Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think you're right pending whether or not the band moving in now approaching Weymouth gets here. Bouchard is heavily heding for you now but it seems premature. The best is just coming in now and it may well pivot up over Boston and even as far back as Ray with the pivot point being around taunton as it rotates NW later. Hmm interesting look on radar right now. Stuff is collapsing towards me, and that stuff down towards the canal isn't moving much. I hope that stuff starts making a push. Starting to think I may be to far nw. You're on the edge. Bouchards radar shows it collapsing SE but if you look...there's a push NW. Take a close look around Sharon..that band is making headway NW again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Ummmmm what is God's name is up with 3" on Noyes' s Map???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Bouchard is heavily heding for you now but it seems premature. The best is just coming in now and it may well pivot up over Boston and even as far back as Ray with the pivot point being around taunton as it rotates NW later. You're on the edge. Bouchards radar shows it collapsing SE but if you look...there's a push NW. Take a close look around Sharon..that band is making headway NW again. Yup, the last few frames it shows it making some movement. I might be sweating it out. Difference between 8" and 12-14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Noyes bought the latest GFS it looks like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Going to be quick but potent, moisture is hauling up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walthsnow Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Looks like heavier returns starting to push west a little past Boston. Killer gradient tonight though. Enjoy it out on the cape and SE Mass. Looks to be spectacular tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Going to be quick but potent, moisture is hauling up the coast. I'm comfortable with the 7-10 here which leaves 4-7" more inches. Radar did take a beating there, things starting to wrap in from the water...22z HRRR...well others can go look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Radar blossoming over Western and C CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 latest HRRR reflectivity for 9pm tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I will note, it is snowing better than radar would indicate. Just watched Bouchard. He gave specific forecast totals for a bunch of towns. Has taunton at exactly a foot, we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I posted the most positive HRRR run of the day just a page ago. A run later it went to crap...seems to be pretty far off. This is for 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walthsnow Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 KBOX updated discussion at 6:40. Said mesoscale models are perhaps backing off of heavy precip getting to 128. I think this storm can still produce nicely here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Harvey at 6:00pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 640 PM UPDATE... HEAVY SNOW BAND ALIGNED FROM PROVIDENCE TO NEAR QUINCY...POINTS SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME PLACES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HAVE ALREADY MEASURED BETWEEN 5 AND 6.5 INCHES. EVERYONE WAS CURRENTLY SNOW...EXCEPT NANTUCKET/OUTER CAPE WHERE THERE WAS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD TURN OVER TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW BOMBS OUT. OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW FOCUSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND CAPE COD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS DOES THIS BAND PUSH INTO THE BOSTON...NORTH SHORE REGION. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS THE LAST FEW HOURS. THEIR TREND MIGHT BE RIGHT...BUT SEEMS LIKE THEY MAY HAVE GONE TOO FAR GIVEN UPPER LEVEL SETUP. STILL A VERY TOUGH FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT NEAR I-95...WHERE THE HEAVY QPF CUTS OFF. ALL IN ALL...JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO DECREASE SNOW TOTALS JUST A TAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA REGION. NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 KBOX updated discussion at 6:40. Said mesoscale models are perhaps backing off of heavy precip getting to 128. I think this storm can still produce nicely here. Yeah, they see the RAP and HRRR a little faster than we do. It continued on the 23z RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 radar blossoming w/ slightly heavier echos across western ct / ma .. this should progress eastwards and begin to merge with the heavier bands slowly pivoting nw (don't see it getting much further. harvey's map looks spot on imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I could see Ginx to GON putting up big totals. Maybe 10"?left work 5ish in 1/8 to mile vis, white knuckle ride home, 4 new, lt snow, hope to pick up a couple on the north hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Heavy snow still. Wind picking up. Just shoveled the path real quick 5+ inches out there close to 5.5 Snow depth is rather impressive in shaded areas, close to a foot and a half in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 2:00 - 2" 5:15 - 3.25" 6:45 - 3.75" Still