michsnowfreak Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I have a gut feeling DTW will get a foot of snow. Its time If we do, talk about breaking the previously untouchable 1880-81 season snowfall record with a bang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 As of 12z, the sfc low is down to 995mb northeast of HLC, along or just south of the KS/NE border. Any idea yet which model the current low has most resembled so far? Or is it still, to use an election night term, too early to call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWOBLU Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Hey Thundersnow do you have a prediction for our area ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 If the big dog solution pans out (meaning the 12-24" of snow and blizzard conditions), can this storm be dedicated to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 If the big dog solution pans out (meaning the 12-24" of snow and blizzard conditions), can this storm be dedicated to me? Would you like us to call it the "Powerball Jackpot Storm" or is that copywritten by the lottery? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 If the big dog solution pans out (meaning the 12-24" of snow and blizzard conditions), can this storm be dedicated to me? sure why not lol. DTX of course still going the conservative 6+ possible route...but the model qpf seems to be narrowing in on a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 If we do, talk about breaking the previously untouchable 1880-81 season snowfall record with a bang! Not only that, but it'll officially be Detroit's biggest snowstorm in 40 years (if we surpass 12.2"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Would you like us to call it the "Powerball Jackpot Storm" or is that copywritten by the lottery? Lol That'll work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like I will be on the fringe of this thing now. Only 1-3" in the grid here and < 2" in Racine where I work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'm on a phone, but can someone tell me what curent observations are like compared to what the models showed? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Local media going with 3-6" here. No model shows less than 6" verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Not only that, but it'll officially be Detroit's biggest snowstorm in 40 years (if we surpass 12.2"). whoa, i didn't know it has been that bad there...ouch Anyways, GFS looks like it has a good handle...NAM way out to lunch. Euro playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Hello Marmaduke !!! King of the big dogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 9z RUC is now too far south. doubt the RUC ends up too far south in the end...9z showed ~4" across all of the area with 1"+ per hour rates still going. RAP significantly less impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 doubt the RUC ends up too far south in the end...9z showed ~4" across all of the area with 1"+ per hour rates still going. RAP significantly less impressive. My bad actually meant the RAP. That back up RUC looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 weenie NMM with a tight gradient across LOT from .25" far NW to 1"+ city south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 whoa, i didn't know it has been that bad there...ouch Anyways, GFS looks like it has a good handle...NAM way out to lunch. Euro playing catch up. Yep. Detroit according to some may very well run laps around most other major climo sites when it comes to winter weather overall, but it has to be the worst place for big dogs (even worse than Toronto).And no, my post should not be taken as a green light to pull out Detroit's other weather stats nor for a climo debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'm very worried to trust the GFS. It seems to be doing pretty well, given the current state of the atmosphere, but after its numerous fails this winter and last minute changes... my gut tells me to buy a solution closer to what the GEM is selling (even though it isn't the solution I would "prefer") as the GEM has had an excellent track record this winter albeit lately not as good as it had been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 This is why I hate all the runs. Talking those 12-24" runs. Several people who just days ago would have been happy to just get 2-4" are going to be pissed to ONLY get 4-8". model runs turn decent storms into 'if only' storms (in peoples heads that is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 GFS never had a handle on this as the NAM didn't. They are both migrating to a happy medium - the GFS stronger and the NAM weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 RAP come back to earth yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 This forecast discussion is the best for any synoptic system that I've ever read I think.(In my area) A SURFACE LOW WILL REACH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAYMORNING...BEFORE CROSSING CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY AND REACHING NYCBY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BYTHURSDAY MORNING. ALOFT...THE PACIFIC VORTICITY MAXIMA AND THENORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FULLY PHASE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEMREACHES OUR LONGITUDE...WHICH IS NOTABLY FASTER IN PHASING THANMODEL GUIDANCE FROM SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND EXPLAINS THE DEEPER/FARTHERNORTH TREND SEEN IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THE PHASING STREAMS AND AMPLEMOISTURE WILL PRODUCE AN INCREDIBLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM.FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL RAPIDLYINCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVELTROUGH PHASES AND DEEPENS...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM AGEOSTROPHICFLOW ADJUSTMENTS. