dendrite Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 That is one hell of a warm nose on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I will be grabbing pics etc. when we get into the worst conditions tonight. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42791-march-general-modelpattern-discussion-thread/page-14#entry2830100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 That is one hell of a warm nose on the NAM. Keeps getting worse for the fence sitters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 That is one hell of a warm nose on the NAM. Yeah gets the 10C 850 mb temperature contour to POU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Keeps getting worse for the fence sittersthe fence is well to my north. Early dismissals possibly FTL today. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Not expecting much here. Maybe a light coating that helps freeze the car shut solid. Should be a miserable day tomorrow either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 the fence is well to my north. Early dismissals possibly FTL today. We'll see. Looks like the HRRR is trying to show the bright banding on the simulated reflectivity. Aligns along the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Yeah gets the 10C 850 mb temperature contour to POU. 0C at 700 mb practically scrapes PSM on that run. Very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 0C at 700 mb practically scrapes PSM on that run. Very warm. The scalping from sleet tonight may be prolific in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Bingham Maine FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 And confidence is proportional to snow totals. The more snow in the forecast the better I feel about it, the less snow in the forecast the more likely we bust. I don't know why we bother blending in anything with the Euro anymore. epic fail for the GFS. A miserable morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The scalping from sleet tonight may be prolific in spots.i'm starting to worry more about a period of ZR here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 epic fail for the GFS. A miserable morning. GFS is really untrustworthy. Haven't followed but I'm going to bet the RGEM/Euro combo would have been much closer to the truth than the GFS. Worked well down here most times this year. May put a hold on the ski trip, nothing like skiing at 40 mph into wind drive ice pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 i'm starting to worry more about a period of ZR here. You might be ripe for that between about 21-03z...though it gets awfully cold quickly around 03z so its probably going to sleet pretty quick during that time. Might get a 30-31 icing scenario for a time before that. Low level cold is the one thing that generally tends to be under-modeled though, so I could see a scenario where some icing gets a lot further south than what models had...it will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 i'm starting to worry more about a period of ZR here. The 12z euro had ZR for you yesterday based on a crude look on thicknesses and temps. It did look like IP would be more of an overall threat...but if that warm tongue is stronger than first thought yesterday..maybe those areas like Chris mentioned might have an issue. I do think the temps below 925 will crash pretty hard...but maybe a narrow area has ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I think the important thing to note is temps/dews across and along the international border. I just wrote about it in my AFD update. They're both dropping as the cold front presses south. Not just the Champlain Valley, but the Northeast Kingdom too. We'll see how far this can ooze south today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I think the important thing to note is temps/dews across and along the international border. I just wrote about it in my AFD update. They're both dropping as the cold front presses south. Not just the Champlain Valley, but the Northeast Kingdom too. We'll see how far this can ooze south today. Further west....PEO (Penn Yan) +SN 1/4 mi, ROC, BUF, DSW all +SN 1/4 mile and ITH 34F and -RA....I miss the Ithaca snow hole. Looks like it might stay static too for a while before things finalyl crash SE a bit. I may have taken a gorge plunge if I was there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Further west....PEO (Penn Yan) +SN 1/4 mi, ROC, BUF, DSW all +SN 1/4 mile and ITH 34F and -RA....I miss the Ithaca snow hole. Looks like it might stay static too for a while before things finalyl crash SE a bit. I may have taken a gorge plunge if I was there today. Vintage ITH. They have a north wind too. What a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 i just put in the obs thread that we are now getting light to occassionally mod snow. what happened? I thought the warm nose was poking north not dropping south. actually on one of the radars you can see the r/s snow line just dropped s and e of CON rather quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 i just put in the obs thread that we are now getting light to occassionally mod snow. what happened? I thought the warm nose was poking north not dropping south. actually on one of the radars you can see the r/s snow line just dropped s and e of CON rather quickly little burst of strong lift. Won't last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 little burst of strong lift. Won't last long. yup, I can see the heavier echoes on the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 i just put in the obs thread that we are now getting light to occassionally mod snow. what happened? I thought the warm nose was poking north not dropping south. actually on one of the radars you can see the r/s snow line just dropped s and e of CON rather quickly Wasn't the true warm nose. You had leftover warmth in the mid levels this morning that is going to get erased by stronger lift. The warm nose is evident now on radar edging into southern VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 WINDSWILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS FROM 25 - 35MPH...PEAKING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ANDOVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN THECHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS WILL CREATE NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH AWHITEOUT EXPECTED AT TIMES. THINKING WE FALL JUST SHORT OFBLIZZARD CRITERIA (3 HOURS OF 35+ MPH WIND GUSTS AND 1/4 MILEVISIBILITY). SNOW MAY HANG ON LONGEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEYTHURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE AND BTV4WRF FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW 0.25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS FROM 25 - 35 MPH...PEAKING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS WILL CREATE NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH A WHITEOUT EXPECTED AT TIMES. THINKING WE FALL JUST SHORT OF BLIZZARD CRITERIA (3 HOURS OF 35+ MPH WIND GUSTS AND 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY). SNOW MAY HANG ON LONGEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE AND BTV4 WRF FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW 0.25. The winds have picked up here in the lower Champlain Valley. Steady at 15, gusts to 25. 31.5F, visibility less than 500 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Euro has decent wrap around, NW Mass over by MPM is an interesting spot tonight. lol at the dot of 36+ in Baxter Park. Not thrilled with my forecast of 18-24" looking more like 10" on that map, though everything is so close together in S.Franklin that inch-per-mile gradients might be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 lol at the dot of 36+ in Baxter Park. Not thrilled with my forecast of 18-24" looking more like 10" on that map, though everything is so close together in S.Franklin that inch-per-mile gradients might be possible. I mean a 6-10 inch gradient across the southern Franklin zone split wouldn't be crazy at this point. The northern part of that split may flirt with 20" while the southern part struggles with mixing at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 What a massive dump the GFS took on itself on the 12z run yesterday. I sided with the euro like 70/30 and still may be off with rain and thermal profiles for various cities over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 What a massive dump the GFS took on itself on the 12z run yesterday. I sided with the euro like 70/30 and still may be off with rain and thermal profiles for various cities over New England. I know unusable is tossed around in jest a lot, but in reality by blending it in you significant degrade the forecast. I'm going to burn on that for PWM today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I know unusable is tossed around in jest a lot, but in reality by blending it in you significant degrade the forecast. I'm going to burn on that for PWM today. Ironically the 12z/10 GFS will do a better job than the euro at 12z/10 yet the euro as usual slides in to steal the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Ironically the 12z/10 GFS will do a better job than the euro at 12z/10 yet the euro as usual slides in to steal the show. And that's the real problem. In crunch time, the NAM/GFS just aren't reliable enough to trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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