snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Lol...9z SREF mean at YYZ = 20". Model needs a time machine and a prescription of prozac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Detroit still left waiting for that elusive 12" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM may never live this cluster**** down. The NAM should be discontinued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM may never live this cluster**** down.It started the season terrible, and it's ending it in even worse fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The NAM should be discontinued. We say that every event. This time it seems to ring more true. In two runs we've gone from near 1.75" of QPF to as of right now what looks like less than 1/2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 We say that every event. This time it seems to ring more true. In two runs we've gone from near 1.75" of QPF to as of right now what looks like less than 1/2". Nam looks to be around 0.60" of QPF. Right in line with the 0z Euro, lol. 4-6" good call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Should have stuck with my 2-4" call. Fell for the okie-doke. Hopefully the GFS doesn't do the same thing. Never ever ever do low tracks that far south do us good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Final call 4.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'm think 3-4 inches for here..... It will be torched off in a few days anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Let's not forget the 6z GFS showed 6 inches for this area. So I'm not going all storm cancel just yet. And actually won't go storm cancel until tomorrow morning if I don't see a good amount of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The NAM should be discontinued. NAM was 80-100 miles east of every other model until 12 hrs out a few weeks ago when L tracked over MSN then snapped back to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM is a garbage model...especially when it's an outlier. Such drastic differences between runs, only 12 hours apart. 0z NAM vs 12z NAM total QPF thru 0z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Nam looks to be around 0.60" of QPF. Right in line with the 0z Euro, lol. 4-6" good call? It's less. The 1/2" line cuts through the city. Areas up where you're at are more like 0.4" Funny thing is the Feb 5 event followed a similar narrative. NAM went big about 30 hours out only to come back to reality a run or two later. Then, in the end, the bigger run 30 hours out ended up being what actually occurred. I got a 7-11" call that seems massively inflated right now. Might have to cut it back substantially but I'll wait to see what the other models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM is a garbage model...especially when it's an outlier. Such drastic differences between runs, only 12 hours apart. 0z NAM vs 12z NAM total QPF thru 0z Thursday. 3:11 0z NAM QPF 48.gif 3:11 12z NAM QPF 36.gif Wow, world of difference here. This will be interesting to watch evolve today/tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It's less. The 1/2" line cuts through the city. Areas up where you're at are more like 0.4" Funny thing is the Feb 5 event followed a similar narrative. NAM went big about 30 hours out only to come back to reality a run or two later. Then, in the end, the bigger run 30 hours out ended up being what actually occurred. I got a 7-11" call that seems massively inflated right now. Might have to cut it back substantially but I'll wait to see what the other models say. Interesting point. The set up with the Feb 5 system is also quite similar to this one, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Last four runs of the SREF mean snowfall totals for IKK. Almost as reliable as the NAM. 3/10 15z: 3.5" 3/10 21z: 4.4" 3/11 3z: 8.3" 3/11 9z: 10.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It's less. The 1/2" line cuts through the city. Areas up where you're at are more like 0.4" Funny thing is the Feb 5 event followed a similar narrative. NAM went big about 30 hours out only to come back to reality a run or two later. Then, in the end, the bigger run 30 hours out ended up being what actually occurred. I got a 7-11" call that seems massively inflated right now. Might have to cut it back substantially but I'll wait to see what the other models say. Wow, quite the cutback. That's unheard of within a 24-36 period as far as I know. If you analyze just the precip charts above you can see how much it shifted SE in just one run. Its crazy! How is current OBS looking compared to what the models showed? We saw a perfect deformation band set up just north of the 401 with that storm. Hopefully parameters are supportive again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 On to the GFS..... As of right now I'm 25 miles away from Zippo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It's less. The 1/2" line cuts through the city. Areas up where you're at are more like 0.4" Funny thing is the Feb 5 event followed a similar narrative. NAM went big about 30 hours out only to come back to reality a run or two later. Then, in the end, the bigger run 30 hours out ended up being what actually occurred. I got a 7-11" call that seems massively inflated right now. Might have to cut it back substantially but I'll wait to see what the other models say. I have noticed that a lately with these systems too. I like to look at the 500MB Vort maps. There are distinct changes that explain the various affects. We just need to wait and see how these Vorts actually interact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'll mostly stick with 4-7" locally to 8" for the Chicago metro. The far north and northwest areas will likely be lower than that but I don't think the cutoff will be as sharp as what the 12z NAM showed. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Interesting little blurb from DVN. FXUS63 KDVN 111443AFDDVNAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL943 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014THE NEXT 30 HOURS WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING. INITIAL DATA ISPOINTING TO THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN A NON-LINEAR FASHION WHICHMEANS THE MODELS WILL BE PLAYING CATCH UP. THUS A CAREFULANALYSIS/REVIEW WILL BE REQUIRED IN CREATING A FORECAST.IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM...THE OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITHRAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 On to the GFS..... As of right now I'm 25 miles away from Zippo. Yet oddly the 9Z SREF was our best run yet with a large cluster around 15" ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The ranges at this range are amazing for here. 5-21" on the SREF plumes and about 2-14" on the IA meteogram. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 And diving the low goes into OK. Still 996mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Last four runs of the SREF mean snowfall totals for IKK. Almost as reliable as the NAM. 3/10 15z: 3.5" 3/10 21z: 4.4" 3/11 3z: 8.3" 3/11 9z: 10.2" I was about to post that. The 9z lowest number is 6.81". Nice cluster between that and 12.89". No doubt it will change, but I hope not. At least it is moving in the right direction. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Interesting little blurb from DVN. FXUS63 KDVN 111443 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 943 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 THE NEXT 30 HOURS WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING. INITIAL DATA IS POINTING TO THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN A NON-LINEAR FASHION WHICH MEANS THE MODELS WILL BE PLAYING CATCH UP. THUS A CAREFUL ANALYSIS/REVIEW WILL BE REQUIRED IN CREATING A FORECAST. IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM...THE OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. classic DVN busting out the non-linear last grasp weenie card Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Grasping at straws but the 12Z NAM initialized about 3mb shallower (998mb) and a touch east of the 12Z surface analysis (995mb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 classic DVN busting out the non-linear last grasp weenie card Pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 classic DVN busting out the non-linear last grasp weenie card Surprisingly that wasn't a Nichols AFD special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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