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2014 Short/Med Range Severe Weather Disco


Chicago Storm

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I am actually a bit surprised there weren't more big reports, that storm had 60+ dBZ over 20000' at a few points during the last 90 minutes. Then again whoever is spotting on the storm probably didn't want to go into the hail core and get hit with golf balls or greater.

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Wow at this report

 

1025 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 WNW MARENGO 42.28N 88.69W
04/12/2014 MCHENRY IL PUBLIC

LARGE GRAIN AUGERS RIPPED FROM TOP OF GRAIN
BINS...SHINGLES PEELED OFF ROOFS...IRRIGATION SYSTEMS
BLOWN OVER...BARNS BLOWN DOWN AND A BRANCH STUCK INTO THE
SIDE OF A HOUSE. REPORT VIA FACEBOOK. 

 

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SB CAPE 1000-2000 now over most of IA.  Most likely threat is hail with lapse rates as they are, but a little surprised to see the Sig Tor at 1 over part of the IL/WI border, even with the strong helicity currently shown.  All parameters per current SPC meso page.

 

Leading edge of the EML is just arriving, so CAPE should continue up. Real agitated look to the satellite north of DSM on the north side of Highway 20.

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Could've been; huronicane posted an image of a hook on radar that might have approached that area.

 

 

Report sounds interesting but it was in a pretty inhospitable environment for tornadoes with relatively cool temps and T/Td spreads on the high side.  Strange things happen sometimes though.

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mcd0324.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...IOWA INTO PARTS OF SRN WISCONSIN/NRN ILLINOIS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 121930Z - 122130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME. LARGE HAIL MAY BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT..AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT SOME VERY
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABLY
WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...BENEATH THE NOSE OF WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR
ADVECTING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION...THE INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. DESPITE SEASONABLY MODEST MOISTURE...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S...MAXIMUM MIXED LAYER CAPE APPEARS
LIKELY TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON...IN THE PRESENCE OF
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF INHIBITION APPEARS UNDERWAY WITH CONTINUED
INSOLATION...AND THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO BE AUGMENTED BY AT LEAST
SUBTLE COOLING IN MID-LEVELS /AROUND 700 MB/ DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 22-00Z TIME
FRAME.

THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SUGGEST ACTIVITY COULD INITIATE
FIRST NEAR/SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF MASON CITY IA...IN THE VICINITY OF
THE INTERSECTION OF A REMNANT CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONTAL ZONE AND
A LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT THEN APPEARS PROBABLE SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE TROUGH...TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK...DEEPER LAYER SHEAR
BENEATH 30-50 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS...LARGE HAIL IS PROBABLY THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME OF THIS COULD BECOME RATHER SIZABLE...WITH
LARGEST HAILSTONES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

..KERR/HART.. 04/12/2014


ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 41999584 42899468 43429351 42818933 41829004 41039493
41999584 

 

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Looks like this cell is going my north by just a couple miles.  With those type of winds I don't need it as I prefer to keep power!!

 

Maybe not. Looks like you're under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

 

The strongest winds actually look to be on the southern edge of those storms, judging from the base radar velocity.

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