CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah but...the 2/28/14 06z GFS will haunt us forever. LOL, it shouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The writing has been on the wall for a while...it's not like something was taken immediately away. This had that feeling for 2 days now. Yeah it has. I've had this feeling or a day or two now, but was holding out some hope because I was in a good spot for this. It is what it is. Hate too see a late season chance miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The writing has been on the wall for a while...it's not like something was taken immediately away. This had that feeling for 2 days now. I dunno, I think we thought it would come back north. At least I did and I know others did. Certainly 36-48 hours ago. Yesterday started to get a bad feeling late in the day when the Euro came out and then the 18z GFS looked even worse. But before that, we only needed a bit of a shift north to get pretty solid snows and given the typical progression of southern stream systems (even with a PV to the north)...I thought we could do that. Regardless, this is also why we weren't spiking footballs on great solutions 120 hours out and getting overly enthusiastic. That is a long time in the model world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Cmc pretty much kills NYC in this threat but a huge event for DC -bwi is growing. Very tasty d6 fwiw. Still a few inches for NYC. It wouldn't take much for NYC to get into better snows with 1 more day left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Lets not forget the 00z Feb 28th Euro and ensembles had a decent shift back north...it was only yesterday it really went to crap. It was waffling before that. It was an extremely difficult system for NWP guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not quite understanding the tracking weather is painful and need time off from the board posts. Always a learning experience, the alternative of a cutter would hurt more, keeping the cold extends winter sports season is my take. Could be a great storm for Baltimore and SPA areas. Congrats Southern ski areas where it will stay and use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well When there is a miss I always feel better when it is a miss to the Mid Atlantic's benefit. I know that may offend some NNE folks but the MA gets shafted so often they deserve a good one once and awhile. Of course a whiff to the east that shafts everyone but the fish is worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Never want the PV near or overhead if you live in NNE, It's not like we did not see this comingAhem. March 2001. We simply got boned by a vort lobe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I dunno, I think we thought it would come back north. At least I did and I know others did. Certainly 36-48 hours ago. Yesterday started to get a bad feeling late in the day when the Euro came out and then the 18z GFS looked even worse. But before that, we only needed a bit of a shift north to get pretty solid snows and given the typical progression of southern stream systems (even with a PV to the north)...I thought we could do that. Regardless, this is also why we weren't spiking footballs on great solutions 120 hours out and getting overly enthusiastic. That is a long time in the model world. Well what I mean was that it had that "feeling" that you could tell it may be a battle. I thought it may come north too...I have several posts saying that as well as our texts....but deep down you kind of had that worry..is what I mean. Writing on the wall may not have been the best way of putting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ahem. March 2001. We simply got boned by a vort lobe. PDII trended north by like 300 miles in the final 3 days with a PV just to the north. Its not a hard/fast rule. That was a frigid airmass too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 But it's not like we had a lock for a foot and it was gone in 48 hrs. I think everyone did a good job of stressing the pros and cons. This is the one time in God knows how many that a srn stream system gets squashed by the vortex. Just another example to put on the back burner for down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ahem. March 2001. We simply got boned by a vort lobe. Boned is boned, I'll take my chances without one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yes a PV and a vort lobe are different. In only takes a vort lobe to swing SE and bone you...it's not the PV per se. The PV is the reason why it's not cutting through SYR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 But it's not like we had a lock for a foot and it was gone in 48 hrs. I think everyone did a good job of stressing the pros and cons. This is the one time in God knows how many that a srn stream system gets squashed by the vortex. Just another example to put on the back burner for down the road. How many times has this happened in the past where the mid atlantic gets heavy snow while the northeast is bone dry in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yes a PV and a vort lobe are different. In only takes a vort lobe to swing SE and bone you...it's not the PV per se. The PV is the reason why it's not cutting through SYR. It was pretty clear on ea run that had it you saw what the results were, We were never in it here except for a run or two early on from the get go, But just a couple inches would have done the trick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 But it's not like we had a lock for a foot and it was gone in 48 hrs. I think everyone did a good job of stressing the pros and cons. This is the one time in God knows how many that a srn stream system gets squashed by the vortex. Just another example to put on the back burner for down the road. Yeah we didn't have any monster