BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Going to need 9.5" which was starting to look likely but now naso much. Yeah, but a lot of the times these events become now casting. I can't tell you how many times in my region that the storm goes 50+ miles more north then predicted/modeled even if there is consensus. You guys should get close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 This storm should break your all time snowfall record? Currently progged, it will fall just short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I hope no one expected those craziest nam runs to verify at face value. A classic blast from the past (2007-08). A 5-10" storm still a good bet, perhaps a bit less than it as looking like tho morning but way more than at any time the previous week before yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Hi res NMM isn't as bad as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Hi res NMM isn't as bad as the NAM you can always count on the weenie NMM to keep hope alive.... DAB for Geos, 1' for milliman. RAP/RUC drier/south each run tells the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I hope no one expected those craziest nam runs to verify at face value. A classic blast from the past (2007-08). A 5-10" storm still a good bet, perhaps a bit less than it as looking like tho morning but way more than at any time the previous week before yesterday. Goofy TV mets around here were showing those maps. You would think that one would lose credibility, but what do I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I hope no one expected those craziest nam runs to verify at face value. A classic blast from the past (2007-08). A 5-10" storm still a good bet, perhaps a bit less than it as looking like tho morning but way more than at any time the previous week before yesterday. What ... you didn't believe the 20-30" runs ... those runs had to be a lock ... come on just look at our climo ... these 4-8" storms are just a waste of time ... dime a dozen in these parts ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'd be very careful accepting the 12z runs at face value. Given the banding/potential thunder involved, I wouldn't be surprised to see some areas overperform. Given the cobb output off the NAM for PIA (over 4 inches in 2 hours), thunder is the only way I'm seeing that. 140312/0700Z 19 01020KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.177 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68 87| 0| 13140312/0800Z 20 01019KT 32.3F SNOW 8:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.152 8:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83 92| 0| 8140312/0900Z 21 01019KT 32.1F SNOW 14:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119 11:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.95 100| 0| 0140312/1000Z 22 02019KT 30.8F SNOW 18:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.142 13:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.09 100| 0| 0140312/1100Z 23 01018KT 29.0F SNOW 13:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083 13:1| 6.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.17 100| 0| 0140312/1200Z 24 01019KT 27.6F SNOW 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 13:1| 6.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.17 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Gonna add an inch to my original call and go 3-5" for LAF. Changeover time and how much precip is left obviously will dictate amounts and a changeover on the faster side could mean slightly higher totals. Will be interesting to see what if any effects the recent warm temps will have on accumulation, especially on paved surfaces. Falling temps, decent rates and the bulk of the snow coming overnight/morning would argue against that being much of an issue but we'll see. I think the rural areas around here have a good chance at experiencing blizzard conditions but it will be tougher to do in LAF proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 03/11/2014 00Z NAM will go down as one of the all-time classic YYZ dream runs. Had to: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 To make matters worse we're shooting into the 50's now way above forecast. My gut tells me this is gonna be a rough 24 hours for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 yep, 53 on the bank clock, torching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Lol SREF mean up to 15" for DTW... That usually runs one run behind of any big changes on the NAM, so I expect that will probably be cut in half next time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 WAA always overachieves.it's funny because yesterday was supposed to be solid 50's but we barely mustered 47. Today was supposed to be 43 and we might bust that by 10° or more. One of those "sneaky warm" days DTX talks about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 To make matters worse we're shooting into the 50's now way above forecast. My gut tells me this is gonna be a rough 24 hours for snow lovers. WAA always overachieves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 not that it matters for anything other than maybe warm surface temps cutting down on totals but RAP is again way too cold with surface temps over N. IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I did a preliminary search of LAF records to see how many days there have been with a high temp of 60+ and at least 3" of snow the following day. So far I have gone back to 2000 and found exactly zero such days. May check earlier years later today but want to wait and see if we actually make it to 60 so I'm not doing all this for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Atta boy Ricky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1234 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 DISCUSSION 1234 PM CDT WINTER STORM UPDATE... CONTINUING TO ASSESS 12Z MODEL DATA FOR IMPENDING WINTER STORM. SURFACE OBSERVATION ANALYSIS SHOWS 996 MB LOW IN CENTRAL KS ROUGHLY BETWEEN SLN AND HUT...NORTH OF LATEST RUN OF RAP MODEL. TRENDS SO FAR SUPPORT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW IN GOING FORECAST AND HAVENT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THIS YET...WITH ONLY TWEAKS TO LATE AFTERNOON POPS AS BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND RAIN COMMENCES IN FAR NORTHERN CWA. RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY FLIP OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. OF BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE SNOW LATE TONIGHT IS THE BAND OF VERY STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN OVERLAID BY NEGATIVE EPV...AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF 50-100 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS AND RATES OF 2 INCHES PLUS PER HOUR WHEREVER THIS SETS UP. KEEPING TOTALS IN CHECK WILL BE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WITH MIDLEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OPEN...SO WOULD ONLY EXPECT A FEW HOUR PERIOD WITH THE REALLY HEAVY RATES IN ANY GIVEN AREA. NONETHELESS...