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Putting winter in its place snow/cold wise

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted

Great article!

Typo here? "The one inch or greater count is also about as high as has ever been seen at IAD. 11 days have reached that mark this winter, with only 2002-03 seeing more days with this level or greater accumulating snow. The average is five days per cold season at IAD."

The graph shows 95/96 being the season that beats this one, not 02/03.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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Great article!

Typo here? "The one inch or greater count is also about as high as has ever been seen at IAD. 11 days have reached that mark this winter, with only 2002-03 seeing more days with this level or greater accumulating snow. The average is five days per cold season at IAD."

The graph shows 95/96 being the season that beats this one, not 02/03.

Yeah, oops. Fixed. 

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RIC_WX

RIC_WX

Posted
Posted

Nice post Ian.  For IAD, you did mention that Jan-Feb-Mar were the first 3 consecutive months of 10"+, however it would also be interesting to note that for every month December-March the snow total managed to run a month over month increase vs. the month prior.  I am quite certain this streak will be broken in April, and feels equally likely this feat will not be replicated in our lifetimes...at least in the context of a winter >200% of average (even lesser still seems a bit unlikely).

 

Really did turn into the total package for winter, snow in every month, cold in every month and solid negative departures for Nov, Jan, Feb and March.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Love the stats Ian. Great article for # heads.

I'm really curious if we are entering a 60's type of stretch coming up. Certainly not as extreme for obvious reasons but maybe this year kicked off a decadal type oscillation. The 50's sucked for cold and snow so it's not like we haven't had warm winter cycles in the past. I'm definitely not sold that a warmer climate is the prime suspect for what we've seen in the last 9 years or so. You could make a case that the warm cycle started in the late 90's.

I enjoyed the extreme nature of the temp swings this winter quite a bit. Kept it interesting for 4 straight months. A -4 Jan with little to no highs above normal is kinda boring in some ways. It's a pretty dry month. Volatility and some decent snow in Jan made this year pretty neat.

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted

The 60s were more consistent than extreme from the stats I've seen. Speaking for BWI, none of the winters that decade exceeded the 1995-96, 2002-03, or of course 2009-10. There was no 18"+ storm either, though the 1966 storm was very impressive in many ways from what Wes told me at the last conference.

 

If NYC (yes, I know it's 40N...) has enjoyed an amazing stretch since 2000, I don't see why it can't happen in our region as well.

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jnis

jnis

Posted
Posted

there was something missing from this winter. It was great..but there isnt that memorable storm....in 15 years, nobody non weenie is going to remember the storm of Feb 2014

Perhaps it is because we are still living in the shadow of 09-10...nothing can and probably will ever compare. Compared to 09-10, the 19" storm in Feb, seems pedestrian. I will more likely remember this winter for the cold storms.

 

Thanks for posting the article Ian. Nice work!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I think a lot of us would feel differently about Feb 2014 if I-95 had gotten HECS totals, and if it wasn't 80 degrees the next day

 

You guys finally had a good ole fashioned winter at least. 4 months of snow and cold to go along with it. I know there were warm periods..but I mean for the overall timeframe. Also a good winter to tell a +AO/NAO to shove it. It won't happen all the time, but the Pacific was boss...it usually is for you guys.

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Fozz

Fozz

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You guys finally had a good ole fashioned winter at least. 4 months of snow and cold to go along with it. I know there were warm periods..but I mean for the overall timeframe. Also a good winter to tell a +AO/NAO to shove it. It won't happen all the time, but the Pacific was boss...it usually is for you guys.

 

Indeed it was an outstanding winter in the area, one of the best I've ever lived through. Very much like 1994 for some of us, which also lacked blocking but had an excellent Pacific deliver a pattern of repeated cold shots and many snowstorms (more in the burbs than I-95 though).

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hosj III

hosj III

Posted
Posted

there was something missing from this winter. It was great..but there isnt that memorable storm....in 15 years, nobody non weenie is going to remember the storm of Feb 2014

The most memorable thing about this winter was the length. I saw my first flakes in late November, and it continued through March 30th. It was also impressive how almost every storm (Except December 10th) overperformed. We had no extended warm/snowless periods either, except perhaps mid-late december. Throughout the rest of the winter, as soon as one snowstorm had lifted out of the area there was another one to track right after. 

 

That said, three things that prevent this from being a memorable winter:

 

1. No deep snow accumulations. Snow depth in my yard never exceeded the 13" at 7:30 AM Feb 13th.

2. No white christmas.

3. Lack of an actual HECS. Feb 12/13th was fun but it still wasn't that much bigger than the March event. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The most memorable thing about this winter was the length. I saw my first flakes in late November, and it continued through March 30th. It was also impressive how almost every storm (Except December 10th) overperformed. We had no extended warm/snowless periods either, except perhaps mid-late december. Throughout the rest of the winter, as soon as one snowstorm had lifted out of the area there was another one to track right after. 

 

That said, three things that prevent this from being a memorable winter:

 

1. No deep snow accumulations. Snow depth in my yard never exceeded the 13" at 7:30 AM Feb 13th.

2. No white christmas.

3. Lack of an actual HECS. Feb 12/13th was fun but it still wasn't that much bigger than the March event. 

 

Huh? This wasn't a memorable winter? Perhaps you mean epic?

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
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While I agree that we technically didn't have a true "HECS", a'la 2009-10, this will be a memorable winter regardless...in my opinion.  Feb. 12-13 was no slouch of an event despite the fact that we got ZR/IP/rain during the day of the 13th, and the quality of that storm may depend on where one was located.  Where I'm at, the overnight snow on the 12th/13th was incredible, I had 12" on the ground by 7AM on the 13th, and despite the "lull" with mostly light rain during the 13th, I still got another 2" at the end of the day with the ULL.  I'll never forget walking around at 3AM with camera in hand, as snow was literally pouring out of the sky!  Add to all that an historical March with not one, not two, but *three* solid events (Mar. 2-3, 16-17, and 25th) in the DC metro area.  It may not have been record breaking for most snow in March, but surely up there in terms of total March snowfall.  The fact that we had a solid winter from late November through March was amazing...and it stands out even more in light of the previous 3 anemic to non-existent winters before it.  Oh, and as I've stated before, we did it despite almost never having true -NAO blocking the entire season.  DCA itself got over 30" this year, and there seemed to always be something to follow right through the end of March.

 

So yeah, we didn't get the big 20" storm this year that people will be writing about in decades to come, but we sure exceled at getting solid moderate or better events the entire winter!

 

If I could (subjectively!) rate the largest/best events this winter, it would go something like this (amounts at my location in parentheses, so caveat emptor of course depending on where anyone else lives!):

 

(1)Feb. 12-13 (14.0")

(2)Mar 16-17 (8.0")

(3)Jan 21 (6.0")

(4)Mar 3 (5.3")

(5)Jan 2-3 (4.0")

 

47.3" total at my location for the season.

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted

Honestly I think some weenies need to quit expecting a HECS as a prerequisite of considering a winter to be good or "memorable". The likes of Jan 1996 and Feb 2010 are top 5 snowstorms for a reason, and are called historic for a reason. If we were able to get a widespread 18"+ storm every few years, then it wouldn't really be considered historic, would it?

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