WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The Euro has been remarkably consistent with this event. The area of heaviest snow has basically been the same since 12z Friday. Latest runs have somewhat higher amounts. Not surprising the forecasts are being generated with Euro being given a lot of weight. Just look at the forecasted snow totals and the location...matches the euro almost exactly, just toned down a bit. It has been for a few days. But remember it was way north for a while too. The gfs had us in a winter storm first, even if it was an ice storm mainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 There has been a remarkable shift south in the guidance over the past few days, no doubt about that. Which is why some folks who were doing naked high fives and comparing this to PD II while being 96 hrs out, look foolish right now. I'll let you guess what subforum that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I might tone down 10-14 a bit, but should be a good storm. Maybe a real narrow area gets close to that. It's pretty unusual for LWX to go so aggressive on totals at the outset....they typically go with low end warning criteria and then boost as needed. I think this sets up a scenarios where people will complain and criticize LWX if their backyard is not in the heaviest bands and don't reach these numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The entire area is pink. Wow! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's pretty unusual for LWX to go so aggressive on totals at the outset....they typically go with low end warning criteria and then boost as needed. I think this sets up a scenarios where people will complain and criticize LWX if their backyard is not in the heaviest bands and don't reach these numbers. Yeah, it is weird. I am in that 10-14" but I'm expecting 6-10". The general public probably could not even locate where they live on a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 9z SREFs. Surface drops below freezing between 10p and 12a. 850s drop below 0 shortly before 4a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 My only guess as far as the 10-14 NWS is showing is that they are perhaps anticipating some very favorable ratios. In Arlington, my expectations are in the 7-11" range despite that 10-14" stripe on their snowfall forecast maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 SREF plumes are clustered between 6-10" total snow for DCA with a mean of 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 SREF plumes are clustered between 6-10" total snow for DCA with a mean of 8". Can you link me to those. I used to have them but can't find them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 SREF plumes are clustered between 6-10" total snow for DCA with a mean of 8". Similar for IAD...fairly tight range...no wacky 25 in members like you often see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I want to see the Euro hold one more time before I get overly cocky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 SREF Plumes http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140302&RT=09&PRM=Ptype-POP&SID=DCA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gnarly cutoff on the 12z NAM. It's not bad in DC verbatim, but I hope the RGEM/EURO/UKM/GGEM hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 SREF plumes are clustered between 6-10" total snow for DCA with a mean of 8". If SREF is correct we do pretty good at DCA. Even removing the top 2 plumes, the mean is 7.64". I'll take it. But I hope the Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 SREF Plumes http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140302&RT=09&PRM=Ptype-POP&SID=DCA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Thanks. Looks like about a 7.5" mean out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 NAM looks like it still flapping around. teehee...it's gonna be annoying in here for at least an hour and a half now, even after seeing what happened at 0z with the wonky NAM. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12z NAM looks very similar to the 0z NAM last night. 1" line to DC. I'll take the Euro/RGEM/GFS blend over the NAM any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NAM looks like it still flapping around. teehee...it's gonna be annoying in here for at least an hour and a half now, even after seeing what happened at 0z. Ugh.Any model that flops around like the Nam has with this one I don't worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Counting on rates to get good totals. Imby hoping we switch earlier. 630' should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Any model that flops around like the Nam has with this one I don't worry about. That's the key....the flipping. Had 6z been like this it might have been concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Decent look of 12z nam at 12z Mon http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_024_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140302+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think Euro's 12"+ total is a bit outlier now. I remember people talking about Euro being too amped so I wouldn't solely rely on its solution now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think Euro's 12"+ total is a bit outlier now. I remember people talking about Euro being too amped so I wouldn't solely rely on its solution now.I don't think anyone is expecting 12"+, I think 6-12 is a good bet with the current guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think Euro's 12"+ total is a bit outlier now. I remember people talking about Euro being too amped so I wouldn't solely rely on its solution now. I'm not expecting more than 6" for now, but it's in line with the RGEM/GGEM and UKMET QPF-wise. The GFS and NAM are more suppressed with the shield. I feel like we've been down this route before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12z NAM looks very similar to the 0z NAM last night. 1" line to DC. I'll take the Euro/RGEM/GFS blend over the NAM any day. The NAM and Canadian models are "mentioned" in the model/forecast discussions. The forecast for this event is based on a Euro/GFS blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 nam is dreadful. Leesburg gets fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 nam is dreadful. Leesburg gets fringedYou wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 South south south. Ugh. Lots of rain too before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Can't discount the NAM. It may be the furthest south with the heaviest bands but its within its best performing range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 H30 where Richmond is still getting snow and DC is 3 hours past snow makes me sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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