runs inside of 96 hours on this one...we had some "pretty good" runs where we go like 6-10 from north to south...but nothing that just totally shellacked us...the last run to do that was the 00z Feb 27th Euro which was like 114 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This adds to my feeling that at least for me this winter wiil be more remembered for the cold than the snow. Unless we get some late snows soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah we didn't have any monster runs inside of 96 hours on this one...we had some "pretty good" runs where we go like 6-10 from north to south...but nothing that just totally shellacked us...the last run to do that was the 00z Feb 27th Euro which was like 114 hours out. I'm kind of disappointed in myself for thinking it may come north. I know that would work like 98/100 times...but I feel like I fooled myself. It's like when you have that gut feeling that it may not work out.....but you try to go by experience and previous examples to convince yourself. I probably shouldn't be disappointed...but a lousy feeling. Hindsight is 20/20 anyways....and I know deep down experience would work more often than not with these srn systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This adds to my feeling that at least for me this winter wiil be more remembered for the cold than the snow. Unless we get some late snows soon. Pretty sure we will have more chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GGEM brings the low up the coast at 144, GFS looks good throughout the entire run, plenty of winter left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well tough and sad ending to winter. What can you do. We had a good run but all good things end. Onto dewpoints I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Storm goes south, Powderfreak sends his condolences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm kind of disappointed in myself for thinking it may come north. I know that would work like 98/100 times...but I feel like I fooled myself. It's like when you have that gut feeling that it may not work out.....but you try to go by experience and previous examples to convince yourself. I probably shouldn't be disappointed...but a lousy feeling. Hindsight is 20/20 anyways....and I know deep down experience would work more often than not with these srn systems. You always feel worse with hindsight when its wrong...but it doesn't mean the analysis leading up to it was necessarily unobjective thinking. I'm not sure there were any obvious clues that it would trend 150 miles south in 36 hours....there were arguments on both sides, but neither was really a smoking gun. Sometimes you have smoking guns or The Golden Nugget in a setup, but this wasn't one of them IMHO. If there was, we all would have been hammering that point and said "this one is even going to give NYC trouble for suppression"...but we didn't. There were musings that it could be mostly south of the pike or I kept joking about a sand storm and Sublimation Delight....but a golden nugget that said "aha...this is going to not even be close to a big system" was absent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well tough and sad ending to winter. What can you do. We had a good run but all good things end. Onto dewpoints I guess Lol....until you change your avatar I don't believe you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well tough and sad ending to winter. What can you do. We had a good run but all good things end. Onto dewpoints I guessone extreme or another. ....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You always feel worse with hindsight when its wrong...but it doesn't mean the analysis leading up to it was necessarily unobjective thinking. I'm not sure there were any obvious clues that it would trend 150 miles south in 36 hours....there were arguments on both sides, but neither was really a smoking gun. Sometimes you have smoking guns or The Golden Nugget in a setup, but this wasn't one of them IMHO. If there was, we all would have been hammering that point and said "this one is even going to give NYC trouble for suppression"...but we didn't. There were musings that it could be mostly south of the pike or I kept joking about a sand storm and Sublimation Delight....but a golden nugget that said "aha...this is going to not even be close to a big system" was absent. It's more frustration from a debate I had. Not getting into it..lol. At least it looks active in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's hard to give it up esp after March looked so good. I really can't believe it . Though we'd be buried in snow till April. I hate the end but it's reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Cmc pretty much kills NYC in this threat but a huge event for DC -bwi is growing. Very tasty d6 fwiw. Somewhere in NYC and into SRN CT an RI I think is going to be surprised by the first wave, I'll go as far as saying I think there will be amounts over 6-7 inches from it somewhere, that type of setup, albeit brief from 36-50 hours or so is one the models nearly always miss some sort of mesoscale bands and often underestimate QPF as a whole overall....the 2nd wave however I suspect is still going to end up further south than most guidance currently shows, I would npt be completely surprised if Philly sees next to nothing in the end and even BWI people feel they got screwed, I would focus on the DCA-SBY corridor right now where I think there is serious pounding from the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So I'm guessing the 3 days of snow is off the table? ; ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well tough and sad ending to winter. What can you do. We had a good run but all good things end. Onto dewpoints I guess High dew talk through 10/1.... Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.