jjvesnow Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 SOrry for all the maps. Just cant believe we would get that much more snow. 9 hours on the RAP. Precip starting to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 not sure where you are but i thought NWNJ -- if so its looking great for you buddy and more inline with HRRR - showing some consistency now - at least better than before Nope ! Lol unfortunately I'm on the wrong side NE NJ here....I've just been saying I prefer the RAP because it seems more accurate, which it seems to be proving here at least. I definitely don't prefer it's solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Just epic here.... from 10-11 inches of snow this morning, to FRZA... then a lull of 6+ hours... only to rocket back in with a freezing thunderstorm at 32 degrees even with the possibility of 4-8 more inches of snow.... un freaking believable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 SOrry for all the maps. Just cant believe we would get that much more snow. 9 hours on the RAP. Precip starting to end. most is not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If you were watching the radar it wouldn't have been a huge surprise. No one bothers with obs and the radar anymore. Agreed-I am watching radar more than I am any model. The upper low looks to be over the Chesapeake Bay now maybe just SE of the mouth of the Potomac. It seems to still be headed mostly NE-its trajectory to that point has been from around Charlotte, so on that trajectory it will go SE of Long Island, however it is expected to turn more NNE soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I run a page and there are TONS of reports of Lightning. This is going to be something special tonight guys! This is already special here. took my dog out to go outside to see lightning. Amazing.... and to think that models are now spitting out another 4-8" over WNJ here after this is just awe inspiring. Now you gentlemen (and any ladies???) know why I went for that red tag under my name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 ok for those asking for specifics on 23 HRRR - FWIW WLI/NYC: 2-5" verbatim ELI: 1-3" verbatim still a few hours left in HRRR but not adding much on this run NWNJ - 8-15" Most of the coast except NENJ: 2" SWNJ: 8-12" just the messenger... would post the map but some how dont know how What about central NJ? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is already special here. took my dog out to go outside to see lightning. Amazing.... and to think that models are now spitting out another 4-8" over WNJ here after this is just awe inspiring. Now you gentlemen (and any ladies???) know why I went for that red tag under my name. Lived through 93 and 96 and the variety of 'stuff' being thrown at us, along with the pace and the preceding snowfalls, make this one very close to my top. Here in Sussex County, after tonight, it may take the thrown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Agreed-I am watching radar more than I am any model. The upper low looks to be over the Chesapeake Bay now maybe just SE of the mouth of the Potomac. It seems to still be headed mostly NE-its trajectory to that point has been from around Charlotte, so on that trajectory it will go SE of Long Island, however it is expected to turn more NNE soon. just real punch to the plums we're not going to get pummeled tonight with a CCB. it would've really made this storm more epic for the ENTIRE tri-state area. having a closed 500mb low passing E/SE of LI which is what me and you would need and still not getting into the heavy banding hurts buddy. still impressed with today however as yesterday it was a few inches and that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 most is not snow I dont know. a lot colder up here. Even if 80% is snow. Still crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 lots of melting going on here in middlesex county... without any significant rain falling. i suspect i could end up with a net loss of snowcover tonight. major rain incoming on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 You know...I didn't notice at first.....not only does NW NJ jackpot here with this backend...philly does too!! Just SE of PHL around Chester, PA and Wilmington, DE....shows another foot of snow...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well this is why I downplayed the wraparound snows because they will likely favor those to the N&W. Still I don't see why a few inches isn't possible given all the models give us some snow once we changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 just real punch to the plums we're not going to get pummeled tonight with a CCB. it would've really made this storm more epic for the ENTIRE tri-state area. having a closed 500mb low passing E/SE of LI which is what me and you would need and still not getting into the heavy banding hurts buddy. still impressed with today however as yesterday it was a few inches and that's it I've moved onto the Saturday threat for the most part. I might do somewhat better than you with the CCB as I am a good bit west of you in western Nassau, but the threat Saturday looks nice for our area at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 lots of melting going on here in middlesex county... without any significant rain falling. i suspect i could end up with a net loss of snowcover tonight. Yeah ironically it ended up being our warmest day in a while and its quite wet out despite a foot of new snow this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 While we are arguing over who gets the most " SNOW " 1.2 to 1.4 of liquid does fall from Trenton N into the Hudson Valley as per 22z HRRR But .7- to .9 ( not exactly dry sloted ) is goin fall from CNJ thru NYC and Nassau County .5 out onto Suffolk . Surfaces around like Colts Neck at 30 Laurel Hollow 29 and other places that are below 0c