not at 4". HRRR says it's pretty much dive for me in 4 hours? Ohh boy. Harvey and NWS 8"-12"/14" Noyes 3" more. Sooooomeone is going to be Way wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Doubt Harv's right this time but let's hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 2:00 - 2" 5:15 - 3.25" 6:45 - 3.75" Still not at 4". HRRR says it's pretty much dive for me in 4 hours? Ohh boy. Harvey and NWS 8"-12"/14" Noyes 3" more. Sooooomeone is going to be Way wrong. Yeah RI kind of in a dryslot. That should fill in when the bombing occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Theres' gotta be at least 6" OTG now by Logan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Wish there were more spacing and "atmospheric recovery" between our current storm and the 2/15. yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 yup Yeah the 30 miles really was detrimental to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 This is just me talking out loud but there are two scenarios IMHO right now for BOS. Scenario 1. It gets really awesome for like 2-3 hours but heaviest stuff just tickles the terminal and then moves east. Total is like 5-7" or so perhaps. Scenario 2) This would be the GFS despite the QPF...heavy banding gets into the area and it snows 2-3"/hr. Totals would approach a foot or so. This morning I felt comfortable with the 6-10...actually I liked BOX map....I think Will even mentioned it as well. These little ticks east or west are detrimental. Going above 10" for a a snowstorm lasting 8 hrs or so is not easy so you have to be confident. Toned down scenario 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I think a issue that models may not have picked up on .(until 18z for nam and 0z gfs).. Or box on their 645 pm update disco (bc it bombed) or Harv Was what Barcolonic instability said in back to back posts on Friday I still think it makes sense, however, that the frontogenesis max ends slightly farther E given the wiped out Gulf Stream and the more likely position of the warm front.I.e the jet stream fuel was not hi octane and this in the end made the difference between being a epic bomb for cape and warning snows where Harv and box thought Probably linked somewhere else, but this succinctly depicts the evisceration of the deep Gulf Stream moisture: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.htmlThe spent atmosphere idea has legs and the eviscarated Gulf Stream was a clue as to ...is it?This could have been special if the Gulf Stream was not wiped out by a storm so large 36 hrs prior , so large that said storm had 3/13/93 as a #3 analog, that looks tom have capped development on what otherwise would have had better atlantic inflow and moisture to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I don't agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I don't agree. I didnt think you would bc you said "tell 1996 that" But i am inclined to think it was a key wrt why things played out. I would like to hear more from Barcolonic instability or other out of region mets on that. I think he is a extremely insightful met. It would seem Box didnt see this as important and obviously lol i didnt pick up on this ... It was fed to me but i find it hard to believe a spent Gulf Stream didnt effect such a bomb feeding on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I didnt think you would bc you said "tell 1996 that" But i am inclined to think it was a key wrt why things played out. I would like to hear more from Barcolonic instability or other out of region mets on that. I think he is a extremely insightful met. It would seem Box didnt see this as important and obviously lol i didnt pick up on this ... It was fed to me but i find it hard to believe a spent Gulf Stream didnt effect such a bomb feeding on it I already stated why. It was a tad progressive and shifted east like 20-30 miles. I don't think people near the canal are complaining about wave placements. When you have a sharp cutoff west of the deformation area..it's going to be critical where this ends up. So instead I got what BOS was going to get and areas like GHG got what I was going to get. This wasn't a bust out west either. It was only in a narrow area that mattered most near the deformation and this happened to be BOS metro. It's important to keep this in perception. There was plenty of juice with this...that was not the issue. This is a progressive pattern...that has more of a say then wave placement. Wave placement obviously matters, but it's important not to get wrapped up in this stuff. Models are good...of course they can resolve moisture issues in 2014...this isn't 1996 anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I didnt think you would bc you said "tell 1996 that" But i am inclined to think it was a key wrt why things played out. I would like to hear more from Barcolonic instability or other out of region mets on that. I think he is a extremely insightful met. It would seem Box didnt see this as important and obviously lol i didnt pick up on this ... It was fed to me but i find it hard to believe a spent Gulf Stream didnt effect such a bomb feeding on it I think what Jason was pointing out was that inherent baroclinicity would be displaced farther E, as CAA behind the departing system shoved the warm air southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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