REDMK6GLI Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 if this slow trend continues wed might be a flooding day Just checked my EURO finally looks like the big severe will be north or NYC and us not really getting the possible tornadic action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 So events modeled this far out typically come to fruition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Here are some NARR maps from July 10th, 1989...impressive combination of significant shear and strong instability for this part of the country: That ridiculous area of >5 STP, something you very rarely see in the Northeast. CAPE has to be interpolated, but seeing an area of >4,000 J/kg over New York at 18z and the same across southwest Connecticut at 00z just gives you an idea of what it might have been at say 21-22z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Some cellphone pics from yesterday's storm in New Haven, as promised. Never tried to upload pics here before, here goes... Edit: looks like that third one picked up some artifacts when I rotated it, sorry about that - it'll do for now. I also have a few more if anyone really wants to see them. Amazingly photogenic storm for the conditions and for this location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2014 Author Share Posted July 10, 2014 Sweet...going to go into school and register classes another day so not workin unt 5:30 Tuesday and I'm doing early care so I can get out at 3:15 as opposed to 4:45 and I'm going to get my friend from NH to come down to chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Sweet...going to go into school and register classes another day so not workin unt 5:30 Tuesday and I'm doing early care so I can get out at 3:15 as opposed to 4:45 and I'm going to get my friend from NH to come down to chase I hope it pans out. I'm delaying a trip to the White mts. camping with my family because I don't want to be out there on Tuesday night. We'll see what the next few days bring.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2014 Author Share Posted July 10, 2014 Did anyone read this???????????????? TUESDAY...WITH THIS RUN OF MODEL GUIDANCE TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THEGREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A STRONG MID LEVEL LOW IN THEGREAT LAKES COUPLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND YIELDS AN EXCELLENT SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THENORTHEAST INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2014 Author Share Posted July 10, 2014 I hope it pans out. I'm delaying a trip to the White mts. camping with my family because I don't want to be out there on Tuesday night. We'll see what the next few days bring.... Just talked to my friend in NH and it sounds like we are going to do it!@!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Did anyone read this???????????????? TUESDAY...WITH THIS RUN OF MODEL GUIDANCE TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A STRONG MID LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES COUPLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND YIELDS AN EXCELLENT SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. Out of my region but that is very impressive wording from this far out, Paul. Pretty far out still but a good chunk of the Mid atl to NE looks pretty ripe at this point. Going to be checking in here for your thoughts frequently over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2014 Author Share Posted July 10, 2014 Out of my region but that is very impressive wording from this far out, Paul. Pretty far out still but a good chunk of the Mid atl to NE looks pretty ripe at this point. Going to be checking in here for your thoughts frequently over the next few days. When looking at convective and severe weather potential this far out it's always best to look at the synoptic setup on each set of model guidance and look at the consistency from run-to-run along with the agreement of each model and right now the GFS/Euro are both showing an extremely favorable synoptic setup and they both show high amounts of instability would be possible given degree of llvl warmth and moisture. The questions just come down to timing which we can iron out as we get closer. Luckily I'll have ample time this weekend to look at everything and post so I'm pumped there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 When looking at convective and severe weather potential this far out it's always best to look at the synoptic setup on each set of model guidance and look at the consistency from run-to-run along with the agreement of each model and right now the GFS/Euro are both showing an extremely favorable synoptic setup and they both show high amounts of instability would be possible given degree of llvl warmth and moisture. The questions just come down to timing which we can iron out as we get closer. Luckily I'll have ample time this weekend to look at everything and post so I'm pumped there! TV Met Harvey Leonard mentioning the threat this far out i found interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christina311 Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 I just heard about outlook for Tuesday. The media seems to be hyping this a bit, probably due to the storms earlier this week and what happened in upstate NY.I'm off work that day and travelling from the Boston area to Wallingford, CT (I need to be there around 7pm). Of course I'm going to plan my trip accordingly.It's 5 days out, what do you think the chances are that this forecast holds up? Pessimists please speak up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 I personally would wait till the weekend to possibly change any plans. Severe outbreaks especially this far out can be fragile, that said they're are many great posters here that will give great insight into this threat regardless. IF it comes to fruition such as the EURO is saying it would be quite the outbreak for sure, but stay tuned this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 I personally would wait till the weekend to possibly change any plans. Severe outbreaks especially this far out can be fragile, that said they're are many great posters here that will give great insight into this threat regardless. IF it comes to fruition such as the EURO is saying it would be quite the outbreak for sure, but stay tuned this weeke When looking at convective and severe weather potential this far out it's always best to look at the synoptic setup on each set of model guidance and look at the consistency from run-to-run along with the agreement of each model and right now the GFS/Euro are both showing an extremely favorable synoptic setup and they both show high amounts of instability would be possible given degree of llvl warmth and moisture. The questions just come down to timing which we can iron out as we get closer. Luckily I'll have ample time this weekend to look at everything and post so I'm pumped there! 06/01/2011 redux ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 The 12z Euro, while still supportive of some severe weather, had much less impressive wind fields. We're talking a 60kt LLJ right over SNE from 00z, to a messy 30kt wind field displaced further east from the decent instability. I'd like to see some consistency before getting too hyped up about this one. We'll have to thread the needle just right for an actual outbreak, as opposed to spotty reports/brief spinups. Edit: Wow, one thing I overlooked were the dew-point projections from the Euro. Widespread low to mid 70s, including 76 at BDL for 18z Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 The 12z Euro, while still supportive of some severe weather, had much less impressive wind fields. We're talking a 60kt LLJ right over SNE from 00z, to a messy 30kt wind field displaced further east from the decent instability. I'd like to see some consistency before getting too hyped up about this one. We'll have to thread the needle just right for an actual outbreak, as opposed to spotty reports/brief spinups. 100% agree with this, historic outbreaks in this region of the country are rare for a reason and im talking about from NJ all the way deep into NE/north country. I believe the labor day 1998 outbreak was pretty well advertised overall leading up to it correct? that was the last time ive seen BIG storms on LI that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 So...can I tell my neighbors we are all going to die next week? Or should I hold off until Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Where would this "outbreak" rank historically if it comes to fruition as currently modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Where would this "outbreak" rank historically if it comes to fruition as currently modeled?It would be tied with the 1974 super outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I don't see anything remotely historic with what's currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 lol, Its a day 5 threat in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I don't see anything remotely historic with what's currently modeled.Not destroying homes and knocking down thousands of trees, tossing ski lifts like toys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I don't see anything remotely historic with what's currently modeled.Especially with a nearly unidirectional shear pattern and a SW flow aloft. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 No double EF4s = no bueno for Quincy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 No double EF4s = no bueno for Quincy now.Talk about hitting the chasing jackpot, it was pretty late in the severe season as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 No double EF4s = no bueno for Quincy now.If I've learned anything of value this year, it's how to more critically analyze severe weather setups. Being thrown into the (potential) fire day in and day out helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Cold 5 h pools Overperform in SNE in July. This is not OK but something will pop , should be active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I just want a hailer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Cold 5 h pools Overperform in SNE in July. This is not OK but something will pop , should be active.Have to agree that a setup so anomalous for July will produce something, however if people are hoping for a tornado outbreak ala Rev Kev's 12-24 prediction, they'll probably be let down. #antihype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Have to agree that a setup so anomalous for July will produce something, however if people are hoping for a tornado outbreak ala Rev Kev's 12-24 prediction, they'll probably be let down. #antihype Have to agree that a setup so anomalous for July will produce something, however if people are hoping for a tornado outbreak ala Rev Kev's 12-24 prediction, they'll probably be let down. #antihypeYa think? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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