12z Models 2/11/2014 | Potential Major Coastal Storm

[user13]

Snowgoose's point about the wind direction and how it applies to the models can't be stressed enough. Models are seeing ESE winds when in reality they are more to the NNE, NE which is why the models are a bit warmer than we would normally expect. Of course if the low tracks too far west, then this logic obviously won't apply until the low starts moving to the ENE away from the coast.

Exactly the nam saw this with mondays storm while the others didnt

[jm1220]

Snowgoose's point about the wind direction and how it applies to the models can't be stressed enough. Models are seeing ESE winds when in reality they are more to the NNE, NE which is why the models are a bit warmer than we would normally expect. Of course if the low tracks too far west, then this logic obviously won't apply until the low starts moving to the ENE away from the coast. 

I'm not concerned about surface warming-the concern is mid level warming. For little or no mixing, we need the mid level lows to go south of us. If the 850 low goes over or west of you, it will definitely get warm enough for rain in the mid levels.

[snywx]

Any way to get a zoomed in version of the GGEM snow amounts. Can't believe it's still over a foot of snow given the taint the GGEM had.

 

Interior bomb.. 

 

Enjoy!

[PB GFI]

Snowgoose's point about the wind direction and how it applies to the models can't be stressed enough. Models are seeing ESE winds when in reality they are more to the NNE, NE which is why the models are a bit warmer than we would normally expect. Of course if the low tracks too far west, then this logic obviously won't apply until the low starts moving to the ENE away from the coast. 

 

Exactly the nam saw this with mondays storm while the others didnt

Yeh but if you have a center at AC you are easterly , You don`t switch until the center comes east of you , so you have to respect the warm punch at 850 

[nyblizz44]

Snowgoose's point about the wind direction and how it applies to the models can't be stressed enough. Models are seeing ESE winds when in reality they are more to the NNE, NE which is why the models are a bit warmer than we would normally expect. Of course if the low tracks too far west, then this logic obviously won't apply until the low starts moving to the ENE away from the coast. 

Its perhaps among the 2 or 3 most salient anysis points thus far today. People rush to nearest bridge when they see a warmer model, one always has to ask why.

[Sn0waddict]

FYI I started a thread for 18z model runs

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42824-18z-models-2112014-potential-major-coastal-storm/

[donsutherland1]

Don,

Is it possible to give approximate snow amounts for nj/ny based on each model in inches.

This will help everyone.

Thanks

With the Euro, I haven't really had a chance to dig into soundings. Very approximate guess, amounts range from 8"14" in Morristown to 5"-10" in NYC. The CCB produces about half of the snow for MMU. NYC sees its 850 mb temperature briefly surge past +3°C.

 

The Euro is a plausible solution. However, it should be noted that there have been cases where the Euro becomes a little overamplified near an event only to back off shortly thereafter. The current model spread certainly allows for such an outcome, but we'll see what happens.

 

The SREFs and NAM will soon weigh in with fresh ideas.

 

If pressed, a first guess would be 4"-8" in NYC, 3"-6" at BLM, and 6"-12" at MMU taking into consideration the guidance through 12z.

[allgame830]

Basically a swath from Philly to Poughkeepsie is 40-50mm

 

That is insane. If the GGEM is correct we would be buried.

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z GGEM is basically 1.5-2.0"  in inches (liquid equivalent) of snow NW of I-95. At a simple 10:1 you do the math.

[ag3]

Don`t like the NAM .   EURO  UKIE GGEM  are  in line for KNYC and points  East . Snow on the front , rain in between  CCB at the end. . 

 

Jan. 26-27, 2011.

[Zelocita Weather]

The 12z GGEM is basically 1.5-2.0"  in inches (liquid equivalent) of snow NW of I-95. At a simple 10:1 you do the math.

What about the EURO, do we know how much snow from that yet?

[BrooklynSnow97]

The 12z GGEM is basically 1.5-2.0" in inches (liquid equivalent) of snow NW of I-95. At a simple 10:1 you do the math.

Yep Even NYC and The 5 Boroughs Are a Foot Plus Verbatim

[Superstorm93]

Crush job. 

 

[ag3]

The 12z GGEM is basically 1.5-2.0"  in inches (liquid equivalent) of snow NW of I-95. At a simple 10:1 you do the math.

 

NYC is 32mm of precip as snow on the 12z ggem.

1.25" LE.

[ILoveWinter]

I think some people are forgetting that we have several more model suites before the storms arrival - perhaps as we have been used to storms popping out of nowhere which reduced number of model suites to track.  Though the margin of change drops as zero hour approaches, additional (and likely somewhat meaningful) changes WILL occur. 

