deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 would you say asheville area would be all snow? no, I don't know how much snow Asheville is going to see. I think there will be some wintry weather up there, but trends have been BAD for qpf up in that area today. Some, YES... a lot...NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 well GSP not real bullish on a lot of snow unless they're just playing it safe for now. they do mention some sleet and freezing rain with maybe all snow at the start but doesn't sound like they're to excited about this storm yet. maybe tonight things change but we're getting close to show time. was really hoping this would trend in our favor. thought at least the mtns. would see a good snow and we might yet. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Most of the time it's rain or snow in March not freezing rain? That is in most cases.... But it seems like the NAM is all ZR for the wintry part of the system. I'm not sure much qpf will get this far north and west yet so I probably shouldn't even worry about precip type! lol BF, But in the vast majority of March's or in many winter months, period, you don't have a 1040ish mb high in perfect CAD position. I think this needs to be emphasized as I think the "most of the time it is rain or snow in March" idea, which has been repeated by many here, is irrelevant in this case. Besides, it is "most of the time", not "all of the time". (Examples of major IP/ZR in NC/SC/GA in March: 1948, 1960 (several), 1962, 1971). I bet if you'd look at old wx maps, you'd have to go back many early March's to even find a CAD that is even close to this impressive There is going to be an impressive CAD thanks to an impressive NE high. Whenever there is impressive CAD when it is cold enough, there will often be IP and ZR in the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 CR, I don't think you're looking at it correctly as far as pretty much giving up on this for GA. I'm not saying there will be a winter storm. However, I am saying there MAY be one. Verbatim, the 12Z GFS has 35 for the coldest with 0.78" of rainfall for 3/6-7 at KATL. Also, progged 850's are in the +4 to +6 C range, which is near values most commonly associated with ZR in the area when wedging is strong. 925's are as cold as 0C to 1C and 5 C colder than the 850's, a nice wedge. Also, if the CAD strong enough, the GA CAD areas are often nearly as cold as the NC/SC areas. Also, the CAD continues to trend colder run after run. Bottom line: it is already a very close call in GA verbatim (only misses ZR by 3) and that's not even taking into account a warm bias at two meters. There's a 1040 mb high now being progged. There's still plenty of opportunity for sig. ZR/IP in GA. the key now may be just getting the sig. precip. here. By the way, in RDU the 12Z GFS appears to have IP to at least start Thursday. Did you realize that? Thanks Larry (and guys). I honestly didn't look at the GFS closely enough to see the little bit of sleet on the front end. At this point, if it's not significant, I don't much care. Anyway, I hear what you're saying. It's not that far away, temp-wise, but it seems like it's asking an awful lot at this point in the game. You'd want it down to 30 or so for a major ice storm. And with HP sliding out, that's a big ask. We want it longer and stronger. We'll see. Anyway, I appreciate your thoughts on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 BF, But in the vast majority of March's or in many winter months, period, you don't have a 1040ish mb high in perfect CAD position. I think this needs to be emphasized as I think the "most of the time it is rain or snow in March" idea, which has been repeated by many here, is irrelevant in this case. besides, it is most of the time, not all of the time. (Examples of major IP/ZR in NC/SC/GA in March: 1948, 1960 (several), 1962, 1971). I bet if you'd look at old wx maps, you'd have to go back many early March's to even find a CAD that is even close to this impressive There is going to be an impressive CAD thanks to an impressive NE high. Whenever there is impressive CAD when it is cold enough, there will often be IP and ZR in the picture. Thanks for the info Larry, 18z NAM gives me over .10 of ZR .13 of rain and 18z GFS not a drop! So not looking for anything much at all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I know its hard to call something a trend when it changes run to run and out of its timeframe. 18z nam says too warm for snow in the piedmont maybe zr. But hires nam looks interesting even though its well beyond its wheel house. 925 temps def support zr. But what caught my eye was sub 32 850s creeping back in from the NE with the band of Precip devloping. But who knows how it will actually turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Thanks Larry (and guys). I honestly didn't look at the GFS closely enough to see the little bit of sleet on the front end. At this point, if it's not significant, I don't much care. Anyway, I hear what you're saying. It's not that far away, temp-wise, but it seems like it's asking an awful lot at this point in the game. You'd want it down to 30 or so for a major ice storm. And with HP sliding out, that's a big ask. We want it longer and stronger. We'll see. Anyway, I appreciate your thoughts on it. CR, You're welcome. Actually, as I've mentioned here, ATL has had several major ZR storms with 31 as the coldest. There even was one that was borderline 31/32 (3/25/1971). Granted, even if there is ZR, it could easily not be major. But even a nonmajor ZR is a notable event imo, especially in March. I just don't think an all clear can be given so soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 CR, You're welcome. Actually, as I've mentioned here, ATL has had several major ZR storms with 31 as the coldest. There even was one that was borderline 31/32 (3/25/1971). Granted, even if there is ZR, it could easily not be major. But even a nonmajor ZR is a notable event imo, especially in March. I just don't think an all clear can be given so soon. That is true. A nonmajor ZR is still significant at this point in the season! I remember you saying that about the ZR and 31. In those instances, do you know if it was because the cold air was continuously reinforced? It seems like it would quickly warm to 32/33 if there was a retreating high, with no reinforcement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 this whole setup has high bust potential on it in either direction. I'm running 5 degrees colder than progged. Kchs is at 39 as of 4 pm. Came into work at 35 both on ladson and college park rd. The skies here just have that right look for a winter storm. No basis, rhyme, or reason to it. It sorta feels just right. Yea, it