ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm telling you...even a 50 mikle shift east on the euro had you getting good snows. It's not a compact storm. I don't buy the compact storm idea. Basically none of the similar setups had a compact storm with maybe the exception fo 1/27/11. But this one looks to have much more latitude push than that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looked closely at GGEM on collaboration site, don't know how well it does with precip depiction but that is more than just ORH getting thumped on the front end, just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Local Boston Met's starting to throw around numbers. Channel 7/WHDH 10-15 inches where all snow (looked like outside of 128), with 5-10 downtown. Todd Gutner on Bz had the snow/rain line futher inland (looked at least out to 495) with 6-12 plus in the all snow area and 6 inches before the change to rain around metro Boston. That was top of the hour update.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well yesterday your forecast was for the 84 corridor to jack ..so maybe you've gone away from that idea..I don't know? No I stand by that. I still like HFD to CON to LEW type axis. My comment wasn't about that, it was more just hoping for a 12+ heavy wet snow is like planning for a jackpot. I think 6-12" would be possible in any solution, with a Ginxy style thump dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'd be weary before discounting the GGEM. It scored quite a big coup a couple weeks ago in the Great Lakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm telling you...even a 50 mikle shift east on the euro had you getting good snows. It's not a compact storm. You'll have to smack me to get that through my head...lol. I've just been looking at too much GFS/NAM and even the 00z GGEM was pretty compact. The 12z UKMET that I posted had me wondering about why the other models were so compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z GEFS looks like it went over 41/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seems like the track is related to the modeled strength quite a bit with this one. More amped models are more neg tilted and pull low west / some capturing. Why would the modeled intensities be so different within 60 hours? Is convective feedback messing with some solutions. Being in Albany, I'm rooting for Euro / Ggem / Ukie, but confidence is quite low at this point. Also worried about sharp SE to NW gradient. Been on the wrong side of those a lot the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I like the fact that we are seeing this one close off further north up towards NE, Somebody is going to get mauled A saving grace for western NE. Stupid to wonder about such things......but I will. I wonder if the warmth of the GFS being at odds with the track of the GFS is reflective of some ying-yang data that wants a track of this, but other parameters are presenting temp profiles of a track further west. In essence having a 'phantom track' in which the actual track would be what you'd envision it SHOULD be with the depicted influx of warmth. I know--stupid to wonder about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A saving grace for western NE. Stupid to wonder about such things......but I will. I wonder if the warmth of the GFS being at odds with the track of the GFS is reflective of some ying-yang data that wants a track of this, but other parameters are presenting temp profiles of a track further west. In essence having a 'phantom track' in which the actual track would be what you'd envision it SHOULD be with the depicted influx of warmth. I know--stupid to wonder about. GGEM is really warm too and it's very close to the coast. Warmth is a problem with this one and always has been, we have a retreating high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You've also got 33-34 water temps. Warmth cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You've also got 33-34 water temps. Warmth cancel Where are you getting your information? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Overall, the GGEM and UKMET are pretty much step-in-step at 72 hours out from 12z today. Amazing that we still have two days worth of model runs to go. We may be seeing those way NW solutions, only to see it tick east in the final 36 hours type deal. We've seen that before this year a bunch, too. For comparison... UKMET at 72 hours. GGEM at 72 hours. Low locations look pretty darn similar. Then this is the GFS at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 News from down sout.... My counterpart down in ATL just told me that ice has started to form on his deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You've also got 33-34 water temps. Warmth cancel In the local pond? It's around 38 off the coast of Boston. And the warmth is aloft that we have to worry about, ocean temps won't do anything to stop that with some of these tracks. We're still seeing pretty violent intra-model changes from most while the GFS slowly creeps one way, the Euro the other. This one won't be decided until one of the models gets Jeff Gillolied by the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Box have maps yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is the GFS slowing the system down? There's much talk about the speed/strength of the kicker. It's really the relative speed of it. If you have a slower southern system, the kicker will have more impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Box have maps yet?okx does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You've also got 33-34 water temps. Warmth cancel Upper 30's chief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Upper 30's chiefLIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Upper 30's chief Thanks.....I thought that sounded a bit lower than realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM is really warm too and it's very close to the coast. Warmth is a problem with this one and always has been, we have a retreating high. We also have some residual ridging holding to our north and/or over us as the main high retreats. At least that is what Kocin said yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 As far as I can tell, most of the models have the significant precip exiting New England (at least west of the river) predawn Friday. Am I interpreting this correctly? I'm thinking of driving up to southern VT (leaving CT around 5AM) Friday morning for a ski day and am thinking it will be mostly over by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Are we still looking at a long duration event? I think tippy mentioned 40 hrs of snow yesterday... I didn't mean that for deterministic forecasting; just that couple of runs of various modeling types, had a quasi-link between the Thursday coastal, and new N-stream impulse cutting through the Lakes. It seemed to suggest a prolonged afterward instability and plausible continuance of lighter snow/wintry appeals. Since that has changed.. In fact, the 12z GGEM has another moderate to approaching major coastal nor-easter for Sunday from those very same dynamics coming out of the Lakes region. Though it's probably subject to change. By the way, this new GGEM (fwiw) solution does flip SE NE over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You've also got 33-34 water temps. Warmth cancel Not to mention surface Air Temp - Grand Banks 55-60°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not a bad look overall to the 12z GEFS members. I also think the GGEM is out to lunch on track based on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You've also got 33-34 water temps. Warmth cancel Upper 30's chief New London, CT 37.9 °F Newport, RI 35.1 °F Quonset Point, RI 35.1 °F Conimicut Light, RI 34.0 °F Providence, RI 34.0 °F Open Sea Buoy Information Place ID Sea Temp Wave Height Eastern Long Island Sound 44060 37 °F - Central Long Island Sound 44039 - - Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 44017 41 °F 2.30 ft Block Island, RI 44097 40 °F 2.95 ft LONG ISLAND NM South of Islip, NY 44025 61 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We also have some residual ridging holding to our north and/or over us as the main high retreats. At least that is what Kocin said yesterday. Sure but that won't help the I95 corridor and east stay in the white with some of these tracks...in fact the GGEm would be right in tossing the drops all the way to the CNE border. There's still good track spread so it's kind of moot anyway. What we have is the models still toying with later interaction and then the pull left vs the GEFS/GFS which say no way and round the track more. One camp is right one is going to be very wrong and the differences for guys like PF are massive. For me...some snow with rain, or mainly rain meh. For you...not much of a difference either way, you get a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 New London, CT 37.9 °F Newport, RI 35.1 °F Quonset Point, RI 35.1 °F Conimicut Light, RI 34.0 °F Providence, RI 34.0 °F Open Sea Buoy InformationPlace ID Sea Temp Wave Height Eastern Long Island Sound 44060 37 °F - Central Long Island Sound 44039 - - Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 44017 41 °F 2.30 ft Block Island, RI 44097 40 °F 2.95 ft LONG ISLAND NM South of Islip, NY 44025 61 °F It's 38-41 east of New England...which is all that really matters moreso than near shore and bay temps. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44098 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's 38-41 east of New England...which is all that really matters moreso than near shore and bay temps. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44098 I figured the coastal influence isn't really driven by the immediate shore temps, but that's the best I could come up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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