CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GFS is like an elongated low that is sort of trying to develop but getting shunted SE with time. Euro is too, but the GFS almost moreso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GFS is like an elongated low that is sort of trying to develop but getting shunted SE with time. Euro is too, but the GFS almost moreso. Look at how the 700mb low just sort of meanders across NE NY and C VT. With some upslope assist in the Greens I bet that would produce some pretty sweet fluff in the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 0z RGEM was not as good here as the 18z run was, It is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 0z RGEM was not as good here as the 18z run was, It is what it is Kind of funny how both sets are remaining stubborn. I'd probably give in to the RGEM/Euro too, but the one thing giving me pause is the lack of deepening and the tendency for this too be pushed SE with time. I mean the low does not deepen much east of PA and WAA isn't as strong...the euro does deepen it a bit more with stronger WAA. It probably helped to have this so disjointed too. It will be interesting to see if the euro holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The GFS does have some unrealistic cold on Thursday. It keeps BOS in the mid to upper teens in the afternoon. I'm thinking the low 20s the Euro has is a bit more believable....but still, even though it's not as fun as the big snows for most, the cold Thursday will be ridiculous for this time of year. The midnight highs prevent record low max temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Below to near zero cold mid day in March for a large chunk of NNE Ny state real estate is very impressive. With winds too.Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Below to near zero cold mid day in March for a large chunk of NNE Ny state real estate is very impressive. With winds too.Wow Reminds me of the day after 3/8/05 flash freeze storm. I think we had a high of like 17 with absolutely brutal winds. Can't imagine how nasty it felt up in the mountains that day. Thursday will be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Reminds me of the day after 3/8/05 flash freeze storm. I think we had a high of like 17 with absolutely brutal winds. Can't imagine how nasty it felt up in the mountains that day. Thursday will be similar. pretty sick snow sounding for PFs hood on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Talk about fluff factors, woah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Talk about fluff factors, woah That's actually almost too cold. That large isothermal layer is near -18C where the snow growth starts to decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 These model runs are pretty special. 00z GFS with 1.25-1.5" and just awesome frontogenic forcing. Pretty decent duration system as progged, too...like 24 hours on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 These model runs are pretty special. 00z GFS with 1.25-1.5" and just awesome frontogenic forcing. Pretty decent duration system as progged, too...like 24 hours on the GFS.it satisfies a lot of your fetishes in 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 it satisfies a lot of your fetishes in 48 hours Nah, the seasonal trend is to push everything SE...N VT will get marginal warning amounts. This should hit the areas that have been hit all year. Just teasing powderfreak ....but this is exhibit A of why persistence forecasting is not taught....because you will get completely burnt eventually. Climo is pretty powerful. This one has looked pretty damned good for NNE almost the whole way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GFS is cold and has better wrap around for SNE, would love for it to find a nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 So with all the rain and crashing temps, anyone think SNE is in for at least advisories? Seems like flash freezing on roadways, Thurs. AM rushhour, no? Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 So with all the rain and crashing temps, anyone think SNE is in for at least advisories? Seems like flash freezing on roadways, Thurs. AM rushhour, no? Sent from my VS980 4G The flash freeze is pretty dependent on how much low level moisture is still around when temps crash. Some guidance is much more bullish than others. If it goes to a 1-2 hour period of moderate/heavy sleet/snow as it crashes and then drags on another several hours with steady light snow...then its going to be a nightmare....but if its like that 3-4 mile vis snow with drying low levels for hours, then a lot of moisture will evaporate and the situation will be much more managable. GFS is def the worst. Euro was actually pretty nasty too...esp N of the pike. 00z NAM wasn't impressive at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 That r/s line crashes se on the GFS. A few more ticks south and I may end up with several inches. One can only hope EURO follows suit and RGEM comes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The flash freeze is pretty dependent on how much low level moisture is still around when temps crash. Some guidance is much more bullish than others. If it goes to a 1-2 hour period of moderate/heavy sleet/snow as it crashes and then drags on another several hours with steady light snow...then its going to be a nightmare....but if its like that 3-4 mile vis snow with drying low levels for hours, then a lot of moisture will evaporate and the situation will be much more managable. GFS is def the worst. Euro was actually pretty nasty too...esp N of the pike. 00z NAM wasn't impressive at all. Yeah,GFS has one frame of .5 stuff at 33hrs (9z thurs) with the MLs already around -8. Gonna be hard for me to sleep through that evolution! I noticed too that the NAM has that ULL going overhead on Thurs with what appears to my weenie eyes as light snow and -20 at 850? I mean, some of those temps you mentioned earlier for BOS on Thurs. are just amazing. Argueably, Thurs. seems like one of the coldest days of the season factoring in the winds! Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Anyone going to pbp the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Anyone going to pbp the euro? I guess not. Dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 euro please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Nam is a tick cooler, tad se Still pretty much same but cooler temps crash to 20's in bos (below freezing) by 1am 495 around 10-1030pm Euro's W 850 0c line Stratton to Sunapee to IZG at 0z tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 meh for here but could be fun for a couple hours.. would love a trend colder today but I think hope of that is fading fast never know this year though Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA408 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014...FLASH FREEZE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS RAINTRANSITIONS TO SNOW ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZINGRAIN POSSIBLE...CTZ002>004-MAZ004>019-026-RIZ001>005-121615-/O.EXB.KBOX.WW.Y.0012.140313T0200Z-140313T1600Z/HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...AYER...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL408 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TONOON EDT THURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TONOON EDT THURSDAY.* LOCATIONS...MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND EXCEPT FORTHE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. THE ADVISORY ALSO INCLUDES NORTHERNCONNECTICUT.* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIODOF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MOSTLOCATIONS. 2 TO 4 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF ROUTE2. ICE ACCRETION OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE ALSOPOSSIBLE.* TIMING...STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TOEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWESTTO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ANDFREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE TRANSITION. SNOW SHOWERSWILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THEAFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR A FLASH FREEZE AS TEMPERATURESPLUMMET INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. ROADS MAY QUICKLY FREEZEOVER AS COLDER AIR QUICKLY RUSHES INTO THE REGION. A SMALL SNOWACCUMULATION MAY HIDE SOME OF THE ICE. THE THURSDAY MORNING RUSHHOUR MAY BE ICY.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY EARLYTHURSDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GFS warmer, less qpf after the cooler air enters the picture in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'm surprised to see the timing of wintry precip in the Franklin County WWA. Methinks it's a little aggressive. LOCATIONS...FRANKLIN COUNTY IN MASSACHUSETTS. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...STEADY RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING AND END DURING THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Light snow started around 5:30. Looks to be steady now. 28F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GFS finally caving wrt mid level temps. No surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GFS finally caving wrt mid level temps. No surprise there. It was my only hope...... Toaster here this morning. 36.8/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 was actually a pleasant drive across southern Canada yesterday afternoon, felt like spring in the air, even as I left Ottawa. as I reached the border, the first sign of trouble, 2 flashing signs reading: MAJOR WINTER STORM WED-THURS PLAN AHEAD. lol. when I got to walmart, it was amazing to see the entire aisle full of water completely ransacked except for a few tea flavored water....yikes! salt was going at a premium at a couple of local stores. So Im locked and loaded in Burlington, Vermont for this one. Where I live in St albans is terrible for parking on main street, so I really had no choice but to come to Btown and ride out the storm, otherwise my car is as good as buried by the plows (had enough of that during the feb storm), or towed unless I move it every so often, which I had enough of during the ice storm in December thank you very much. comfortably parked in a friends driveway right now and I don't work until Friday. looks like they are expecting 3-6 in Ottawa enough to freshen the glacier lol... and 8-12 in montreal, but Vermont is the big winner for once haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 00z ECM holds and actually got wetter up here. Decent area of 1.8-2" in VT over to NNH/BML/ME MTNS. 1.75-2" includes myself, JSpin, mreeves, cardinal, the Lyndon guys, Allenson, hitman, etc. That's fairly impressive for the Op ECM so close in. There's going to be some good banding. Nice stuff out west by ORD to DTW. QPF seems to be there with ORD/Chicago area with 0.5"+ melted precip in 6-hours as snow. ORD picked up 0.2"/hr fall rates as snow, so the atmosphere seems to have some juice in the cold sector too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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