully disagreeing, questioning, and discussing is one thing. However, disrespectfully bashing is another. My post was a statement, not a premise for debate. I have moved from interacting with this, into reacting to it. You(plural) need to adjust accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 18z GFS has about the same look as the 12z for the day 6/7 event. Maybe a little colder with the 850s pushing into NC to keep or change many to snow. STILL, at this time, these are details that should be taken with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgebridge Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 18z GFS has about the same look as the 12z for the day 6/7 event. Maybe a little colder with the 850s pushing into NC to keep or change many to snow. STILL, at this time, these are details that should be taken with a grain of salt. I'm much more interested in the 16th-19th period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I don't know which topic to post this in, so I'll throw this out in here... Is anyone else surprised that despite all these cold surges, very strong fronts, and radical temperature plunges, the SE has pretty much avoided their second 'severe storm/tornadic season'? I'm not complaining at all, but it seems unusual that we haven't really had to deal with any significant severe weather this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I don't know which topic to post this in, so I'll throw this out in here... Is anyone else surprised that despite all these cold surges, very strong fronts, and radical temperature plunges, the SE has pretty much avoided their second 'severe storm/tornadic season'? I'm not complaining at all, but it seems unusual that we haven't really had to deal with any significant severe weather this fall. There's no moisture! It's dry as a desert around my neck of the woods. Making dry or mostly dry frontal passages. The gulf has been mostly closed, I think dry air is bad for instability .? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 18z GFS has about the same look as the 12z for the day 6/7 event. Maybe a little colder with the 850s pushing into NC to keep or change many to snow. STILL, at this time, these are details that should be taken with a grain of salt. The great thing is something keeps showing up on the models, both for 6 to 7 days and the 16 to 19 period as mentioned. The trends are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 There's no moisture! It's dry as a desert around my neck of the woods. Making dry or mostly dry frontal passages. The gulf has been mostly closed, I think dry air is bad for instability .? The 18z GFS says we finally get rain or maybe snow in the long range. Hopefully it'll be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I don't know which topic to post this in, so I'll throw this out in here... Is anyone else surprised that despite all these cold surges, very strong fronts, and radical temperature plunges, the SE has pretty much avoided their second 'severe storm/tornadic season'? I'm not complaining at all, but it seems unusual that we haven't really had to deal with any significant severe weather this fall. Yes, usually in NC it is the week before or the week of Thanksgiving. I think NC still leads the nation in deaths to overnight tornadoes in November. This year it looks like we might have to deal with winter weather instead. I guess it is a good thing we didn't have really warm weather before this extreme cold that is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I think the 0z GFS is bringing the funk, that's a good thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 To my untrained map reading eye, the 0z run of Euro, didnt look that cold to me. Chilly next weekend then warmup by 17th , followed by another cold shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 To my untrained map reading eye, the 0z run of Euro, didnt look that cold to me. Chilly next weekend then warmup by 17th , followed by another cold shot Better watch out. If they hear you talk about a warm up, Winter is over! Anyway, Euro doesn't look quite right with that "warm-up". I'd wait for the ensemble/12z run tomorrow. The Euro hasn't been immune to major flips this fall. In fact, it has been about like the GFS showing some crazy ridge scenarios that never really happened. Wish I wasn't drunk & tired, I can post some images/links about it tomorrow. Edit: this isn't to say we wont have a period of warmer temps.. maybe even above average... it is November after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Yeah, the Euro is a furnace day 10, ...in all seriousness, the trough is a little west of where you want it for us to feel the brunt of the cold but it's very cold day 10 and continues on through day 15 on the Euro ENS. Edit: In fact day 11-15 look really good, if this was Dec 8th I would be more excited, but it's still nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 For my Western Carolina peeps, I'll just throw out there the temperature averages for GSP and Asheville for this time of the year... GSP: 62 AVL: 59 The maps starting Day 5 are around 10 below normal for WNC. The maps shown on the Euro from Days 7-10 are anywhere from 15-20 degrees below average...and for the Upstate and Foothills on Day 9 (18z Monday 17th) thanks to a surface wedge keeping the temps in the 30's that would be a departure of about 25 below normal... In a literal sense this cold outbreak coming may not seem as impressive to some...but relative to climatology this is going to be very significant...I know for sure that I would not want to see these departures in January...oh wait, we already have this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Falls, Interesting idea. However, I'd prefer not to do so much refining for two reasons: 1) More refining reduces the sample size and, therefore, statistical credibility. 