bluewave Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Next week we will be entering a favorable period right after the MJO moves through phases 1-2 for subtropical moisture to be drawn north up the coast along a stalled out frontal boundary. The Euro ensemble mean has an inverted trough developing over the Southeast with the potential for a weak subtropical low or wave to ride north. This pattern in the past in conjunction with the favorable MJO has resulted in heavy rains along the East Coast. We'll have to wait for later model runs to identify this heavy rain potential as we get closer to the period. Models dig a trough into the Lakes and the upper flow turns out of the SSW under a block over the Canadian Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Classic combination of a big Midwestern cut-off/trough, a blocking high over the Maritimes, and thus a stalled front promoting various periods of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 About 35/51 of the ECMWF ensemble members have some type of tropical or sub-tropical low near the southeast coast days 6-10 and about 26/51 total members affect the area with heavy rain. A few individual members spit out >4" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Looks like the 12z GFS has at least a closed off mid-level center over the northern Bahamas by Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Can we have a rule about posting 10+ day maps on here? This is getting ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Can we have a rule about posting 10+ day maps on here? This is getting ridiculous. This thread is specifically for this "threat" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 This thread is specifically for this "threat" Yea, for next week, as in < 240 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Yea, for next week, as in < 240 hours out. It's all connected dude. Not trying to argue with you. The day ten system is all part of the same trough amplification. I could have posted the day 6-7 maps which show the system already organizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 FWIW the 12z ECMWF cuts off over the mid-atlantic next week. Showers Tuesday Showers/Light rain Wednesday Startiform rain Thursday Showers/light rain Friday Showers Saturday morning Moderate rain Saturday evening Moderate rain Sunday 3-4" of rain from next Tuesday through Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 The Euro is quite warm on Monday and after that it's all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 FWIW the 12z ECMWF cuts off over the mid-atlantic next week. Showers Tuesday Showers/Light rain Wednesday Startiform rain Thursday Showers/light rain Friday Showers Saturday morning Moderate rain Saturday evening Moderate rain Sunday 3-4" of rain from next Tuesday through Sunday. Hopefully after this storm we can start drying out consistently and start ushering in warmer air for the entire area after mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Hopefully after this storm we can start drying out consistently and start ushering in warmer air for the entire area after mid month I love this pattern. What a moisture surge on the Euro/GGEM next week. Keeps dews in the low to mid 60's. PW values would likely be >1.00" for an extended period of time. Abundant rain. This month may end up looking similar to August 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 I had a bad feeling that the pattern this Spring would revert to this crap. +NAO patterns eventually reverse into -NAO patterns, backdoor season always hits one way or the other, and progressive patterns eventually revert to cut-off bowling ball buzzkillers that linger for days. The immediate coast's sub-70 streak may continue after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Question, I know it's a long shot but isn't anyone here at least remotely interested in the tropical development for next week. Even if it misses OTS or doesn't form at all it's been a consistent feature now for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 I love this pattern. What a moisture surge on the Euro/GGEM next week. Keeps dews in the low to mid 60's. PW values would likely be >1.00" for an extended period of time. Abundant rain. This month may end up looking similar to August 2011. Thats a bold statement in this neck of the woods, 14.30" IMBY that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 ^^ The models have been showing a big rainstorm. It should be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Thats a bold statement in this neck of the woods, 14.30" IMBY that month. It would be pretty hard to top that month. Of course it had Irene but was a generally wet month to begin with. I believe #2 wettest of all time. Unfortunately we can't include the totals from the April 28-30th system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Hopefully after this storm we can start drying out consistently and start ushering in warmer air for the entire area after mid month Again, you're going to get nearly 4 months of 80+, 2-3 months of 85+, and probably several days at or above 90-95. What's the rush? P.S. We're probably going to get a taste of this heat later this weekend and early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Question, I know it's a long shot but isn't anyone here at least remotely interested in the tropical development for next week. Even if it misses OTS or doesn't form at all it's been a consistent feature now for a few days. Would think waters are a bit chilly for anything truly tropical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 I love this pattern. What a moisture surge on the Euro/GGEM next week. Keeps dews in the low to mid 60's. PW values would likely be >1.00" for an extended period of time. Abundant rain. This month may end up looking similar to August 2011. Why would you say something like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Why would you say something like thisWhat's wrong with this now? Can't you just leave me be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Thats a bold statement in this neck of the woods, 14.30" IMBY that month. Had 21.53 in. here during Aug. of 2011 with over 25 inches during a 30 day period into early Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Would think waters are a bit chilly for anything truly tropical? Up here of course. But down south specifically in and around the Gulf Stream no. I wouldn't e surprised to see extra trop storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 What's wrong with this now? Can't you just leave me be? Nothing. I have no issue with you liking rain...no one should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Would think waters are a bit chilly for anything truly tropical? Definitely, but something sub-tropical isn't out of the question...but by the time any storm like that got here, I don't think it could maintain any tropical characteristics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 I love this pattern. What a moisture surge on the Euro/GGEM next week. Keeps dews in the low to mid 60's. PW values would likely be >1.00" for an extended period of time. Abundant rain. This month may end up looking similar to August 2011. Do you have any maps or discussion to back up this assertion? I mean August 2011 was one of the wettest months on record for many locations in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Some select graphics from that month: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Do you have any maps or discussion to back up this assertion? I mean August 2011 was one of the wettest months on record for many locations in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Some select graphics from that month: Most rain I ever saw (south shore of Nassau Co )in a day was a week or 2 before Irene. Result of training storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Most rain I ever saw (south shore of Nassau Co )in a day was a week or 2 before Irene. Result of training storms. Had 8.65" here on 8/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Nothing. I have no issue with you liking rain...no one should. It's not that he likes rain, it's the fact he compared a historic wet month here to this month with no reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Do you have any maps or discussion to back up this assertion? I mean August 2011 was one of the wettest months on record for many locations in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Some select graphics from that month: Of course he doesn't, lol. That'd be like saying another Sandy is coming this month. Another Irene isn't just magically going to show up. But don't worry guys, he changed his name, he's a different person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.