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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

Well, I don't think you really should discard the ensembles this far out, would only take shuffling around a few features to have some bigger implications for some on here in a more positive direction

Not discard because they are ensembles, but because they are an outlier.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Not discard because they are ensembles, but because they are an outlier.

 

I would be more inline to think vice versa really, If the ensembles continue to be more SE that means more members are trending that way rather then an amped OP run, That is usually a flag

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Boston Bulldog

Boston Bulldog

Posted
Posted

the pattern was lousy, we got lucky. like finding a pearl in an oyster or there are eighty guys on the headboat bailing dogfish and someone snags the one nice big green cod that happened to swim by

 If I remember correctly, there was another major offshore bomb a couple days after the blizzard. The pattern was ripe for coastal systems. One hit, one barely missed.

 

February was very snowy towards the end as well.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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the pattern was lousy, we got lucky. like finding a pearl in an oyster or there are eighty guys on the headboat bailing dogfish and someone snags the one nice big green cod that happened to swim by

Absolutely false. It was a classic setup in every way. The pattern was stormy and w cashed in....then and for the next 6 weeks. We can't help it if your location tends to have the lowest amounts in big coastals.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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After that incredible day outdoors, yesterday, by the time the sun began to set ... so did my heart, for winter. 

 

I'm done. I want out. I want green-up, the smell of lilacs, the anticipation of my garden harvest, and the smell of rain during distant thunder.  I want low pressure that cut inland to ALB ... then tracks along the VT/NH border with Massachusetts so that we get 2" of flooding rain over 10" of snow that holding 2" of water and ....

 

WRONG! 

 

But, as Shakespeare once aptly coined, 'parting is always such sweet sorrow.'  Winter can't last for ever; perhaps it's courtain call on a season that has been by and large, better than statistically average for snow and cold has to be a result that ironically, we really have not had the misfortune of withstanding.   In fairness, we must to consider how fortunate the winter enthusiast's plight has been this winter. As far as I can recall there hasn't been a very large number of these sort of "screwed" results, if at all, and typically a season has its quota of them.  Perhaps we have been sort of collectively caught up in the positive anomaly of this season's seeming capacity to only snow, with a rarefied result of p-type contention ...or dare we say, plain rain!  

 

Having said that, fact of the matter is, if we go back to the thread start it is stated pretty clearly, "Caution though; this doesn't speak to details like who gets affected, nor by exactly what.  THAT is impossible at this juncture."   

 

Yes there is time to wiggle this track around a bit in future runs. Once upon a time, about 1500 nautical miles west of the California coast, a full latitude trough could be observed using conventional technology. Unfortunately, because there is not an armada of ships at sea, whose entire responsibility is to launch sondes, a part of that technology incorporates a suspect method: assimilation.  The correct sampling and subsequent handling of those dynamics cannot be disconnected; with assimilation there is a certain percentage of that. 

 

One thing, however, that really sticks out in my mind when going back over the this system's modeled legacy is just how poorly every guidance type has handling the scale/degree of polar high pressure situated N of this system.  In fact ... I would argue that the system itself has not really be too problematic or varied, run to run, considering typical modeling error for extended time leads. No. I would argue that, as taken from the 00z operational Euro solution, there is almost no high now leading this system. This model was one of the main cheerleaders for bigger high pressure, thus, ...better BL resistance, forcing a colder east solution in time.  The dismantling of polar high over time is the big stick doing the current "virtual" screwing in the runs. 

 

I have to tell you though ... I did a three-hour hike (disk golf) outing yesterday under cerulean skies, mid 50s F air, over white fields of spongy corn snow. Down to just t-shirts with sweatshirts tied off around wastes, as we went, light winds, spring incarnate spectacular!! Adding snow to that environment was the last thing that motivated me.  I know this message falls on deaf ears for a lot of posters in here, who will spend hours in the ides of July wax-philosophy, opining, commiserating, and nostalgic for the colder months. But for me ... thank goodness that a month from now, this winter crap will be over!

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Tornadomachine

Tornadomachine

Posted
Posted

Nails bitten down to nothing waiting for Euro.  Hoping the winds of change bring it SW, but I think even more amped and even more NW is likely.  Hang on to your hats.

 

Devens disk golf is fantastic, they have a great course with a lot of varied terrain.  My fondest memory there is a hole in two on the last hole.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

the pattern was lousy, we got lucky. like finding a pearl in an oyster or there are eighty guys on the headboat bailing dogfish and someone snags the one nice big green cod that happened to swim by

Sorry, but this is absolutely horrific analysis.....we had an absolutely classic NAO block in place for that blizzard.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

When the euro has a lot of QPF, watch out. It tends to be paltry outside 48h then ramps up closer.

 

Yes, GFS is usually last to the qpf party if at all, If its starting to ramp up, Thats a flag to me, Lot of gulf moisture for this one to feed into and the Euro has been on the increase

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Yes, GFS is usually last to the qpf party if at all, If its starting to ramp up, Thats a flag to me, Lot of gulf moisture for this one to feed into and the Euro has been on the increase

You and I are playing with fire at the onset and we're still about 4d out. I'd like to see that 850 0C sitting near the Pike as the system moves in. I don't think I'd mind a subtle southerly tick with the 12z euro in the next hour.
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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Its starting to be a little to close for my liking for me here, But the Inland areas get crushed

 

 

You and I are playing with fire at the onset and we're still about 4d out. I'd like to see that 850 0C sitting near the Pike as the system moves in. I don't think I'd mind a subtle southerly tick with the 12z euro in the next hour.

 

As i noted earlier, We are riding the knife edge right now, And yes, I would like to see an end to this trend and tic SE as well

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Also, I disagree with the whole wasted cold from some posters and now we get this storm. I got news for you, something crossing SE MA (if it were to happen) can easily happen in January. This would easily be snow if this were near the BM. It's not rain because of the time of year. Simply not true.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

You and I are playing with fire at the onset and we're still about 4d out. I'd like to see that 850 0C sitting near the Pike as the system moves in. I don't think I'd mind a subtle southerly tick with the 12z euro in the next hour.

 

You may end up getting what you would like to see, Euro looks a little colder upstairs this run so far

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