2) That would take a whole lot more work and wouldn't necessarily be so cut and dry to try to classify. Larry, joe d aleo has a great post up this morning with a cold Nov matching up well with his cold winter analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 For my Western Carolina peeps, I'll just throw out there the temperature averages for GSP and Asheville for this time of the year... GSP: 62 AVL: 59 The maps starting Day 5 are around 10 below normal for WNC. The maps shown on the Euro from Days 7-10 are anywhere from 15-20 degrees below average...and for the Upstate and Foothills on Day 9 (18z Monday 17th) thanks to a surface wedge keeping the temps in the 30's that would be a departure of about 25 below normal... In a literal sense this cold outbreak coming may not seem as impressive to some...but relative to climatology this is going to be very significant...I know for sure that I would not want to see these departures in January...oh wait, we already have this year. Well said! I'm pumped about the blast and the possibilities of wintry precip it brings this early in the season. Never liked eating turkey in shorts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Well said! I'm pumped about the blast and the possibilities of wintry precip it brings this early in the season. Never liked eating turkey in shorts!euro ensembles continue the strong blocking with a trough in the East over the next 15 days. That's as far as the model runs. Almost to thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Well said! I'm pumped about the blast and the possibilities of wintry precip it brings this early in the season. Never liked eating turkey in shorts!euro ensembles continue the strong blocking with a trough in the East over the next 15 days. That's as far as the model runs. Almost to thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Remember when the only people who mentioned the polar vortex was all of us nerds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Remember when the only people who mentioned the polar vortex was all of us nerdsPepperidge Farm remembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 AO headed towards -5 on the upgraded GFS and Euro by day 10. Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Remember when the only people who mentioned the polar vortex was all of us nerds Yep. The media overdid it terribly. People were really thinking it was THE polar vortex that was in the United States and there even started to be panic. Not quite sure who started it, but my vote if for Al Roker. Nothing ridiculously cold per 00z Euro ensemble members for KCAE. 15/16th time-frame may dip into the mid-upper 20s around Rock Hill though. Quite a while away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Pepperidge Farm remembers. Literally laughed out loud. That is great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 WxSouth just posted on facebook. Seems he thinks we will be in a repeating pattern of really cold shots and storms throughout winter. Said the 1051 mb high will be a common feature this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 12z GFS with an intriguing look around day 7, of course it falls apart but I would take that look any time of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 WxSouth just posted on facebook. Seems he thinks we will be in a repeating pattern of really cold shots and storms throughout winter. Said the 1051 mb high will be a common feature this winter.That's great, unless they mostly stay in the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Looks like the cold is pushed back a couple of days on the Euro, starting to really look like winter now! Everything is 10 days+ away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Looks like the cold is pushed back a couple of days on the Euro, starting to really look like winter now! Everything is 10 days+ away Huh? The Euro is still showing the arctic front making it through the SE next Thursday/Friday, which is only 5/6 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Huh? The Euro is still showing the arctic front making it through the SE next Thursday/Friday, which is only 5/6 days away.Yes, that shot is becoming short lived, warmup by Sunday . Guess I meant the next bigger one behind it, just too much variation from run to run and model to model. I guess pattern change is so big, the models can't get a grip. What happened to the wintry precip threats. , are they gone or delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Scratching my head on this one (seems to generally fly in the face of all we're seeing and reading): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I thought the Euro looked very cold at the end of it's run. You have a very dense cold airmass dropping in with 534 thickness dropping into Alabama. You're also seeing extremely cold 850's showing up near central Canada with -20 850's around Ohio. While these cold air masses may moderate by the time we get to them the fact is on the models it's looking like the middle of January. These look straight up like winter patterns. I think that's what's so exciting right now. What actually happens is a whole nother story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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