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Thursday & Thursday Night Winter Storm Discussion


CT Rain

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some interesting observations  downstream upstream.

 

Danbury/Naugatuck WX@danburyweather26 mins

2hr NAM vs. 9pm obs: 2m temp was very good, however 850s analyzed at 2-4C colder than the NAM forecast across SE VA/NE NC.

 

Fixed that for you.

 

Any sense of how the 18z GFS or 00z EC lined up to current conditions?  Just trying to read the tea leaves.

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to my untrained eyes the RGEM is a tad cooler, makes a big difference for me I think so watching closely.

Its all about that BL temps from 8-5 tommorrow, coastal wx last nite was saying how wind direction is a big key wrt bos area and it prob goes the same for you out to past 128.

I havent heard anything wrt wind direction forecast tendencys for e/ne mass cp wrt when or if winds go from East to north east

30/22 GON

4/-2 ORE

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RGEM verbatim is probably about 6-7" at BOS and more like 10" for the 128 corridor to the northwest and 10-12 out to ORH with some 12"+ lollis in the Berkshires and SW Monadnocks/extreme N ORH hills as they get a better piece of the backlash stuff. Looks like a solid swath of about 6-8" for most of CT into the northern half of RI.

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RGEM verbatim is probably about 6-7" at BOS and more like 10" for the 128 corridor to the northwest and 10-12 out to ORH with some 12"+ lollis in the Berkshires and SW Monadnocks/extreme N ORH hills as they get a better piece of the backlash stuff. Looks like a solid swath of about 6-8" for most of CT into the northern half of RI.

What about NH?

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GFS looks fooked up with the front end stuff. It slides it ENE. That's what I was hoping not to happen. I think it's a little bogus.

 

 

And it rips central areas with the CCB.

 

I can;t buy that model right now. I def don't buy it with the front end stuff.

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GFS looks fooked up with the front end stuff. It slides it ENE. That's what I was hoping not to happen. I think it's a little bogus.

The euro hinted at that a bit though. It seemed to keep the best stuff toward Boston with front thump. Obviously not to extent of new gfs but something to watch.

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