snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Wind direction would seem to indicate the actual sfc low is much further north than what's being depicted by the isobars. Kind of odd. There's not always a perfect relationship but the displacement is usually less than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro went a bit north of previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Wind direction would seem to indicate the actual sfc low is much further north than what's being depicted by the isobars. Kind of odd. There's not always a perfect relationship but the displacement is usually less than this. So much straw grasping xD Is interesting though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Wind direction would seem to indicate the actual sfc low is much further north than what's being depicted by the isobars. Kind of odd. There's not always a perfect relationship but the displacement is usually less than this. I noticed the same thing earlier. The wind field is kinda chaotic but the lowest pressures were solidly in Kansas last time I checked an hour or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 12z NSSL WRF Haha... That gives Detroit like 8 inches and 1 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Haha... That gives Detroit like 8 inches and 1 for me. lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 I can never tell if Joe is riding his DAB call or re-thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Wind direction would seem to indicate the actual sfc low is much further north than what's being depicted by the isobars. Kind of odd. There's not always a perfect relationship but the displacement is usually less than this. Would be different if this was some strong wave ejecting NE and the low would ride that front but as we know, that is not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I was lucky enough to be in the bullseye feb 5th, but almost everyone of these storms has a killer deformation zone once the L passes. So whoever sits under that should be golden. Temps will be plummeting and ratios rising too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Would be different if this was some strong wave ejecting NE and the low would ride that front but as we know, that is not the case. yeah, it would be a rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I would fall the sword and take a goose egg to see DTW (and Josh via geographic location) pull in 10". Silver lining Jonger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 16z HRRR and still snowing after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Wind direction would seem to indicate the actual sfc low is much further north than what's being depicted by the isobars. Kind of odd. There's not always a perfect relationship but the displacement is usually less than this. And to help you straw graspers more...The 996mb contour is off, as SFC OBS have 996mb pressure on north up to near I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I noticed the same thing earlier. The wind field is kinda chaotic but the lowest pressures were solidly in Kansas last time I checked an hour or two ago. Like hm8 said this is straw grasping. Lowest pressure I can find is definitely more in s. KS around Wichita (996mb at Arkansas City) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 most guidance seems to keep the weenie band from downtown south...could see 1-2" IMBY and 5-6" at the office just a few miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Totally forgot to make a call. I'll go 4.2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Thinking I'll end up with around 6" of cement out of this. Earlier phase and less rain to start and this could have been a big one. Better than nothing. Sounds pretty good. Im actually in Warsaw right now through Thursday so I guess its better than what I would get at home. Gonna make for some difficult travels in the morning though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 70% chance of 12+ across Niagara Frontier to Rochester. First time I've seen that for WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 70% chance at 8+ for Detriot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 those are more bullish than i would have thought for Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 those are more bullish than i would have thought for Chicago For YYZ as well. WPC must be giving SREF suite at least some weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 70% chance at 8+ for Detriot Manages to sneak in YYZ too. Seems a bit generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Manages to sneak in YYZ too. Seems a bit generous. RGEM actually cut amounts down on its latest run. Its been very inconsistent as well. I suspect EC may do the same? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 most guidance seems to keep the weenie band from downtown south...could see 1-2" IMBY and 5-6" at the office just a few miles south I like my position in this event for the highest totals in Chicagoland, but still thinking we will stay under 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It might only be 25miles or less but the 18z RAP is a bit NW/wetter here with nearly .50" liquid. The 15z run out to 18hrs had .20-30" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 RGEM actually cut amounts down on its latest run. Its been very inconsistent as well. I suspect EC may do the same? lol 4" gels even with the dry RGEM. I suspect they'll stand pat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I like my position in this event for the highest totals in Chicagoland, but still thinking we will stay under 4 inches. yeah you look as good as anyone for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 SREF mean nearly halved again to ~6" at ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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