are going to present other problems . So the snow maps don`t look epic but all that liquid below freezing is another problem if the mid levels don't warm fast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 lots of melting going on here in middlesex county... without any significant rain falling. i suspect i could end up with a net loss of snowcover tonight. major rain incoming on radar. Looks like Middlesex is sitting at the R/S line right now. Temperature dropped here in New Brunswick to 32 from 34 the past hour. Seems to still be dropping. I think we start out as all sleet then change over to snow for a period of time. How much we get all depends on where these bands set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yeah ironically it ended up being our warmest day in a while and its quite wet out despite a foot of new snow this morning I can tell from the lack of activity here that there isn't going to be widespread heavy snows tonight, just in some areas. truthfully I'm worn out, and we need a day of school tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yeah ironically it ended up being our warmest day in a while and its quite wet out despite a foot of new snow this morning It's probably compaction more than melting. 35F isn't enough to melt a lot of snow. But I definitely noticed that here too. We don't have a much higher depth now than before the storm, maybe a few inches higher. Tonight's snow can hopefully get us that back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 23z HRRR already too warm with 850mb compared to what they are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 While we are arguing over who gets the most " SNOW " 1.2 to 1.4 of liquid does fall from Trenton N into the Hudson Valley as per 22z HRRR But .7- to .9 ( not exactly dry sloted ) is goin fall from CNJ thru NYC and Nassau County .5 out onto Suffolk . Surfaces around like Colts Neck at 30 Laurel Hollow 29 and other places that are below 0c are going to present other problems . So the snow maps don`t look epic but all that liquid below freezing is another problem if the mid levels don't warm fast . well I can tell you the assist super in my town is trying to decide what to tell the super about tomorrow, and we really need to get back to school. 2-3 inches and we will open. This is northern Middlesex Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I can tell from the lack of activity here that there isn't going to be widespread heavy snows tonight, just in some areas. truthfully I'm worn out, and we need a day of school tomorrow. There likely will, but the heaviest snow will reside along I-287 it seems. East of there looks to get swiped for a couple of hours but it's hard for me to see more than 2-4" anywhere east of the city. If I have 3" with this batch later, that would get me to 8.5", which to a T is about what I thought would happen here. Parts of that I-287 corridor may finish this off with 18-20" total though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like Middlesex is sitting at the R/S line right now. Temperature dropped here in New Brunswick to 32 from 34 the past hour. Seems to still be dropping. i've yet to see any cooling. i'm 3 miles from the rutgers weather station, and it's been sitting at 33F for hours. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 She looks pissed off down around Delaware nice rotation lock n load . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY712 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ071>075-176-178-140130-BRONX-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN PASSAIC-EASTERNUNION-HUDSON-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-NORTHERNQUEENS-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERNWESTCHESTER-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN PASSAIC-WESTERNUNION-712 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014...HEAVY RAIN AND SLEET TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH 830 PM...A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SLEET WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH 830PM. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE LIKELY WITHTHIS ACTIVITY.A COATING OF SLEET ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 830 PM. INADDITION...SOME MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.THE RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 9AND 10 PM...AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ103&warncounty=NJC003&firewxzone=NJZ103&local_place1=&product1=Special+Weather+Statement#.Uv1kJjnU7zI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 850mb low is still S of your area and not far enough east to wrap in cold air...Until the traverses NE it won't be snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 21z HRRR: Select colors: Yellow-green: 4"-6" Yellow: 6"-8" Yellow-orange: 8"-10" Orange: 10"-12" Red-orange: 12"-18" I would assume the pink would be 18-24 up near KSWF ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It's probably compaction more than melting. 35F isn't enough to melt a lot of snow. But I definitely noticed that here too. We don't have a much higher depth now than before the storm, maybe a few inches higher. Tonight's snow can hopefully get us that back. Maybe not depth but the piles are much higher than before, also depends on snow amounts I guess but it was very wet and slushy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottynic Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 could have sworn I just aw a flash of lighting and then a thunder roll... 33 light rain... manville NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJKen Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 FYI: The lightning and thunder is incredible in Hillsborough. Good Call folks! 32.7 °F and pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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