REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wait for Euro Eh true its been the most west and least snowiest of all the models and the most consistent so that has me greatly concerned at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GGEM is close to 1.5" QPF and its frozen anywhere north of Staten Island for the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is getting very veryyyy interesting... tonight will be fun GGEM is close to 1.5" QPF and its frozen anywhere north of Staten Island for the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GGEM is close to 1.5" QPF and its frozen anywhere north of Staten Island for the majority. Im excited for the GGEM solution and all the other models going crazy with QPF for the front end thump. The EURO is literally the only one that is the least enthusiastic and has been the most consistent, little worrisome to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kyle1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If the Euro tracks even a little further east then what it's been doing, this is going to get just incredibly exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Im excited for the GGEM solution and all the other models going crazy with QPF for the front end thump. The EURO is literally the only one that is the least enthusiastic and has been the most consistent, little worrisome to me The Euro was colder last night and was 8-12" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean last night tracked from Cape May to SE New England. Right or wrong, I would be shocked if the operational shifted much at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 FWIW the 12z JMA tracks the closed off 500mb low into Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The UKMET is pretty cold. The precip is 90% frozen (snow) and the rest of it is mix/rain for KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean last night tracked from Cape May to SE New England. Right or wrong, I would be shocked if the operational shifted much at 12z. Yeah, I agree. It would be almost unheard of to see the Euro shift majority at this point -- even with its thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looking at water vapor, is it me or is that kicker really flying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, I agree. It would be almost unheard of to see the Euro shift majority at this point -- even with its thermal profiles. a 30-50 mile shift east would do wonders...wonder if it holds serve but ticks a bit colder? (as it did last night) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here we go, hour 12 1008mb over the FL Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro a bit slower and a hair farther west through 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hour 18 just off the GA coast. Precip knocking on the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hour 24 sub 1000mb inland over NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 less negatively tilted at 18 compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Closing off at H5 over the southeast. Area getting front end reamed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This run is slightly more positively tilted through 24 hours. Other than that no major changes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm glad everyone is catching on to the front end mega thump. Just look at the slug of moisture inbound. This Deep South gulf specials are just full of water. It's going riiiiip roar I'm the am region wide. Ggem is on the money in my opinion. The issue out here is schools that will plan a delayed opening based on low forecast and change to rain only to be greater by potentially 10 inches before it chamges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 a 30-50 mile shift east would do wonders...wonder if it holds serve but ticks a bit colder? (as it did last night) Euro does like to trend towards the uk...so lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Fully negative tilt by hour 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sub 996mb right on the VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 30 hours still snowing, 850 0c line just south of Staten Island which is a tick south of 00z. Surface low is a bit southeast as well and everything is just a fine hair less amplified. Again, nothing crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You can see the warming coming in after hour 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 850 zero line near Sandy Hook at 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hour 36 sub 988mb low right on the Delaware beaches. Slightly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Dry slot between 30-36...850 0c line is only a bit northwest of NYC. Farther SE by a bit (maybe 15-25 miles) than 00z. But the surface low is farther south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's considerably colder than the NAM at hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is going to show a nice Ccb..crushing in Va. Hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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