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCEWILL DEVELOP WITHIN A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE FORMED BY THE RIGHTENTRANCE REGION OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER QUEBEC...AND A120+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILLCOMBINE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT. A 12 HOUR PERIODOF STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL ALSO BE FEATURED DURING THE FIRSTHALF OF THE EVENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE THAN AMPLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH AROUND 4 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR THE 700MB LAYER.USING THESE DATA...THE GARCIA METHOD SUGGESTS AROUND 8 INCHES OFACCUMULATION IN SOME AREAS JUST FROM THE WARM ADVECTION PHASE OF THESTORM.DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE RAPIDLYDEEPENING AS IT PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM MATURES...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL DEFINED TROWALAIRSTREAM AND ASSOCIATED COMMA HEAD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACELOW TRACK. WITHIN THE TROWAL...STRONG DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESISWILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TOPRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLYTAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL GROW COLDENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIODURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELSRISE TO AROUND 7K FEET. THIS WILL LIKELY ADD AT LEAST A FEW INCHESTO TOTALS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. STRONG WINDS WILLCARRY THIS ENHANCEMENT WELL INLAND...PROBABLY AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUTTHE NYS THRUWAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN UPSLOPEENHANCEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUARIDGE AND OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN THE SOUTHERN TIER ANDFINGER LAKES.PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THEEVENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IT WILLLIKELY STILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST PLAIN RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THEWESTERN SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...WITH A NARROW ZONE OF WINTRY MIXTRANSITION ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING/LIVINGSTON/ONTARIO COUNTIES.THIS TRANSITION WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE MORNING...THENACCELERATE INTO PA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TOSNOW. THE CHANGEOVER MAY GO THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZINGRAIN WITH MINOR ICE AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 12-16 INCHES ARE NOW EXPECTED IN MOSTAREAS WITH SOME 18 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF LAKEONTARIO INCLUDING THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENTWILL DEVELOP. IF THE CURRENT PTYPE FORECAST HOLDS...AMOUNTS WILL BECONSIDERABLY LOWER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES MAYREACH OR EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR LOCALLY IN ANY MESOSCALE BANDINGTHAT DEVELOPS. SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONWITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE OR EVENUPRIGHT CONVECTION. SOME MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW AS MUCH AS80J/KG OF CAPE FOR PARCELS ROOTED IN THE 700MB LAYER.NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONAND EVENING PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEARBLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 20 MILES OF THESOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE 20S AND INTO THE TEENS DURINGTHE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFEW SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY DROPTO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY THURSDAY MORNING.ON THURSDAY ANY LEFTOVER WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION SNOW EAST OF LAKEONTARIO IN THE MORNING WILL TAPER OFF. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILLSTILL BE LIKELY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ESPECIALLYDURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THIS MAY ADD A FEW MORE INCHES INSOME SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FRIGID BY MID MARCH STANDARDS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID TEENS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONSAND POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS ON THE HILLS. ITWILL REMAIN QUITE WINDY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ONGOINGESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Buffalo going big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 This is why I hate all the runs. Talking those 12-24" runs. Several people who just days ago would have been happy to just get 2-4" are going to be pissed to ONLY get 4-8". model runs turn decent storms into 'if only' storms (in peoples heads that is). very well said and I agree 100%! Reminds me of most storms in 2007-08. Remember about 4-5 days ago when most punted a storm all together as most runs were literally snowless for most? I am getting excited but want to keep things in check. One things for sure...bye bye for now dirty snowbanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 GFS never had a handle on this as the NAM didn't. They are both migrating to a happy medium - the GFD stronger and the NAM weaker IMO the GFS will take a step back south at 12z, probably between 0z and 6z. It's pretty clear looking at obs/short range guidance that support for a far NW solution is fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 RAP come back to earth yet? and then some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 IMO the GFS will take a step back south at 12z, probably between 0z and 6z. It's pretty clear looking at obs/short range guidance that support for a far NW solution is fading. What's your final call? I think 6.1 sounds like a good number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 and then some It's too far south though. Sfc low still north of I-70 as of 13z near the NE border where the RAP has it near Dodge City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It's too far south though. Sfc low still north of I-70 as of 13z near the NE border where the RAP has it near Dodge City. Are you saying the low pressure is further north currently than what models are showing? Urgh. Why must my area always be on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Are you saying the low pressure is further north currently than what models are showing? Urgh. Why must my area always be on the line. Than the RAP, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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