could be a huge bust either way...I fully agree with that, and we are a bit colder than models said today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 A lot of precipitation on latest SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 this whole setup has high bust potential on it in either direction. I'm running 5 degrees colder than progged. Kchs is at 39 as of 4 pm. Came into work at 35 both on ladson and college park rd. The skies here just have that right look for a winter storm. No basis, rhyme, or reason to it. It sorta feels just right. Folks google the accuweather radar and loop it. Sitting here at 33 degrees, haven't checked DPs, but that's a nice slug of moisture moving sw to ne. Even shows some pink back over MS, LA. Storms furry is right it feels and looks like a winter storm is rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 How about the ensembles today? Have they been trending good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Still not feeling this event for most of SC. The upstate is even meh right now. Too many variables to try and forecast currently... but not very excited. With this said.. this could very well end up one of those "suprise" storms that "nobody saw coming!" that you hear about once every decade or so. It's been about that long down this way to actually not know anything is coming and it just happens. EDIT: Every member of the EPS has a trace amount of Wintry weather later tonight or so.. very light but for KCAE better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Folks google the accuweather radar and loop it. Sitting here at 33 degrees, haven't checked DPs, but that's a nice slug of moisture moving sw to ne. Even shows some pink back over MS, LA. Storms furry is right it feels and looks like a winter storm is rolling in. Agree This morning the models showing this slug of moisture staying east mainly offshore. It seems to be heading up the 85 corridor through ATL. Even the Nam hires shows precip around CLT and GSO early in the morning. Strange to think we could have wintry mix of sleet snow in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 How about the ensembles today? Have they been trending good or bad? I think the Euro ENS mean is a subtle improvement with the CAD. The trends have seemingly been good in that regard, but we're running out of time. It seems like we have a pretty solid shot of ZR to start, at least, though snow will be an uphill battle (but not impossible). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 If you look at that precip in GA on a loop, you can see the N fringe stopping its N movement and is starting to take a E shift as opposed to NE. I think it will skirt to my south and stay S of CLT. Just my opinion. I might see a sleet pellet, but that's about it. Temp is 40.6/18, so bring it ! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 If you look at that precip in GA on a loop, you can see the N fringe stopping its N movement and is starting to take a E shift as opposed to NE. I think it will skirt to my south and stay S of CLT. Just my opinion. I might see a sleet pellet, but that's about it. Temp is 40.6/18, so bring it ! LOL What radar are you using mack? Its hard to tell really looking at the radar Im looking at(NWS). Some radars around there not picking it up unless on composite. Pretty good returns around Athens. You probably see more than a sleet pellet. Water vapor does show a good SW>NE flow http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 What radar are you using mack? Its hard to tell really looking at the radar Im looking at(NWS). Some radars around there not picking it up unless on composite. Pretty good returns around Athens. You probably see more than a sleet pellet. Water vapor does show a good SW>NE flow http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html I use accuweathers radar cause its easiest for me, but it way overdoes the returns on the mobile app, I just use it for a base, if things look interesting I'll go to weatherbug or intellicast, even TWC is ok for local radar. Just looks like it's starting to take on an easterly trajectory, but hope I'm wrong! Would not like to rely on Thursday as my last chance for frozen, so I'm game for a surprise tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Looks like moisture rounding the trough south of Texas. It is pulling energy all the way from the Yucatan. This wasn't predicted to phase or anything was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 What radar are you using mack? Its hard to tell really looking at the radar Im looking at(NWS). Some radars around there not picking it up unless on composite. Pretty good returns around Athens. You probably see more than a sleet pellet. Water vapor does show a good SW>NE flow http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Nothing here, I'm 30 miles west of Athens. Air is way too dry to see anything out of that. I'm at 53% humidity and 22 degree dew point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Here is the HRRR for around midnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Guys this thread is for the Thursday night event try and stay on topic please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 50 - 75 miles south. I generally use only NWS base loops. Rest is crap. Extrapolate from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncweather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I am in the foothills and it is still up in the air for my area. Rain, snow, freezing, mix. Hopefully by tomorrow we will have a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Maybe the NAM will throw a miracle?> LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I'm expecting a good suite tonight. Heading out to do my winter storm dance as we speak! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Still diggin SE through hr36, Wedge firmly building in. freezing line at 2m is Xtreme NE GA down right through the spine (middle) of SC down to the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I'm expecting a good suite tonight. Heading out to do my winter storm dance as we speak! TW If not I'm fixing to pull a ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Still diggin SE through hr36, Wedge firmly building in. freezing line at 2m is Xtreme NE GA down right through the spine (middle) of SC down to the coastline. Which Model are you watching. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Still diggin SE through hr36, Wedge firmly building in. freezing line at 2m is Xtreme NE GA down right through the spine (middle) of SC down to the coastline. 0z NAM has strongest CAD yet into the SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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