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TOTALS TO OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE 8 INCHES IN WARNING AREA...WITH THIS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG AND A BIT EAST OF I-55 CORRIDOR. LIKELY BECAUSE OF BANDING POTENTIAL...HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SHOWING A VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP IN NORTHERN CWA...AND THINK THIS IS OVERDONE...BUT THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT IN SNOW AMOUNTS ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH GOING FORECAST. FARTHER SOUTH IN WATCH AREA...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER HOW FAST CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AFTER CHANGEOVER...SO WILL MAKE A DECISION ON HEADLINE FOR SOUTHEAST CWA WITH AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. FINALLY...WINDS REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN AS WELL LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 40+ MPH. THIS WILL EXACERBATE IMPACTS TO WEDS AM COMMUTE EVEN AS SNOW WINDS DOWN. RC/JEE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I did a preliminary search of LAF records to see how many days there have been with a high temp of 60+ and at least 3" of snow the following day. So far I have gone back to 2000 and found exactly zero such days. May check earlier years later today but want to wait and see if we actually make it to 60 so I'm not doing all this for nothing. Heck, I,ll bet there hasn't been many, if any, times it's happened with 55° the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Atta boy Ricky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1234 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 DISCUSSION 1234 PM CDT WINTER STORM UPDATE... CONTINUING TO ASSESS 12Z MODEL DATA FOR IMPENDING WINTER STORM. SURFACE OBSERVATION ANALYSIS SHOWS 996 MB LOW IN CENTRAL KS ROUGHLY BETWEEN SLN AND HUT...NORTH OF LATEST RUN OF RAP MODEL. TRENDS SO FAR SUPPORT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW IN GOING FORECAST AND HAVENT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THIS YET...WITH ONLY TWEAKS TO LATE AFTERNOON POPS AS BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND RAIN COMMENCES IN FAR NORTHERN CWA. RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY FLIP OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. OF BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE SNOW LATE TONIGHT IS THE BAND OF VERY STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN OVERLAID BY NEGATIVE EPV...AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF 50-100 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS AND RATES OF 2 INCHES PLUS PER HOUR WHEREVER THIS SETS UP. KEEPING TOTALS IN CHECK WILL BE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WITH MIDLEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OPEN...SO WOULD ONLY EXPECT A FEW HOUR PERIOD WITH THE REALLY HEAVY RATES IN ANY GIVEN AREA. NONETHELESS...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TOTALS TO OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE 8 INCHES IN WARNING AREA...WITH THIS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG AND A BIT EAST OF I-55 CORRIDOR. LIKELY BECAUSE OF BANDING POTENTIAL...HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SHOWING A VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP IN NORTHERN CWA...AND THINK THIS IS OVERDONE... To me, these guys have done a helluva job this winter. Given model variability and inconsistencies many of their calls and discussions have taken into account a number of other complex factors. Kudos! It's more then looking at three models and choosing the compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 To me, these guys have done a helluva job this winter. Given model variability and inconsistencies many of their calls and discussions have taken into account a number of other complex factors. Kudos! It's more then looking at three models and choosing the compromise. They've had a solid winter for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like the LAF/TOL call is holding strong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro to the rescue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 yep, 53 on the bank clock, torching More juice and volatility. March snows depend on those factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 03/11/2014 00Z NAM will go down as one of the all-time classic YYZ dream runs. Had to: Lol. Epic. Actually had a bit of sun in Racine. Still mild out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 They've had a solid winter for sure What's your thought on lake enhancement as the storm deepens across Chicago, seems like a possibility that will add to the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Nice write up by Ricky. Nice to have him as a regular here too. Still seems weird seeing the warning in portion of LOT as the only warning so far. I'm assuming offices are waiting for the afternoon package to make any changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 What's your thought on lake enhancement as the storm deepens across Chicago, seems like a possibility that will add to the totals. zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Heck, I,ll bet there hasn't been many, if any, times it's happened with 55° the day before. Going to have to correct my original post. I found a case from March 2008 where we had a high of 60 on the 3rd and about 5" of snow on the 4th. LAF airport doesn't have snow measurements for these years so I'm having to use other sources to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro coming in juiced.. Nice hit for S/E Mi.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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