Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Sooner or later mets will learn to not look at or use GFS. Someday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 And that's the real problem. In crunch time, the NAM/GFS just aren't reliable enough to trust. Yet getting NAM/GFS data is so much easier. It's frustrating not being able to get Euro BUFKIT data or things like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Sooner or later mets will learn to not look at or use GFS. Someday It was mostly tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom12309 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Drove up from Schenectady to Hartland Vt. and currently about 800' up. 36 degrees and raining in the Dorptown at 7am, 31-32 and raining until about halfway up the 11 and 30 hill outside of Manchester and snow the rest of the way. Snowing nice big flakes here, visibility maybe 1/3 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Well... we can pretty much blame Scott like Bruno Mally for this thing cutting on us... Yep -- I remember him making a snide sort of post like 4 days ago, thinking it would be a funny sarcastic jest if he were to post this little verbal gem: 'I guess come this time tomorrow we'll be tracking a big snowstorm for Buffalo...' -- or words to the same affect. Well low and behold, NWS has sweetened the deal by elevating their fever pitch to the Blizzard Warning ...right smack where Scott thought it would all funny to set us up with that karma. Nice goin' Scott. Nice goin' haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Yet getting NAM/GFS data is so much easier. It's frustrating not being able to get Euro BUFKIT data or things like that. It makes for a long day when I have to wait, wait, wait for the Euro data to get into the system to make the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It was mostly tossed. It was pretty clear at 12z yesterday the GFS was on its own. The NAM did better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Well... we can pretty much blame Scott like Bruno Mally for this thing cutting on us... Yep -- I remember him making a snide sort of post like 4 days ago, thinking it would be a funny sarcastic jest if he were to post this little verbal gem: 'I guess come this time tomorrow we'll be tracking a big snowstorm for Buffalo...' -- or words to the same affect. Well low and behold, NWS has sweetened the deal by elevating their fever pitch to the Blizzard Warning ...right smack where Scott thought it would all funny to set us up with that karma. Nice goin' Scott. Nice goin' haha Well since about Friday..ptype was more my worry. Oops. Sorry SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It was pretty clear at 12z yesterday the GFS was on its own. The NAM did better. I know..when it is on its own...time to wipe. I could have wiped harder. I just find it funny that I thought shyed away from it enough..and it still wasn't..lol. Although the euro is probably a little too wet as well for SNE today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I know..when it is on its own...time to wipe. I could have wiped harder. I just find it funny that I thought shyed away from it enough..and it still wasn't..lol. Although the euro is probably a little too wet as well for SNE today. Most of the forcing is back in the cold air, I think we come in with a real big wet bias in parts of our SE CWA. PSM just doesn't look like they'll get in on the heavy, heavy anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I know..when it is on its own...time to wipe. I could have wiped harder. I just find it funny that I thought shyed away from it enough..and it still wasn't..lol. Although the euro is probably a little too wet as well for SNE today. It's actually funny looking at the difference between the higher res Euro and the low res Euro yesterday. The high res version was consistently farther north with the QPF and fairly dry down this way. GFS was just horrible and I think the phantom QPF max it was blowing up along the CT/MA border up through Route 2 was probably doing funky things with where the mid level front would set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Most of the forcing is back in the cold air, I think we come in with a real big wet bias in parts of our SE CWA. PSM just doesn't look like they'll get in on the heavy, heavy anything. It's actually funny looking at the difference between the higher res Euro and the low res Euro yesterday. The high res version was consistently farther north with the QPF and fairly dry down this way. GFS was just horrible and I think the phantom QPF max it was blowing up along the CT/MA border up through Route 2 was probably doing funky things with where the mid level front would set up. It is a classic case of just all forcing along the WF with not much in the warm sector until later and that makes sense. Clearly the GFS like Ryan pointed out was too far south with the WF and thus QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Well I didn't mean to rant..just disappointed in how that model performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Most of the forcing is back in the cold air, I think we come in with a real big wet bias in parts of our SE CWA. PSM just doesn't look like they'll get in on the heavy, heavy anything. I