deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 0z NAM has strongest CAD yet into the SE! Agreed, yet it kicks out the 2m line very quickly...still doesn't make sense...1042mb high I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 0z NAM has strongest CAD yet into the SE! yep, it closed off at hour 48 at 500mb too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Closed at hour 48 over southern MS. NGA and some of CGA about 35 degrees at 2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 still closed at 51 barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 qpf still looks a bit anemic and wrong, but still closed at hour 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Its frustrating the lack of major (and some model runs ANY) qpf for here in the foothills and the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Its frustrating the lack of major (and some model runs ANY) qpf for here in the foothills and the mountains nam is a very very wet run for wnc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 pretty big changes at 5h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Yes, WNC and triad get hit hard with freezing rain this run. Abundant QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Its frustrating the lack of major (and some model runs ANY) qpf for here in the foothills and the mountains I think you spoke a bit too soon. The 00z NAM gives WNC between .5 and .75 inches qpf. Edit: Actually much more than that...it just keeps going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Not sure if that might be some areas of heavy wet snow in the mountains? EDIT: Eh, probably not. Looks like another NAM run with ZR to RN here. Pretty terrible run if you want snow. The western half of NC is getting raked by the comma head... with rain. It's so warm in the mid-levels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 See guys that is the trick, whatever I say is happening, the opposite will occur. I think I must have been looking at the old model run? Either way good news! If it is snow and not freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 ULL looks great, but thermals are a TORCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Not sure if that might be some areas of heavy wet snow in the mountains? EDIT: Eh, probably not. Looks like another NAM run with ZR to RN here. Pretty terrible run if you want snow. Verbatim yes but I think that's a great trend in the right direction. I think the cold/dynamics are not being modeled properly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Not sure if that might be some areas of heavy wet snow in the mountains? EDIT: Eh, probably not. Looks like another NAM run with ZR to RN here. Pretty terrible run if you want snow. Nice to see it stronger, it's slows to a crawl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 Stays closed all the way across AL, GA, into SC havent looked at surface maps yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I am beginning to think there will be ZERO snow, *maybe the mtns, but that is going to be tough* I know ULL manufacture there cold, and models do bad at predicting that, but virtually nothing shows any wintry unless you want some front end ZR/IP over WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I am beginning to think there will be ZERO snow, *maybe the mtns, but that is going to be tough* I know ULL manufacture there cold, and models do bad at predicting that, but virtually nothing shows any wintry unless you want some front end ZR/IP over WNC. SREF plumes show like 2% chance of ZR at one point in KCAE. Definitely not looking like a Wintry deal for either batch of precipitation right now for us further South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 SREF plumes show like 2% chance of ZR at one point in KCAE. Definitely not looking like a Wintry deal for either batch of precipitation right now for us further South. I still think thermals will be colder, especially with a closed ULL like that, but man...we running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 00z NAM is 1.71qpf about .54qpf is with temps 29-32 then she goes thru the roof! Bring on spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I still think thermals will be colder, especially with a closed ULL like that, but man...we running out of time. Correct. I was just speaking on that point about how volatile temps can and will be with ULL and High Pressure systems. My yard busted about 8 degrees too warm in today's forecast. KCAE office are using the top down method tools to determine precip type..but if those surface temps are too warm... like today... yeah a big surprise could happen. Definitely thinking the upstate, nc, possible central & northern midlands of SC are seeing a higher chance at something going haywire the models may be wrong on... Macon is a great deal further South.. but still could be some fun and games come verification time. As I said before.. those once in a decade "never saw it coming" storms can happen... and it's been about that long. Add on top of that a deal with an ULL and CAD.. well.. yeah you know that the bust potential is high for temps and ptype both ways.. just as stormsfury said earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 'fraid it's tulip time folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Very true shawn.. I don't think we will see anything here, just a cold rain under an upper level low. It sucks because the potential is there for so much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 NAM also has me getting up to like 58 tomorrow....I just can't imagine that with a cooler E to NE flow. I have 48 in the forecast. Euro raw is 46 and GFS (12z mos) was 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Wasn't the 12z euro fairly cold. If my thinking is right, we don't need to put an inordinate amount of weight in the 00z NAM. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Putting this here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 How can the models suck this much? All this taxpayer money into a broken system. ULL looks great, but thermals are a TORCH No disrespect intended... but you're a met. There is A developing deep 500mb trough over the east It cuts off but still over all a board trough over the east. 850 cyclogenesis north/along the Gulf coast Surface cyclogenesis in the northern GOM. If you look at the maps below and the flow... if heights and in between are considered equal. How come the models aren't showing more cold then what is there. I realize you also need interactions between the stream to get cold and sometimes powerful storms. But I don't understand what the deal is with models not showing the proper amount of cold air with a setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 0z RGEM v/s 0z NAM at 48.... Edit: The look of the RGEM looks pretty good for something wintery. The RGEM at this range was warm with it's 2m temps for both the 2/11-12 event and for the event yesterday. Once it got within 24 hours it was better with the temps, but still a little warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Just throwing this out there... I've been taking a look at a lot of the experimental products... so they're pretty pointless to talk about/show off... plus I'm not sure I'm allowed to... anyway... Some of these forecasts/grids on the development branch are showing very very cold temps with ZR/Snow for a lot of us in SC & NC by 7am tomorrow morning... on experimental GFS/MOS/NAM etc. In fact, the CAD is all the way down to the SC coast on some of this. The point is... high bust potential either way for some of us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The thing is, just because you have an ULL that has a closed contour or 2 doesn't automatically mean your getting wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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