Tornadomachine Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 LOL. You're gonna get the Sooner to be aroused this morning.Who, me? I see it, kinda. I wanna see the hrrr fore I get real excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 ...ERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... A LEADING UPPER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT ERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MOISTURE MOVING NWD OFF THE ATLANTIC. HEATING UPSTREAM ACROSS NY...AS WELL AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS. SHEAR PROFILES WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE WEAK THUS ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND LIKELY WEAK. OTHER STORMS WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY APPROACH THE SRN NY AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ACROSS PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Pretty meh up this way other then some steadier precip in some of these showers for tomorrow into monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Gee whiz, 450m/s2 3km velocity max goes from Ohio to Virginia tomorrow. I smell an outbreak. We max out at 150 in the morning. This as per the gfs. Seems meh, lots of morning convection followed by a biblical evening deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 ...ERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... A LEADING UPPER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT ERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MOISTURE MOVING NWD OFF THE ATLANTIC. HEATING UPSTREAM ACROSS NY...AS WELL AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS. SHEAR PROFILES WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE WEAK THUS ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND LIKELY WEAK. OTHER STORMS WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY APPROACH THE SRN NY AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ACROSS PA. Sound's like there's a decent shot of it occurring. The usual caveat of "what could go wrong" does apply though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Sound's like there's a decent shot of it occurring. The usual caveat of "what could go wrong" does apply though.Shall we count the ways... I'm seeing morning convection as the big issue, with not enough capping being the culprit there. The apparent lack of shear looks problematic as well. Best dynamics will be well to the south, closer to the triple point. Looks to be a high cape low shear event, much like the early June surprise events. A supercell or two with hail seems to be the case, if it all comes together just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Shall we count the ways... I'm seeing morning convection as the big issue, with not enough capping being the culprit there. The apparent lack of shear looks problematic as well. Best dynamics will be well to the south, closer to the triple point. Looks to be a high cape low shear event, much like the early June surprise events. A supercell or two with hail seems to be the case, if it all comes together just right.He was talking the early morning TOR threat modeling has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 The 12z Euro has a LI-CT jackpot tomorrow morning with more convection across the area in the afternoon. 12z-18z ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f30.png 18z-0z ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f36.png Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Modeling def all has that remnant EML over us tonight and tomorrow. Anytime we have that in place..fun things tend to happen if past is any indication Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 I think there may be a few spin ups tomorrow afternoon...0-6km shear is impressive for SNE. Steep lapse rates will help fatten the CAPE too.Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 I think there may be a few spin ups tomorrow afternoon...0-6km shear is impressive for SNE. Steep lapse rates will help fatten the CAPE too.Nice. Gonna suck not having you in VT for added winter storm analysis this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 I think there may be a few spin ups tomorrow afternoon...0-6km shear is impressive for SNE. Steep lapse rates will help fatten the CAPE too.Nice. Tomorrow morning is the time for TOR's. PM storms if there are any would be wet micros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Gonna suck not having you in VT for added winter storm analysis this winter. I'm super busy with work but don't worry. Once winter comes I'll be all over all of new England's weather. Plus I'll be working PF super early hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Tomorrow morning is the time for TOR's. PM storms if there are any would be wet microsDepends on tonight's MCS track and timing. I could see late morning into mid afternoon personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Depends on tonight's MCS track and timing. I could see late morning into mid afternoon personally. Hopefully some up in Jackson and N Conway between Sunday and Monday..Would like to see a few long trackers up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Hopefully some up in Jackson and N Conway between Sunday and Monday..Would like to see a few long trackers up there You need a good ol' NNE severe event with ski areas seeing acres of forest gone in seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 You need a good ol' NNE severe event with ski areas seeing acres of forest gone in seconds. What we wouldn't give to witness that..Yes agree. No damage to structures..but massive blowdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Eddie with a nice pickup on Twitter. RPM with a couple OTG tomorrow afternoon Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx 43m High CAPE(2,000J/kg)+0-6km shear(35-40kts) could lead to super cellular convection tomorrow in SNE. RPM valid 330pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 tmrw does look interesting .. nice hodographs, especially in the lower lvls + adequete shear + moderately unstable airmass. main threat from mid-morning to early afternoon w/ warm front passage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Strong strong wording from Hanrahan. Take notice @ryanhanrahan: Stay weather aware tomorrow... Significant severe weather possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Quincy, Will, and myself will be heading back up early tomorrow AM and may chase if it still looks great...hoping BDL will be a hot spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Tomorrow morning looks pretty good into early aftn. At least at first look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Tomorrow morning looks pretty good into early aftn. At least at first look.my best Tstorms are from northern moving convergence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Eddie with a nice pickup on Twitter. RPM with a couple OTG tomorrow afternoon Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx 43m High CAPE(2,000J/kg)+0-6km shear(35-40kts) could lead to super cellular convection tomorrow in SNE. RPM valid 330pm: #CTtornadowatchThat looks pretty nasty. Mean storm direction looks to be NNE, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 #CTtornadowatch That looks pretty nasty. Mean storm direction looks to be NNE, right? i would think more ENE to NE range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 It would be great to finally get a t-storm this summer. Fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Timing is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 HRRR hammers NNE nada SNE up to 14Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 i would think more ENE to NE rangeWeird, hrrr has a E motion, and a line event. Model disagreement is less than desirable this close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Assuming there's a trigger later in the afternoon, the HRRR is rather encouraging for western SNE today. It wouldn't be a bad thing if the morning convection is on the weaker side, allowing for more destabilization and some residual outflow boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.