have been noticing this too, that this system is biased on the polarward side. Even the warm or quasi-warm sector there's not really much of a WCB mechanics in play, or the associated big squall time of deal. The wind just of flips and cold rushes in and you get into the action. It has an intense low of course, but doesn't also sort of take on some ANA characteristic. Fascinating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Pretty discouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Well... we can pretty much blame Scott like Bruno Mally for this thing cutting on us... Yep -- I remember him making a snide sort of post like 4 days ago, thinking it would be a funny sarcastic jest if he were to post this little verbal gem: 'I guess come this time tomorrow we'll be tracking a big snowstorm for Buffalo...' -- or words to the same affect. Well low and behold, NWS has sweetened the deal by elevating their fever pitch to the Blizzard Warning ...right smack where Scott thought it would all funny to set us up with that karma. Nice goin' Scott. Nice goin' haha Props to you Tip... you saw the potential for a storm a long time ago by the teleconnectors. It may not work out like you wanted it too, but the teleconnections you mentioned put a strong storm on the east coast and that's exactly what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Most of the forcing is back in the cold air, I think we come in with a real big wet bias in parts of our SE CWA. PSM just doesn't look like they'll get in on the heavy, heavy anything. You don't think all that heavy stuff in PA doesn't slide east across northern SNE up into PSM area? To be honest I was thinking the radar looked more in line with the GFS, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 1:45pm heavy snow, huge parachutes. Vis 1/2 mile but is that high because flakes are so big. 32.3F. Power issues soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Go figure...Euro def cooled at 12z today....areas N of dendrite will probably get more snow than it was saying previously. Euro also has 1-2" for interior MA/S NH for early tomorrow morning. Maybe coating to an inch down into Kevin's hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 You don't think all that heavy stuff in PA doesn't slide east across northern SNE up into PSM area? To be honest I was thinking the radar looked more in line with the GFS, lol. They'll get precip, but I think the heaviest is going to fall just on the cold side of the 850 front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Go figure...Euro def cooled at 12z today....areas N of dendrite will probably get more snow than it was saying previously. Euro also has 1-2" for interior MA/S NH for early tomorrow morning. Maybe coating to an inch down into Kevin's hood. Sounds great to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Go figure...Euro def cooled at 12z today....areas N of dendrite will probably get more snow than it was saying previously. Euro also has 1-2" for interior MA/S NH for early tomorrow morning. Maybe coating to an inch down into Kevin's hood. Yeah looks cooler. Maybe about 0.05" of liquid as snow for N CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Go figure...Euro def cooled at 12z today....areas N of dendrite will probably get more snow than it was saying previously. Euro also has 1-2" for interior MA/S NH for early tomorrow morning. Maybe coating to an inch down into Kevin's hood. I'll take that and run. Is around 1AM a reasonable time for changing over at least to something frozen for N/interior Mass.? Edit: According to the Euro.Sent from my VS980 4G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 +SN, down to 32.5. 3" and pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'll take that and run. Is around 1AM a reasonable time for changing over at least to something frozen for N/interior Mass.? Edit: According to the Euro. Sent from my VS980 4G Yes...maybe a tad after 1am on euro, more like 2-3am there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Weenies excited over .05 snow qpf on back end makes me giggle MPM is only spot that looks truly interesting in sne to me, greenfield Chris's longitude and im pulling for his temps to really drop later in eve as qPF cranks also is as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 850 temps ticked south by maybe 15 miles or so. Still a decent warm tongue aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Euro was a bit better too with precip after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Yes...maybe a tad after 1am on euro, more like 2-3am there. Seems like the storm either slowed or the cold drain slowed , unless 2-3 is when snow start'd in N mass and below freezin temps are there a few hrs earlier (midnite) ior maybe i was just off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Weenies excited over .05 snow qpf on back end makes me giggle MPM is only spot that looks truly interesting in sne to me, greenfield Chris's longitude and im pulling for his temps to really drop later in eve as qPF cranks also is as well. N MA right over through ORH county and NE MA could easily pick up 1-2 inches early tomorrow....probably a nowcast thing. But Euro has been showing this most runs. Looked a buit better at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.