RU848789 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What I find most fascinating on the OKX map is that it almost implies an urban heat island effect on Manhattan, as Manhattan is 6-8" while areas to the S, SE, N and, of course, west, are 8-10". Can't imagine any other reason for Manhattan to be less than Brooklyn or Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There's definitely a strong TROWAL signature to our front-end dump...could easily overperform in many areas. Just trying to learn here. What is Trowal? Seen it mentioned a few times now by some of the better and more knowledgeable posters. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There's definitely a strong TROWAL signature to our front-end dump...could easily overperform in many areas. Hoping where i am i can get a nice 8-12" dump before the front thump ends Dsnow. I dont like to rely on wrap around moisture to up the totals a good bit after a lull in the action. Also looking forward to the possibility of thundersnow as well but think that will be west of me with the best dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ggem news? Ukie thermal profiles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What I find most fascinating on the OKX map is that it almost implies an urban heat island effect on Manhattan, as Manhattan is 6-8" while areas to the S, SE, N and, of course, west, are 8-10". Can't imagine any other reason for Manhattan to be less than Brooklyn or Staten Island. Perhaps. Though what I also found interesting is that there are no 8-10 purples north thru the Bronx and SE westchester. I think it may be an error that will be corrected in future updates. Just doesnt make sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just trying to learn here. What is Trowal? Thanks in advance! Here is a good read on them. https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/290 I think this is what may ultimately push much of Long Island over 6" with the front-end dump. Looping through this radar loop from the SPC WRF shows it pretty well from hours 24 through 28 or so. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/nmmwrf.refc_animate_1h.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabiggiu Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z GGEM loop. Much colder for us down south and awesome CCB!! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here is a good read on them. https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/290 I think this is what may ultimately push much of Long Island over 6" with the front-end dump. Looping through this radar loop from the SPC WRF shows it pretty well from hours 24 through 28 or so. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/nmmwrf.refc_animate_1h.html Man that CCB looks like last FEB , lotta people picked up 8 to 10 when came through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What I find most fascinating on the OKX map is that it almost implies an urban heat island effect on Manhattan, as Manhattan is 6-8" while areas to the S, SE, N and, of course, west, are 8-10". Can't imagine any other reason for Manhattan to be less than Brooklyn or Staten Island. not all snow totals in manhattan are the same i live not to far from the northern end of central park and that seems to be a jackpot area compared to lower manhattan.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Man that CCB looks like last FEB , lotta people picked up 8 to 10 when came through Lets hope she can hold together as she passes through NYC and onto LI and not weaken substantially. Having that low stay closed off as it scoots south of our area will be key to have it maintain its strength as it pivots ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 where does it set up ?? You keep mentioning it but never say where Im more concerned is if it can hold its strength as it moves east across the NYC and monmouth county and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If that GGEM animation is correct, it would be the coldest model out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This shows the TROWAL pretty well. Look at how the 296dam 700mb height contour is bending back to the southwest, and then look at the enhanced lift underneath it. That could help to blitz eastern sections with 2-3"/hr rates at times, with the front-end thump. I don't necessarily see the duration of the front-end dump overperforming, but I think the intensity of it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Im more concerned is if it can hold its strength as it moves east across the NYC and monmouth county and LI. I'm not concerned about it holding its strength (the 500mb low is classic), but rather IF it will even have enough of an easterly component to its movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ggem is pretty cold. Also has a better track for us in the urban areas. The Ccb really cranks over is. Hopefully the euro trends se at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 12z GGEM is spitting out 12-15" for a large area from the front end dump alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ggem is pretty cold. Also has a better track for us in the urban areas. The Ccb really cranks over is. Hopefully the euro trends se at 12z That is interesting because it has been a little to warm with past years storms. I think it did get an upgrade though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The h5 needs to close off to our east, as Costalwx talk about the low going into east LI then into sne will not help us. Nw jersey would be prime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Where are you guys getting your CMC data? None of the graphics are working on either Cowan's site or Maue's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GGEM shows the intense CCB after the dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GGEM is coming in at Ewall... To put it mildly, it would make many here very happy http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The GFS shows the TROWAL being much better defined than the NAM. Look at those "warm" 700mb heights bending back to the SW, and all of that omega underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The GFS shows the TROWAL being much better defined than the NAM. Look at those "warm" 700mb heights bending back to the SW, and all of that omega underneath. Wow! This storm will definitely bring lots of surprises. The ratios could be 12:1 in the front end because of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GGEM doesn't close off at H5 until it's at our latitude, therefore the mid levels dont warm up as much, looks like the NAM runs from yesterday...actually better because we also get the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 By Hour 30 on the GGEM 850s are in Monmouth County and 1.2 - 1.4 inches of liquid has fallen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z GGEM. Low is further east than previous runs. Near the benchmark . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 By Hour 30 on the GGEM 850s are in Monmouth County and 1.2 - 1.4 inches of liquid has fallen Jeez looks like my call of 10-12" just from the front end isnt too far fetched. With the awesome lift, dynamics/VV's an extended period of 2-3" snowfall rates would be likely for all the metro area including LI. Thundersnow must be likely as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I doubt we'll get more than 6" from the front end, probably those just to the N&W will. Disagree...I think we'll end up with 8-10" from the front end easily. The dynamics look amazing and these front end WAA events tend to like to overperform...see January 2011 for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Jeez looks like my call of 10-12" just from the front end isnt too far fetched. With the awesome lift, dynamics/VV's an extended period of 2-3" snowfall rates would be likely for all the metro area including LI. Thundersnow must be likely as well Wait for Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 By Hour 30 on the GGEM 850s are in Monmouth County and 1.2 - 1.4 inches of liquid has fallen The GGEM is picture perfect for almost all on this forum. Wow. And quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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