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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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You have a couple of the SE models ticking NW. The NW models ticking SE. Nice consensus coming together. This is a great storm east of ORH though I think for most.

 

Ignoring QPF, the mid level banding signatures have always pointed towards the canal. I couldn't care less what the individual guidance spits out for them now, I like the features I see.

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I would say the best banding was never really modeled out in ur area aside from a run of the gfs that oceanstwx posted w a graphic on it, And he mentioned he was skeptical of the gfs placement of lift so far nw of 7h warm front. This is speaking of this storm specifically. I would think best banding would tend to set up perhaps over specific areas (more often but not exclusively) do to orographic effects

I deleted that so as not to clutter the thread, but I don't believe that orographic considerations have an impact on the placement of dynamics born of the mid levels...however, they can enhance/inhibit them depending on where they set up relative to local terrain.

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Here is HPC's sfc depiction from an hour and a half ago...

90fwbg.gif

Here is the NAMs 18z position off the 12z run...

nam_namer_006_1000_500_thick.gif

Though there is that 1.5 hour discrep. ...clearly, the NAM is way too far E

Convection is fooking with the NAM. Looking at surface plots on NAM it's evident.

Is that surface plot as of the issue time or is it as of 15z?
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15z is a maul from Boston into se ma and the canal. Right around the canal intense banding signal and a bullseye of almost 14-16". Interior cape ann even makes a run @ 8-9". Basically a foot of snow anywhere from BOS SE. lol

HRRR has been steadily improving all day. Compare 12z to 15z. 12z only had like 2" at ORH and 15z has 5"+. BOS went from 4" on 12z to 9" on 15z. Clearly not a very reliable model lol.

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Convection is fooking with the NAM. Looking at surface plots on NAM it's evident.

Violently agree.  The 1 pm observation from the Virginia Beach buoy (64 miles E of Va. Beach) is at 995 mb with a SE wind, indicating that the slp is still south of that, far from the NAM depiction and much stronger.  Pressure was still falling rapidly.

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that dryslot south of LI has it's sights set on me and most of central CT. You guys can cling onto whatever hope you want...but I doubt anyone outside of New London and Windham counties in CT sees advisory level snows out of this. And inch or two at best.

 

Yep, just mentioned this in the Obs thread.  Dryslot is going to be ugly.

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It's also a 15z analysis and a forecast valid at 18z. You would expect the low to move northeast in 3 hours.

 

Yeah I confused the Issue time with the analysis...

 

Having said that, the low still appears well west of that NAM position if buoy 44014 is correct with SE wind @ 64nm E of VA B.

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Yeah I confused the Issue time with the analysis...

 

Having said that, the low still appears well west of that NAM position if buoy 44014 is correct with SE wind @ 64nm E of VA B.

 

There is a definitely a circulation a little east of the NC/VA border. Models are forecasting a skip to the NE of the surface low though, so it's possible this is underway. That lack of buoy data south of SNE is really going to hurt.

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