KeenerWx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Going to ride a thin line here. Alas, that has been the story for many this winter. We'll see if the luck continues. I'm liking 3-7" here, with the best snow just north. Need 4.4" to be 50" above average, and 6.4" to crack at 3x normal snowfall. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Environment Canada issues small winter storm watch for the 5 counties with shorelines on Lake Erie. Calling for fzra and up to 6" of wet snow Way too conservative as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 6z RGEM may have nudged north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 One more bump south on the 12z NAM and that should do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Hopefully the Chicago area folks took a look at the 3z SREF before they come tumbling downward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 8z RAP appears to have initialized too far south and too deep with the sfc low. 6z GFS has a better handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 360 FXUS10 KWNH 110649 PMDHMD MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 248 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014 VALID MAR 11/0000 UTC THRU MAR 14/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ============================================== 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES ============================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. ============================================== .DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE STORM AFFECTING THE EASTERN U.S PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WEATHER HAZARDS RANGING FROM WIND/FIRE WEATHER IN THE PLAINS TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. BEGINNING WITH THE 12Z GFS...MODELS BEGAN TRENDING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM...SHIFTING THE SURFACE LOW TRACK NORTH AND NORTHWEST BY A FEW TENS OF MILES COMPARED TO THE POSITION THAT THE ECMWF HAD BEEN LOCKED ONTO FOR SEVERAL RUNS. THE SHIFT IS MOST NOTICEABLE AND MEANINGFUL BEGINNING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LIFE THE STORM OVER NEW ENGLAND. AGAIN...THE CHANGE IS RATHER SMALL...BUT IS NOW UNANIMOUS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHOSE SOLUTIONS FROM THE 00Z CYCLE ARE NEARLY IN SYNC WITH ONE ANOTHER. THE UKMET TRACK IS JUST VERY SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH INITIALLY AND FARTHER INLAND OVER NEW ENGLAND...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS TO EXCLUDE IT FROM A BLENDED PREFERENCE. THE NAM WAS PROVIDED A MORE EXAGGERATED NORTHWARD SHIFT...ALTHOUGH IT WAS CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL TREND. WE BELIEVE THE NAM CAN BE DISCOUNTED BASED ON ITS UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SO MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS. THIS HAS BEEN A COMMON ERROR IN THE NAM THIS WINTER. THE NAM MOVES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS VERY EARLY IN THE FORECAST...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 That's a substantial shift north for the Euro in this range. Have to think for the LOT CWA given the shifts north in all the guidance that the existing watch will be converted to a warning and warnings also hoisted for the Chicago area except maybe the far north and northwest (Wisconsin border counties). Even if amounts are forecast to be more high end advisory to lower end warning criteria-6" in 12 hours is the strict criteria- my guess is that weight will be given to the very strong winds developing, snow covered roads and snow still falling during the Weds am commute which will make for terrible travel conditions. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 SREF mean for DTW is 13.1" this run. Big spread though from a bit over an inch to crazy stuff over 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Way too conservative as usual. Their forecast is probably based on the 0z RGEM, lol. Lets see how the models play out through today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 6z gfs way better for ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 6z gfs way better for ORD Call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 GFS isn't as nutso as the NAM but still paints widespread 9 to 11 inches south of I-69 in lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Only 5 SREF members were below 10" at TOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Only 5 SREF members were below 10" at TOLLooking like a classic major snowstorm for our area. DTX's snow forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Hopefully the Chicago area folks took a look at the 3z SREF before they come tumbling downward. Call? I'll go relatively bullish and say 7", which falls approx. halfway between the inflated SREF mean and the floor of ~3". GFS is coming on board and ratios should be 11-12:1 or so during max. LOT harping on short duration keeping amounts in check which is a great point. I'm just relieved not to be worrying about mixing...the 0z NAM was obviously not gonna work out but 6-7" gets us to within sniffing distance of the record. Bonus lol @ the euro...tough winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Only 5 SREF members were below 10" at TOL I think you mean 5 below 5" with 8 below 10" at TOL. The TOL Mean is 10.14". At least that is what I am seeing on the 3Z Run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 LOL Howell's SREF mean is 15.35" ... :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I think you mean 5 below 5" with 8 below 10" at TOL. The TOL Mean is 10.14". At least that is what I am seeing on the 3Z Run. I think you mean 5 below 5" with 8 below 10" at TOL. The TOL Mean is 10.14". At least that is what I am seeing on the 3Z Run. Lol yep, that's what I get for posting right after waking up. Anyways the NMM/ARW both came south on their 6z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looking reasonably good for Toronto. Thinking 6" might be a good second call for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 With low deepening as it passes into southern Ohio i wouldn't be surprised to see some of us who have to deal with the warm 850's at the onset in North Central IN West Central Ohio overachieve our current 2-4, 3-5 forecast totals with some back side bands. I'll call 5 inches with an inch of sleet and .4 of rain IMBY. Messy messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 TWC has me at 7-13" not that it means any thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Pretty encouraging to see just 3 SREF members below the 10" mark for YYZ. Heavy clustering between 10-30" with a mean of 18.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Didn't see anyone post about it, but nice to see LOT went with a warning. 4-9" storm total currently in my grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I have a gut feeling DTW will get a foot of snow. Its time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Anyone have last night's euro QPF map to post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 As of 12z, the sfc low is down to 995mb northeast of HLC, along or just south of the KS/NE border. 9z RUC is now too far south. 6z GFS actually not far off, just weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Extreme gradient right over this area on 06z NAM. Gonna keep riding the 2-4" call, seems pretty solid. Was hoping for a late season heavy event, but it's not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It's RIP time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Nice Snow, mainly before 5pm. Temperature falling to around 26 by 9am. Blustery, with a north wind 18 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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