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August 2014 Obs and Discussion


H2O

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76/55 at National Harbor. Too bad the beginning of September is going to resemble late July and early August. Let's hope it is short term, although I trust Bob and his assessment of the long wave pattern and that it sucks for us low dew point and cooler-than-normal temperature folks. C'est la vie. Can't complain too much. It's been a great summer.

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It's looking more likely that September will be above average, as Bob noted. The CFSv2 shows the month of September running 1.5-2C above normal for the Mid-Atlantic.

 

The CFSv2 is also showing a 2C negative departure for the first 12 days of October. I'm hoping this is true, because I'm really done with the heat.

 

But as EastCoast NPZ said, above normal temps in the fall is still nice.

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10-15 degree difference between DCA and surrounding station lows.  At what point do the "scientists" in charge say enough is enough? 15-20, 20, 25????????????

 

I guess they could change the station...where do you want to move it?  any suggestions?..honestly, if you don't want it at DCA, you should have a spot in mind...I'd be down with Andrews...I think they get a bit more snow too...Logan was 15 degrees warmer than some surrounding burbs last night...I think they have it worse...definitely don't move it to Annapolis...they were 64....

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Dry air and clear skies in Fall are ideal conditions for radiative cooling and local microclimactic variations to become apparent.  Especially in our area where we have hundreds of feet of elevation change, a couple major rivers, the Bay, the ocean, the mountains, even without all the urban/suburban issues.    

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The reality is there are cubic tons of atmosphere pressing upon the region with 52-55* temps.  What type of "barbque lid" does DCA have over it to thwart the Much More powerful atmosphere? How can densely populated site just 5-10 miles away, some even further south, be over 10 degrees cooler. When is enough enough? 20 degree discrepancies? I think you have to go to either Jacksonville or Miami to find a warmer metro reading.  NWS and FAA need to get off their dead as*es and quit try to justify the unjustifyable.

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I suppose it comes down to the question "is the weather station reporting conditions that are representative for the area of the population it is meant to serve?"

 

I think DCA evidently does that.  When it reports 33 and rain while IAD is 30 and snow, and it's raining in DC and snowing at Dulles, that seems pretty spot on to me.

 

Mount Washington's reported conditions are nowhere close to the conditions in Conway NH, but they are an accurate portrayal of the weather on Mount Washington and some of the other peaks in the White Mountains.  So comparing the observations of one location to the observations at "nearby" locations doesn't seem valid, IMO.

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DCA is fine imo. Even if it wasn't where would you move it to make it more representative?

Representative for what?  That's the question.  It's usually pretty representative for downtown DC.  It's obviously not representative of "the region", but we have IAD, BWI and others for that. 

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The same thing happens up here. Places north and south of me are 3-5 degrees cooler at night. Sometimes I'll get the random "win", and be a degree cooler than places around me. My elevation is only 30ft, and I'm right on an inlet to the Bay, so that makes me warmer. But then there's the issue of places south of me that are also on the water, and still end up cooler.

 

I'm still trying to figure out why it's "warm" here. I was thinking wind, or maybe humidity, but honestly I don't know. If anyone has any idea why, that would be awesome.

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Representative for what?  That's the question.  It's usually pretty representative for downtown DC.  It's obviously not representative of "the region", but we have IAD, BWI and others for that. 

I have to pretty much agree with this. The region is vast and the micro climates are numerous. The more trees or the more concrete, blah blah blah. But even DC has it's differences. Rock Creek park will definitely be cooler than parts of DC, like Capitol Hill. You have to pick and lock into a permanent spot. DCA has time on it's side. I don't have stats handy but it probably is close to the average of any spot in DC. Good enough for the city. The "region" has other stations.

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