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2/18/14 snow event


weathafella

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These meso-beta scaled features (bigger than meso, smaller than typical synoptic) are under-the-radar sort of features, that can sneak in between teleconnector's more obvious signals, and/or other detection methods  

 

Technically, Dec, 2005 was of this ilk. It was meso-beta scaled S/W with lots of compact potency, that also won the lottery in that it ran right over the thickness packing interface between nascent cold and still relatively warm Dec ocean SE of the NY Bite waters.  That was all pretty unique ...   

 

Tuesday would be no analog ...er, yet... But, it does have a negative tilted, shallow latitude wave with some decent dpva ripping just underneath NY/SNE.  The current structure that is modeled in the blend is kind of an IB/isentropic thing that last maybe 4-6 hours. Thing is, the inflow as modeled is nearly normal to the thermo-gradient, and that has a way of maximizing precipitation production.  

 

12z Euro has a similar event for next Saturday, too.  

 

Then, it appears it is coming around to the GFS's idea for the 23rd 25th -ish for the next major player. 

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I may have to be 5-posted until the end of time :weenie:  .. but there are some similarities ..

 

attachicon.gif2151418znam.png

 

attachicon.gif12905.png

 

:bag: 

 

Nah, the thought crossed my mind - hence why I brought it up, but I stop short of calling for and analog here because the surounding medium is too inherently different.  

 

It's really only similar in spatial scale, and for the fact that as discussed, these kind of intermediate sized systems can evade larger scaled detection methods.   

 

In other words, tele's are not very useful for this/that ilk of system(s)

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Drag special LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

***TUESDAY NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL

SNOW EVENT I78 REGION NORTHWARD***

500MB: ENERGETIC FLOW WITH MULTIPLE RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVES

PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA AS THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST EVOLVES

WESTWARD TO A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND...AXISED FROM

HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THE TREND

FOR A BRIEF SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FOR MAYBE A FEW DAYS HERE LATE THIS

WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD

WITH CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEARLY 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL

MONDAY BEFORE EASING TO ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...

THEN ABOUT 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DAILY WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT

SATURDAY.

THE FORECAST BASIS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT-USED MOSTLY THE

COLDER GFS TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS A CLOSER MATCH TO THE 12Z/15 ECMWF

MOS AND 2M TEMPS. TUESDAY USED MAINLY THE 12Z/15 ECMWF/GGEM COMBO

WITH NAM/GFS SUPPORT BUT ONLY ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES! NO BIG WARMUP

FORESEEN TUESDAY...IN FACT THIS COULD BE A DAY WITH 0.5 TO 0.9 WATER

EQUIVALENT SNOW!

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It's certainly not a bomb, it's a no rerunning event essentially with an impulse going under us. These can produce but it probably won't be a huge event. We should have a decent handle by Sunday night.

It's a nice 500 track too on the EC. GFS has it crossing the area as weakening garbage.

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This one definitely has some sneak potential...but its going to be totally dependent on exactly how intact that little potent vortmax remains and where it tracks...if it stays potent and tracks just underneath us, then its like a quick hitter that can produce some low end warning amounts...otherwise its just some WAA snows and maybe an inch or two.

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