Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM isn't all that different from the NAM. Stinger is out west, doesn't cool down in Boston until the very end. It definitely shifted the QPF a smidge SE say up in southern Canada and northern VT but not much. Tucks the low a little west at 36 hours...minor shifts. Great system in that stripe we keep talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 some interesting observations downstream upstream. Danbury/Naugatuck WX@danburyweather26 mins 2hr NAM vs. 9pm obs: 2m temp was very good, however 850s analyzed at 2-4C colder than the NAM forecast across SE VA/NE NC. Fixed that for you. Any sense of how the 18z GFS or 00z EC lined up to current conditions? Just trying to read the tea leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 to my untrained eyes the RGEM is a tad cooler, makes a big difference for me I think so watching closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Fixed that for you. Any sense of how the 18z GFS or 00z EC lined up to current conditions? Just trying to read the tea leaves. Thanks, did not see anyone post that analysis yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 to my untrained eyes the RGEM is a tad cooler, makes a big difference for me I think so watching closely.Its all about that BL temps from 8-5 tommorrow, coastal wx last nite was saying how wind direction is a big key wrt bos area and it prob goes the same for you out to past 128. I havent heard anything wrt wind direction forecast tendencys for e/ne mass cp wrt when or if winds go from East to north east 30/22 GON 4/-2 ORE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 How are the front-end snows on the RGEM? Look pretty good from what I can see, just seems pretty warm. Sleets to ALB? Seems. Little wacky. Low tracks over canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM verbatim is probably about 6-7" at BOS and more like 10" for the 128 corridor to the northwest and 10-12 out to ORH with some 12"+ lollis in the Berkshires and SW Monadnocks/extreme N ORH hills as they get a better piece of the backlash stuff. Looks like a solid swath of about 6-8" for most of CT into the northern half of RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM verbatim is probably about 6-7" at BOS and more like 10" for the 128 corridor to the northwest and 10-12 out to ORH with some 12"+ lollis in the Berkshires and SW Monadnocks/extreme N ORH hills as they get a better piece of the backlash stuff. Looks like a solid swath of about 6-8" for most of CT into the northern half of RI. What about NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That's a pretty decent period of ice over the interior being advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS looks fooked up with the front end stuff. It slides it ENE. That's what I was hoping not to happen. I think it's a little bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 hr 27 below LI, similar maybe a tickle colder. Nothing major yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Central SNE and western SNE are stung hard by backside CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That's a pretty decent period of ice over the interior being advertised. What model is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS looks fooked up with the front end stuff. It slides it ENE. That's what I was hoping not to happen. I think it's a little bogus. And it rips central areas with the CCB. I can;t buy that model right now. I def don't buy it with the front end stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 500 and 700 are further north and west respectively which leaves eastern sne out of the backlash potential on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wrn CT to nrn ORH hit hard with backside. Maybe even 3-6 for ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS looks fooked up with the front end stuff. It slides it ENE. That's what I was hoping not to happen. I think it's a little bogus. The euro hinted at that a bit though. It seemed to keep the best stuff toward Boston with front thump. Obviously not to extent of new gfs but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The euro hinted at that a bit though. It seemed to keep the best stuff toward Boston with front thump. Obviously not to extent of new gfs but something to watch. I agree it may be more ern areas, but it looked funny on that run. The Mesos sure don't have it to that extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 looks like eastern areas kind of get screwed orh west looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Maybe uncle can be a Dutch uncle tonight. Clobbers WNE/NH with the deformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 In this close and still a wide range of solution on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 I agree it may be more ern areas, but it looked funny on that run. The Mesos sure don't have it to that extent. The hires euro really keyed in on it on the qpf fields I noticed. Big drop off between E MA and 91 corridor midday tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Clobbers WNE/NH with the deformation. I think we have good agreement on this. mpm to Plymouth state may get the stinger good. (Sorry Tip). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Merrimac Valley may get some lovin' on the backlash with that extreme negative tilted CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What model is that? It's not. It's from the NWS Eastern Region Headquarters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 At least the NAM/RGEM/GFS all have the agreement of a decent round 2 for WNE all the way up to Scott and a nice trouncing into Maine. I'm beginning to think that is a clearer element of the storm than the question of/amount of taint in the rest of SNE. Now watch the EC move the second round . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Clobbers WNE/NH with the deformation. The UK's already out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think we have good agreement on this. mpm to Plymouth state may get the stinger good. (Sorry Tip). Thanks for the Plymouth State mention lol. Hopefully you're right but I'm afraid that band will be west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Models....almost a first low that escapes ne which is kind of why the gfs trims back pulse one further away from the coast. Seems reasonable to me. With enough changes coming inside of 18 something tells me that thump 2 is not set in stone either on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The UK's already out? http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grb-comp.cgi?re=ne&mo=ukmet&va=csfcpr&ft=h24&cu=latest&ge=800x630&ti=UTC&id=&zoom=.6 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grb-comp.cgi?re=ne&mo=ukmet&va=csfcpr&ft=h30&cu=latest&ge=800x630&ti=UTC&id=&zoom=.6 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grb-comp.cgi?re=ne&mo=ukmet&va=csfcpr&ft=h36&cu=latest&ge=800x630&ti=UTC&id=&zoom=.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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