PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The stuff off AC now is very likely going to fall here as sleet or rain. 850s are too warm. We need to pay attention to what's SW of there and where that tracks. The batch over SE VA looks like it's on a track to affect many of us for a while, but it could enhance/decline based on how the upper low performs. We want it to close off and be shunted east as much as possible. But the NW rotation 100 miles E of AC s in response to where this is prob bellying under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow shots of heavier rain here. My snowpack! My snowpack ! lol but yes I was just going to say that.....HRRR vs RAP! Fight takes place in a few hours. Who will win and who will cave first ? my vote is for the RAP, but I hope the HRRR beats it's butt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Excuse me for using a weenie RADAR , but I just wanted show the extend of this out over the ocean The explosion of precip off the coast looks good. But we're going to need upper level temps to cool off ASAP or we're going to lose a bunch of QPF to liquid. Heavy rain right now in WIlmington, Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 WV NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Where did you get the 21z hrrr.... rap site is 20z still and that isn't even working? Could you possibly post the totals map if allowed? I cant WB . Sorry mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 every snowstorm there is a select few posters that are going to get there plums busted. congrats you've made the list here you go enjoy! Jm1220 that's where im focusing. that stuff looks highly convective when it gets up here and could produce some prolific rates again for several hours Listen I taught middle school in the city for ten years you guys can't even begin to know the abuse I took, all in good fun. As Dirty Harry said, a man's gotta know his limitations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Where did you get the 21z hrrr.... rap site is 20z still and that isn't even working? Could you possibly post the totals map if allowed? The 21z looks like it's out on weatherbell but not the main site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like the stuff out west and the moisture down south may converge into a large precip shield. This will probably be a case of how fast can we cool things down to get the most snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The explosion of precip off the coast looks good. But we're going to need upper level temps to cool off ASAP or we're going to lose a bunch of QPF to liquid. Heavy rain right now in WIlmington, Delaware. Yeh , Think the 1st few hours on the coast is sleet and FRZ - its 30 in Colts Neck and 32 in Brooklyn . So it maybe ugly for a bit here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 very warm everywhere at 800mb per ADDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 WV NE 2-13 wvloop1.gif its jogging NE so that is a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Might be a sleet fest if those 850s don't cool down. The 21z HRRR is has good handle on this. 850mb temps don't crash until after 3z for Eastern NJ, NYC. That when those areas get most of the snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 very warm everywhere at 800mb per ADDS I am looking for actual flight data for planes coming into or leaving EWR. Should be able to tell freezing levels real easy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow shots of heavier rain here. My snowpack! My snowpack ! lol but yes I was just going to say that.....HRRR vs RAP! Fight takes place in a few hours. Who will win and who will cave first ? my vote is for the RAP, but I hope the HRRR beats it's butt It could be worse. Honestly the snowpack doesn't appear all that much deeper where I am than before this morning given all the settling/compacting that has taken place, and the fact I got about half as much snow as 90% of the forum. I'll probably have 12-14" of cement by morning after the backlash is through and we cool down. The piles certainly are larger though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 21z HRRR is has good handle on this. 850mb temps don't crash until after 3z for Eastern NJ, NYC. That when those areas get most of the snowfall. This could be why the 21z HRRR snowfall maps are a little overdone. It's probably counting the precip before 10:00pm as snow, when it's really going to be sleet. The HRRR might interpret sleet as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 PHL has a thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just compared the 850mb temps on the 22z HRRR at 23z to current 23z 850mb temps and the HRRR is slightly too warm by about 1C to 2C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 925mb is below 0C, sleetfest incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If you look at the 21z accumulated snowfall at 3 utc, you'll see there isn't much there http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014021321/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f06.png Most of what it calls accumulated snow comes in later. Now whether it is right or not... Whole other question. This could be why the 21z HRRR snowfall maps are a little overdone. It's probably counting the precip before 10:00pm as snow, when it's really going to be sleet. The HRRR might interpret sleet as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This could be why the 21z HRRR snowfall maps are a little overdone. It's probably counting the precip before 10:00pm as snow, when it's really going to be sleet. The HRRR might interpret sleet as snow. Good point. Sleet however would be terrible. Ice up everything a bit underneath a few more inches of snow and make the roads a mess in the morning and make plowing quite the chore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This could be why the 21z HRRR snowfall maps are a little overdone. It's probably counting the precip before 10:00pm as snow, when it's really going to be sleet. The HRRR might interpret sleet as snow. Yeah, it looks one-third of the HRRR's snowfall totals are probably sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I am looking for actual flight data for planes coming into or leaving EWR. Should be able to tell freezing levels real easy with that. I have snow falling in highland lakes, NJ - 50 miles NNW of the city temp 25F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 850`s are going to collapse in from the backside . Not N to S . So watch the reports out of DC then Philly , they will go over 1 st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well as suspected, the new HRRR 22z moved pretty far northwest in line with the RAP with the snows. A couple inches here and 10-12" Sussex/western passaic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 850`s are going to collapse in from the backside . Not N to S . So watch the reports out of DC then Philly , they will go over 1 st DC should be flipping any minute now based on thicknesses on SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well as suspected, the new HRRR moved pretty far northwest in line with the RAP with the snows. A couple inches here and 10-12" Sussex/western passaic 21 or 22z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 21 or 22z? 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well as suspected, the new HRRR 22z moved pretty far northwest in line with the RAP with the snows. A couple inches here and 10-12" Sussex/western passaic It didnt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 No need to obsess over this, it is what it is. We'll just what happens I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well as suspected, the new HRRR 22z moved pretty far northwest in line with the RAP with the snows. A couple inches here and 10-12" Sussex/western passaiccan you give specific precip amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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