Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro is a tad east in wrn areas with 0.25 and 0.5, but identical near BOS and through Ray.Closing in on the banding signal.seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 You have a couple of the SE models ticking NW. The NW models ticking SE. Nice consensus coming together. This is a great storm east of ORH though I think for most. Ignoring QPF, the mid level banding signatures have always pointed towards the canal. I couldn't care less what the individual guidance spits out for them now, I like the features I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 850mb has a more frontogeneic look rather than a 60kt ESE inflow. However a lot of forcing at 700 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Does the North Shore get in to the banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Here is HPC's sfc depiction from an hour and a half ago... Here is the NAMs 18z position off the 12z run... Though there is that 1.5 hour discrep. ...clearly, the NAM is way too far E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Is the 850 low alligned with good easterly inflow or is it more stretched N-S . That was a key Will was alluding to last nite Wrt much precip extending back and atlantic inflow It looked nice on uncle but I can't see that project at 12 hours in the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 that dryslot south of LI has it's sights set on me and most of central CT. You guys can cling onto whatever hope you want...but I doubt anyone outside of New London and Windham counties in CT sees advisory level snows out of this. And inch or two at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I would say the best banding was never really modeled out in ur area aside from a run of the gfs that oceanstwx posted w a graphic on it, And he mentioned he was skeptical of the gfs placement of lift so far nw of 7h warm front. This is speaking of this storm specifically. I would think best banding would tend to set up perhaps over specific areas (more often but not exclusively) do to orographic effects I deleted that so as not to clutter the thread, but I don't believe that orographic considerations have an impact on the placement of dynamics born of the mid levels...however, they can enhance/inhibit them depending on where they set up relative to local terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Here is HPC's sfc depiction from an hour and a half ago... Here is the NAMs 18z position off the 12z run... Though there is that 1.5 hour discrep. ...clearly, the NAM is way too far E Convection is fooking with the NAM. Looking at surface plots on NAM it's evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Impressive echoes moving for all of eastern mass south of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Here is HPC's sfc depiction from an hour and a half ago... Here is the NAMs 18z position off the 12z run... Though there is that 1.5 hour discrep. ...clearly, the NAM is way too far E Convection is fooking with the NAM. Looking at surface plots on NAM it's evident.Is that surface plot as of the issue time or is it as of 15z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Convection is fooking with the NAM. Looking at surface plots on NAM it's evident. It's also a 15z analysis and a forecast valid at 18z. You would expect the low to move northeast in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's also a 15z analysis and a forecast valid at 18z. You would expect the low to move northeast in 3 hours.This, I thought the nam was fairly on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Just a word of caution too, the most recent storm seems to have knocked a number of buoys offline. Any pressure fall analyses you see may be skewed to the west because there is no data to the east to incorporate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 15z is a maul from Boston into se ma and the canal. Right around the canal intense banding signal and a bullseye of almost 14-16". Interior cape ann even makes a run @ 8-9". Basically a foot of snow anywhere from BOS SE. lol HRRR has been steadily improving all day. Compare 12z to 15z. 12z only had like 2" at ORH and 15z has 5"+. BOS went from 4" on 12z to 9" on 15z. Clearly not a very reliable model lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Convection is fooking with the NAM. Looking at surface plots on NAM it's evident. Violently agree. The 1 pm observation from the Virginia Beach buoy (64 miles E of Va. Beach) is at 995 mb with a SE wind, indicating that the slp is still south of that, far from the NAM depiction and much stronger. Pressure was still falling rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 that dryslot south of LI has it's sights set on me and most of central CT. You guys can cling onto whatever hope you want...but I doubt anyone outside of New London and Windham counties in CT sees advisory level snows out of this. And inch or two at best. Yep, just mentioned this in the Obs thread. Dryslot is going to be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Man that 12z ECM run absolutely punishes SE Mass later on this evening into tonight... is that 1.6" melted near the Canal in the next 18 hours? Wow, good luck guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's also a 15z analysis and a forecast valid at 18z. You would expect the low to move northeast in 3 hours. Yeah I confused the Issue time with the analysis... Having said that, the low still appears well west of that NAM position if buoy 44014 is correct with SE wind @ 64nm E of VA B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 850mb has a more frontogeneic look rather than a 60kt ESE inflow. However a lot of forcing at 700 too. avn_09_850.gif avn_15_850.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 850mb has a more frontogeneic look rather than a 60kt ESE inflow. However a lot of forcing at 700 too. avn_09_850.gif avn_15_850.gif Errors with that Scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This hi res vis image also is a stark argument against the NAM 18z position: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Game on then. Put away the models and watch it come in. 6-9" final call here. man reading this thread today was painful, I tried to stay away from it, I'm going with the same for here enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yeah I confused the Issue time with the analysis... Having said that, the low still appears well west of that NAM position if buoy 44014 is correct with SE wind @ 64nm E of VA B. There is a definitely a circulation a little east of the NC/VA border. Models are forecasting a skip to the NE of the surface low though, so it's possible this is underway. That lack of buoy data south of SNE is really going to hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 avn_09_850.gif avn_15_850.gif now that is a thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 16z HRRR is another bump in totals in the east but drastically more paltry for those west of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 man reading this thread today was painful, I tried to stay away from it, I'm going with the same for here enjoy! I'm only going to participate in the obs thread for the rest of the storm. GL guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I feel bad for ack. They can't win it seems unless they're the only ones partying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nice to not have to look at an elongated low pressure system again. Tight compact and powerful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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