weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Guidance is honing in on an advisory event as a bowling ball heads under sne with good cold entrenched for days. Let's discuss particularly after the current event moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 These meso-beta scaled features (bigger than meso, smaller than typical synoptic) are under-the-radar sort of features, that can sneak in between teleconnector's more obvious signals, and/or other detection methods Technically, Dec, 2005 was of this ilk. It was meso-beta scaled S/W with lots of compact potency, that also won the lottery in that it ran right over the thickness packing interface between nascent cold and still relatively warm Dec ocean SE of the NY Bite waters. That was all pretty unique ... Tuesday would be no analog ...er, yet... But, it does have a negative tilted, shallow latitude wave with some decent dpva ripping just underneath NY/SNE. The current structure that is modeled in the blend is kind of an IB/isentropic thing that last maybe 4-6 hours. Thing is, the inflow as modeled is nearly normal to the thermo-gradient, and that has a way of maximizing precipitation production. 12z Euro has a similar event for next Saturday, too. Then, it appears it is coming around to the GFS's idea for the 23rd 25th -ish for the next major player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Verbatim euro shows a good thumping. The projected warm up is like a hurt fighter...on the ropes and looking for a place to fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nice set up in the 18z NAM at 48 hours! Notice the confluence still supplying cold into NE, while the wave is going negative tilted entering the western OV.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM still doesn't go to the GGEM/EURO extremes, but it def. took a big step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nam is a pretty good snow thump ...0.5+ For Boston metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This seems like a 3-6 or 4-8 inch deal. Then we'll hope the backdoor and cold /ice signal maintains next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 usual caveat applies .. but wow that is nice look on the 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I may have to be 5-posted until the end of time .. but there are some similarities .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I may have to be 5-posted until the end of time .. but there are some similarities .. 2151418znam.png 12905.png Nah, the thought crossed my mind - hence why I brought it up, but I stop short of calling for and analog here because the surounding medium is too inherently different. It's really only similar in spatial scale, and for the fact that as discussed, these kind of intermediate sized systems can evade larger scaled detection methods. In other words, tele's are not very useful for this/that ilk of system(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Drag special LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/ ***TUESDAY NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL SNOW EVENT I78 REGION NORTHWARD*** 500MB: ENERGETIC FLOW WITH MULTIPLE RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA AS THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST EVOLVES WESTWARD TO A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND...AXISED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THE TREND FOR A BRIEF SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FOR MAYBE A FEW DAYS HERE LATE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES: SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEARLY 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY BEFORE EASING TO ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY... THEN ABOUT 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DAILY WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE FORECAST BASIS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT-USED MOSTLY THE COLDER GFS TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS A CLOSER MATCH TO THE 12Z/15 ECMWF MOS AND 2M TEMPS. TUESDAY USED MAINLY THE 12Z/15 ECMWF/GGEM COMBO WITH NAM/GFS SUPPORT BUT ONLY ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES! NO BIG WARMUP FORESEEN TUESDAY...IN FACT THIS COULD BE A DAY WITH 0.5 TO 0.9 WATER EQUIVALENT SNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 nice to keep the hits coming...but i dont see much with this for my yard. mid level lows tracking east from chicago and goes overhead, dont tickle me much. better for HFD and points NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The 12z euro was tasty. GFS less than enthusiastic. Look more like a frontal passage. GGEM, well it's the GGEM and it can show whatever it wants. UKMET was cold but system looked N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Three bombs in a row....doubtful. Yet still way too early for #'s. Maybe this one gives most of SNE a an okay snow, without tons of taint or subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro ensembles looked pretty good actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 It's certainly not a bomb, it's a no rerunning event essentially with an impulse going under us. These can produce but it probably won't be a huge event. We should have a decent handle by Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 It's certainly not a bomb, it's a no rerunning event essentially with an impulse going under us. These can produce but it probably won't be a huge event. We should have a decent handle by Sunday night. It's a nice 500 track too on the EC. GFS has it crossing the area as weakening garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 It's certainly not a bomb, it's a no rerunning event essentially with an impulse going under us. These can produce but it probably won't be a huge event. We should have a decent handle by Sunday night. This season? More like Tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 GFS trying to make the followup system a bit more interesting than 2/18. Has another miller B signal on 2/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Three bombs in a row....doubtful. Yet still way too early for #'s. Maybe this one gives most of SNE a an okay snow, without tons of taint or subsidence.lol, just lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 Uncle goes bonkers Tuesday as does cmc. Gfs is meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 This one definitely has some sneak potential...but its going to be totally dependent on exactly how intact that little potent vortmax remains and where it tracks...if it stays potent and tracks just underneath us, then its like a quick hitter that can produce some low end warning amounts...otherwise its just some WAA snows and maybe an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Cmc is not as good as 12z but still better than gfs. The low crosses SNE as opposed to sliding underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I have an exam on tuesday that I'd rather just get over with, therefore this will find a way to strengthen and deliver warning snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro runs the vort under us and looks ok to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Nice look on the Euro..3-6 or even a 4-8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Probably 2-5 region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Did the Euro have .40-.50 for the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 More like .3 to .4 but it depends on where this tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Kooky NAM is a little powerhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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