[tdp146]

Ggem total rain

http://i1313.photobucket.com/albums/t547/dwsi91/7f3da1e91688ae1bc5188d29e4db7cc6_zps33318d86.jpg

Focusing on LI, Nassau and Suffolk east: 15-20mm of snow (5-8 inches), followed by 40mm+ rain (1.5 inches). mega slop. Can that be right?

[ZNSTATED]

Newb here can't find the definition of CCB. It's killing me not knowing. I apologize if this is not the place for this question

[Stormlover74]

Crush job. 

 

wrf_2014021112_ref_arw_east.gif

Probably way off but pretty to look at

[psuhoffman]

From this thread I still don't know if its a raging blizzard or a complete disaster.

You get a decent front end thump for 6-8 hours...then

 

NNJ gets some decent CCB snows at the end but NYC itself never changes back over to all snow.

Those snowfall maps have faulty calculations, they assume stuff is snow that is not snow.  They are only good in situations where you don't have to worry about a warm layer somewhere. 

[Stormlover74]

Newb here can't find the definition of CCB. It's killing me not knowing. I apologize if this is not the place for this question

Basically if you are underneath it you snow hard and heavy...cold conveyor belt

[jm1220]

Focusing on LI, Nassau and Suffolk east: 15-20mm of snow (5-8 inches), followed by 40mm+ rain (1.5 inches). mega slop. Can that be right?

GGEM is probably overdone and too warm. I don't think even the Euro was that bad. But hopefully we see a shift back east tonight on these models, they are amped enough that a fair amount of rain becomes a concern on the coast.

[user13]

Yeh but if you have a center at AC you are easterly , You don`t switch until the center comes east of you , so you have to respect the warm punch at 850 

Yea Paul if it does end up next to AC we would be in some trouble. I am not buying it yet though. I still think it goes slightly (30 - 50 miles) west over the warmer water. I remember arguing this last year with the Feb storm, which ultimately happened. The gradient of ther SST will also increase once it kicks up the southerly swell.

[Juliancolton]

Newb here can't find the definition of CCB. It's killing me not knowing. I apologize if this is not the place for this question

This is a good resource.

[yankeex777]

Newb here can't find the definition of CCB. It's killing me not knowing. I apologize if this is not the place for this question

 

CCB=Cold Conveyor Belt

[nyblizz44]

Newb here can't find the definition of CCB. It's killing me not knowing. I apologize if this is not the place for this question

CCB= Cold Conveyer belt (typically found in a comma head in an intensfying low pressure)

[Stormlover74]

Yea Paul if it does end up next to AC we would be in some trouble. I am not buying it yet though. I still think it goes slightly (30 - 50 miles) west over the warmer water. I remember arguing this last year with the Feb storm, which ultimately happened. The gradient of ther SST will also increase once it kicks up the southerly swell.

Even if it does end up near AC it goes ENE after that not due north so I would think that will really affect where the mix/changeover ends up

[PB GFI]

Jan. 26-27, 2011.

Yes , then it comes down to do you rain for 3 hours 5 hours or 8 hours , and that`s the difference at the end if we end up with  8 - 10 - 12 

[PB GFI]

Yea Paul if it does end up next to AC we would be in some trouble. I am not buying it yet though. I still think it goes slightly (30 - 50 miles) west over the warmer water. I remember arguing this last year with the Feb storm, which ultimately happened. The gradient of ther SST will also increase once it kicks up the southerly swell.

Coming off OBX and to the mouth of the Delaware , i just don`t see the confluence to jump this east . 

I think its on the coast and was hoping to see the Euro come 25 - 50  mile east , it didn`t , kissed the coast 

[user13]

Coming off OBX and to the mouth of the Delaware , i just don`t see the confluence to jump this east . 

I think its on the coast and was hoping to see the Euro come 25 - 50  mile east , it didn`t , kissed the coast 

Yea we still have time to change, a 50 mile shift is nothing esp this winter (in this time frame) lol. The SST boundary from what I observed is usually where the cape and other dynamics hit a wall. So heavier thunderstorms will normally be more to the east (in this case) and help pull the lowest pressure towards them.

[REDMK6GLI]

For those like me on the coast you better hope for more of a UKMET/NAM/GFS compromise. I dont like to rely on wraparound moisture as it almost never works out and ends up just being light. The EURO still being the western most of the guidance is worrisome. We still have to 0z and tommorows 12z though to see if it can tick east like 40-50 miles